So, what is the price hike going to look like?

[crimsondave]

If the price of a box of Deathwing Knights goes from $60 to $66 at my discount retailer it’s not going to stop me from buying it.

[LameBeard]

You can’t have it both ways @Captain Idaho. GW is a public company which seeks to maximise profits. If it can maximise profits by putting up prices, it will. If it can maximise profits by building US manufacturing facilities, it should. Given that they create new products all the time, moulds don’t need to be moved, factory 4 could be in the US and start from scratch. Some models could be made there and exported back to UK/rest of world, and some carry on being UK-built and go the other way, waving to each other as they cross the Atlantic.

 

They already experimented with terrain and books made in China, so it’s possible. 
 

Personally I would have wanted GW to do this a year or two ago. Right now, investment in the US looks tricky though - investors like stability and policy doesn't looks stable from the outside.

 

Mods - if this is too close to politics, sorry, please delete and I’ll just add some lame joke instead.

[Captain Idaho]

We'll have the joke anyway!

 

I don't think it's political, rather just reference to economic events relevant to our holy plastic.

 

Anyway, I'm not having it both ways as such, rather expressing an objective observation (as I interpret it of course) of what GW are doing (or potentially doing) but also discussing in the same discussion a throwaway comment of morality, that is a personal view.

 

To clarify, I agree with what you've said here as a concept GW will move towards most probably if it's financially still expedient in the next year or so:

 

20 minutes ago, LameBeard said:

If it can maximise profits by building US manufacturing facilities, it should. Given that they create new products all the time, moulds don’t need to be moved, factory 4 could be in the US and start from scratch. Some models could be made there and exported back to UK/rest of world, and some carry on being UK-built and go the other way, waving to each other as they cross the Atlantic.

 

Regarding prices going up, I reference "greed" etc on a personal opinion towards the savoury nature, or lack thereof, of operating to take advantage of a market.

 

However, the issue is Games Workshop customers are often hidebound into supporting them since their social lives and often sense of self is tied to their hobbies, so the bar for purchasing extortionate priced items is higher.

 

It shouldn't be, I don't and I urge all not to buy a new model for £2,000 just because they'd like it, but folk do and as such ripping people off is going to continue.

 

Essentially what I'm saying, in a loose analogy unfortunately, is if people are still buying a car despite it being 6 times the cost of its worth, a company will continue to sell it at that price until people STOP buying it.

 

Lastly, I most certainly don't excuse GW's behaviour of selling at a higher price than they really should because we accept it, with a concept that they keep funds tucked away for a rainy day, as if it is some sort of moral choice.

 

Nah they ain't. They're making massive profits at the expense of people who will pay it. Let's not kid ourselves.

 

(Tried to be tongue in cheek again, to keep fresh and casual topic going)

[Antarius]

My guess is GW might do a “wait and see” for a while, because there’s a real possibility that the tariffs are just a fluke and might go away (whether or not they’ll cause an economic crisis first is another matter, but that’s way beyond the scope of this thread). But yeah, if the tariffs are there to stay, prices are going up - and not just on Warhammer, but on a whole lot of other goods, which will probably mean you will have less to spend on Warhammer in the first place.

 

As for a factory in the US, it might be a good idea, but don’t hold your breath. Firstly, it takes quite a bit of time to establish a factory (not to mention finding workers; I’m not sure how many people with specific skills are needed at a Warhammer factory, but if they’re not already there, you either need to find them and convince them to move there or train them locally which takes time). Secondly, there’s the question of whether GW leadership think it’s a good idea in the current situation; in any case, I really don’t think they’ll do it just to get around tariffs.

Edited Sunday at 03:20 PM by Antarius

[LameBeard]

Hey I appreciate your good humour in the response, @Captain Idaho. What I was saying is that “a higher price than they really should” is a very radical argument. In a market economy, supply=demand determines the price. If someone else determines the price at what it “should” be, then you will need a rationing mechanism.  So far, so predictable, economics 101.

 

But your earlier point is much more interesting “their social lives and often sense of self is tied to their hobbies”.  What can we do as a community to help people here? Because I see this hobby having a host of benefits, sometimes it’s peaceful solitude when painting, sometimes it’s a great bonding time with friends over a battle. But if anyone thinks they need the newest, shiniest thing to take part in that, they are wrong.

 

I spend on the fringes of this hobby: eBay second-hand deals, box-splitting, FLGS discounts. I am trying to send the signal to GW that I won’t pay their prices. But I still buy more than I paint. I still can’t say I *need* more. It would be ridiculous to accuse GW of forcing me into poverty through their prices - we are a million miles from that.  Yet there are people struggling and at the margin this hobby could be more inclusive. 
 

sorry it got serious, lame jokes delayed.

Edited Sunday at 03:25 PM by LameBeard

[Captain Idaho]

5 hours ago, LameBeard said:

But your earlier point is much more interesting “their social lives and often sense of self is tied to their hobbies”.  What can we do as a community to help people here? Because I see this hobby having a host of benefits, sometimes it’s peaceful solitude when painting, sometimes it’s a great bonding time with friends over a battle. But if anyone thinks they need the newest, shiniest thing to take part in that, they are wrong.

 

Probably a very serious discussion and fraught with ill feeling or at least the potential for such a reaction. Likely most people wouldn't consider themselves to have such an issue or recognise their attachment.

 

But economically yes - getting people financially independent is quite desirable and I don't necessarily mean income. If we as a community have to be catered to by a company and earned rather than expected, we'd see much more fairer (in our eyes) pricing and releases more attuned to our desires.

 

(Desires like T8 Ultramarines and Tau all moved to legends, of course)

 

Possibly moving off into a separate direction though.

Edited Sunday at 09:23 PM by Captain Idaho
Spelling for the spelling gods

[LameBeard]

21 minutes ago, Captain Idaho said:

Desires like …  Tau all moved to legends, of course

Victimless crime

[Dark Shepherd]

Good news for US fans is the increase hopefully wont be 10% from what Ive read on Forbes

 

Tarrifs are based on declared value at PORT OF ENTRY, not a flat sales tax. That value can exclude marketing, haulage, warehousing, retail costs etc; its more for raw materials/components

 

So Jimmy Workshop sells a box of Obsessors for $100, cost is $30 plus 70% margin. But when Frank Sobotka unloads that shipping container from GW, GW can say on the manifest those Obsessors are only worth eg $10 or $15. Which would be a 5% retail price increase or less

 

Thered also the easy PR win for GW to say we are (or even doing) "absorbing" most or all of the 10% kinda like at start of Brexit

 

 

[AenarIT]

18 hours ago, Antarius said:

My guess is GW might do a “wait and see” for a while, because there’s a real possibility that the tariffs are just a fluke and might go away (whether or not they’ll cause an economic crisis first is another matter, but that’s way beyond the scope of this thread). But yeah, if the tariffs are there to stay, prices are going up - and not just on Warhammer, but on a whole lot of other goods, which will probably mean you will have less to spend on Warhammer in the first place.

 

As for a factory in the US, it might be a good idea, but don’t hold your breath. Firstly, it takes quite a bit of time to establish a factory (not to mention finding workers; I’m not sure how many people with specific skills are needed at a Warhammer factory, but if they’re not already there, you either need to find them and convince them to move there or train them locally which takes time). Secondly, there’s the question of whether GW leadership think it’s a good idea in the current situation; in any case, I really don’t think they’ll do it just to get around tariffs.

Agreed on this. I don't see an historically risk-averse company like GW (do they still have zero debt and finance everything with cash only?), proud of manufacturing basically everything in Nottingham under the close supervision of the WH Studio guys, open a factory abroad. 
It would need to be a factory able to produce everything there in order to avoid tariffs, not just some kits otherwise you'd have wild pricing discrepancies.

But at the same time they talk about Factory 4 in Nottingham at a time where their first 3 factories are not able to manufacture enough minis to satisfy market demand. That ipothetical US factory would need to be massive. I just don't see it. 

I think it's more likely they'll simply hike prices next month and then wait for a change in the economic/political environment. 

[N1SB]

Over the weekend I talked with a former CEO of a FTSE 100 British company that did a lot of business with the U.S.

 

I now have 100% confidence that I HAVE NO IDEA what's going to happen...but if GW already had a pricing update lined up, which I honestly believe they do, precisely because it's impossible to predict what'll happen next. So the easiest move is just go ahead with what's already been planned, and if there are to be further adjustments, figure it out NEXT fiscal year (GW's fiscal year begins in June, which is why we're anticipating a pricing update soon).

 

 

+++ GW's pricing updates are kinda mechanical +++

 

 

GW actually has a formula related to their pricing updates.  They openly discuss it, like in the last half-year report:

 

 

They use "core gross margin", which means the profitability of what the stuff they make, from raw "Materials" to "Carriage" costs to get those minis to your Warhammer Store, FLGS or online retailer, etc.  Their target is to have it at 70%, that was something set by the previous CEO.

 

So it was at 69.4%...that's so close to 70% they used to leave it alone, like it's not worth changing price tags, to 67.5%, which has traditionally been around when they decide to yank that core gross margin back up to try to hit 70% (and sometimes they overshoot, then they'll leave it alone for a year).

 

(There's a few things I don't know what's going on in this chart, like imho "Design" and "Animation" should NOT be here...but GW knows, so they'll stick with their own plan.)

 

So GW's pricing update is largely to feed this formula.  It's pretty fuzzy logic.  What's more, it's subject to change.

 

 

+++ Even the bits to GW's own formula WILL change +++

 

 

The recent disturbance in the force is so substantial even the inputs in this formula WILL change.

 

So what if GW announces a pricing update in WhC.

 

Then all of us...Hobbyists, FLGSes, their own employees who all need to know, ask GW, how much?

 

Then GW's like, uh...we have no idea because things are in flux.  Then maybe make up a number, like 3% to 5%.

 

For things like this, they do build a forecast of predicted costs, all these department heads have to submit some sort of projection, but whatever they submit, is either completely out-of-date now in lieu of recent events or just made up.  This is one of those times where you just submit a number knowing you'll get chewed out either way.

 

(We've all done this, right?  Like we email to our bosses some forecast in compliance of a policy, and it might as well be RNG.)

 

The current CEO is a Pricewaterhouse Cooper guy, like he worked at GW forever, but was trained in PwC.  Very thorough professionals.  Even if they're wrong, they follow their own wrong system consistently.  It's like in Warhammer, you paint an army that doesn't quite follow the official heraldry, but it's consistent across all the models, it looks okay.

 

So what I reckoned was, if they put something out, they'd follow this system.  If they couldn't, they wouldn't put it out there.

 

 

+++ What this CEO showed me +++

 

 

If there's 1 universal thing I've observed among CEOs, it's that they're very aware on the Metawatch of the economy, a.k.a. Macroeconomics.  That's like interest rates and federal reserves, which is not the sexy stuff like advertising campaigns or streaming deals or disruptive technologies like AI.

 

I spoke with him about this stuff, and he stopped me in my tracks, "So what'd you think will happen with (the currency) exchange rates?"

 

It sounds like a random question, but no, we're talking about U.S. tariffs and U.S. customers and U.S. partners like FLGSes of this UK company, so of course it's relevant.  What if the changes in the exchange rate really help prop up GW's performance...which is EXACTLY what happened a few years ago, especially with GW.

 

It was around the release of 30k/Horus Heresy/AoD 2.0.  The UK govt released a mini-budget that crashed the UK economy and £GBP.

 

£GBP went down, GW accepts a lot of $US, when translated back into £GBP it was a lot more money, GW looked better than it was.

 

He wasn't trying to trip me up, but when reminded of this, I realised the questions were way bigger than what I was asking about.  He would go on to explain there is a U.S. currency angle to the tariffs, then also this paradox involving what the U.S. federal reserve has to do with interest rates, etc.

 

 

+++ "1st, invent the universe" +++

 

 

Thanks for reading so far, but let's take a break.  Let's talk about something more light-hearted.

 

There was this guy called Carl Sagan.  He was the media-friendly astrophysicist of the '80s, dude was awesome.

 

He once presented an apple pie recipe: "If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must 1st invent the universe."

 

That's the problem with the very reasonable, appropriate question of this thread right now.  To answer how GW will announce the presumed price hike that I think we all are expecting around this time, as it's when GW announces it, sometime between March to May, I have to predict the entire New World Order.  I cannot.

 

So my conclusion is as follows.  If GW had already worked out their pricing update plan, when they're going to announce it, how much it would be, they'll go ahead as already planned ignoring the recent tariff announcement.  If they hadn't, then they would wait and see, to "1st invent the universe."

 

I now believe GW won't bother to 1st invent the universe, and proceed with whatever flawed pricing update, regardless of the announced tariffs.

 

 

+++ Afterward +++

 

 

Btw, this CEO gave me a very chilling answer when asked if a UK company would adjust its U.S. prices due to U.S. tariffs.

 

He gave this shrug and a quick shake of the head, "That's between Americans and their government."  And that was that.

[Marshal Rohr]

A 40 dollar box is now 44 dollars. A hundred dollar box is 110. It sucks [redacted] and will kill a lot of projects. 

[Antarius]

27 minutes ago, Marshal Rohr said:

A 40 dollar box is now 44 dollars. A hundred dollar box is 110. It sucks [redacted] and will kill a lot of projects. 

Yeah, and let's face it, even if GW decide not to raise prices (which is, historically speaking, shall we say "unlikely") lots of hobby projects are going to be killed off simply by the price of other stuff going up.

[Vassakov]

Interesting article from Goonhammer here: https://www.goonhammer.com/tariffs-and-you-the-gamer/

 

There's a few bits in there, but they seem much more optimistic for GW given their UK base and vertical integration as an entity, and as speculated there does remain the option for them to absorb the tariff whilst some of their competition can't or won't on a proportion of their products.

 

The other interesting point which has gone unmentioned is the usual crowd who just argue "3D printers" - they're mostly Chinese manufactured, and could have a 56% tariff stapled to them for our American friends. Not sure where the resin/plastic you put in them comes from, but that could be going up significantly as well...

[Joe]

Tariffs aside, so long as operational costs (notably, electric and gas) continue to rise in the UK there'll be annual price rises. Anecdotal, but having seen my employers annual electric bill shift from just under £400,000 into the multi-millions of pounds practically overnight I can't imagine how high Games Workshop's have gotten - even with the offset measures they have in place.

 

 

[sairence]

I have my doubts that GW will see this an encouragement for expanding production to the US. 

 

We've had plenty of discussion about why they haven't done so previously, none of those reasons have gone away.

 

Next, given their long term out of stock issues, any loss in sales is unlikely to mean they will end up sitting on A bunch of unsold stock.

 

But the biggest reason, to my basic economic knowledge, is that long-term investment like this wants one thing above all else: regulatory security. The ability to plan ahead and the framework they operate an invest in staying as expected by their plans. No random snap decisions that change the environment in which your investment happens. I'm sure there's a fancy technical term for it.

 

And I think it's safe to say that the last thing we're going to have the next few years, especially when it comes to the US, is a steady, reliable framework to invest in.

Edited 23 hours ago by sairence

[phandaal]

3 hours ago, Vassakov said:

Interesting article from Goonhammer here: https://www.goonhammer.com/tariffs-and-you-the-gamer/

 

Good info, although something tells me the author was already not a huge fan of our current US President. 

 

3 hours ago, Vassakov said:

The other interesting point which has gone unmentioned is the usual crowd who just argue "3D printers" - they're mostly Chinese manufactured, and could have a 56% tariff stapled to them for our American friends.

 

Spoiler

 

Wait, wrong meme for the occasion... Well, good thing I just rediscovered a massive trove of old pewter models in my garage. Time to get to stripping and repainting! There is not a tariff on Isopropyl Alcohol is there?

[Dark Shepherd]

5 hours ago, Antarius said:

Yeah, and let's face it, even if GW decide not to raise prices (which is, historically speaking, shall we say "unlikely") lots of hobby projects are going to be killed off simply by the price of other stuff going up.

If GW raise US prices by 10% thatd be A. a not very nice move on their part and B. a new floor/base for their prices, combo that with built in price increases and that could be a bad narrowing of their customer base 

[darkhorse0607]

1 hour ago, Dark Shepherd said:

that could be a bad narrowing of their customer base 

 

 

 

This is the conversation I'd very much like to be a fly on the wall for in their offices.

 

We know due to interviews, ex-GW staffers leaving (everywhere from store management to designers), etc, that GW over the last few years has placed a lot of emphasis not so much on the retention of veteran hobbyists (although it has been a part which you can see with things like old sculpts being redesigned rather than brand new ones), but on bringing in new customers to cover the base that leaves and expand. It's why they do all the starter sets, why a metric that GW managers are judged is by how many starter boxes they sell, etc.

 

But now, if all of these things continue, it seems like they're going to need to really push to get the existing hobbyists to stick around. Those people are going to be the ones that continue to stick by GW and buy things (albeit probably less understandably) throughout this whole mess. A essentially $200 initial investment after hobby supplies and models, is going to be an incredibly difficult sell to a new hobbyist once the price of living skyrockets with things like a gazillion percent tariff on penguins on an uninhabited island and China.

 

I just wonder if they choose to keep the course, or make a slight course change and start trying to retain folks/keep those veterans around more than they have. Or if the risk of losing even more customers with an additional price rise is enough to give them pause. Or if it's like I said a few days ago, "yolo price increases"

 

I'm not even necessarily talking about prices in general, but maybe they shift away from the massive ultra-expensive box sets, towards individual releases again, or at least launch them simultaneously to get a least get some sales rather than folks steering away due to the price of the box. Stuff like that

Edited 19 hours ago by darkhorse0607

[N1SB]

 

Because history is not the study of dates and names and kings and wars.  History is the study of change.

 

Here's 2 sets of data points, of GW 10 years ago (right before AoS) and last year, because we have complete figures.  GW recently kinda put the UK and Continental Europe in the same bin for a few years, so this is the most accurate representation.  I committed to you to share this earlier, so promises made promises kept as they say.

 

USED to be, The Hobby was roughly 1/3rd in the UK, 1/3rd in Europe, 1/3rd in the North America., then this remainder 10% elsewhere.

 

NOW, The Hobby is roughly HALF in North America, half in the UK and Europe COMBINED, and there's still this remainder 10% elsewhere.

 

(The Hobby is also about 5 times what it used to be between these 2 points in history, but you see the change.)

 

This is to show why I'm looking at the U.S. tariffs, I reckon this is why YOU're looking at the U.S. tariffs, too.  The Hobby is expensive enough as it is.  I really don't like this surtax on top of our American Frateri anymore than the surtax on our Australian Frateri.  We were JUST watching Adepticon in the U.S. earlier.

 

 

+++ This reminded me of something +++

 

 

Remember the Pokemon Wars, when Pokemon was "stealing" Warhammer players (they weren't, Hobbyists don't belong to GW, they want to play Pokemon, let them play Pokemon, companies are supposed to compete), a certain online game "journalists" wrote of how it completely hobbled Warhammer forever, the sky was falling.

 

The competition was everywhere, but it was felt most acutely in the UK then Europe, but here's GW's breakdown at the time:

 

 

The sky was falling from a net of -1% growth.  This was the end of the world, according to certain online game "journalists".

 

What I compared this to previously was imagine Pokemon and Warhammer were playing a game of 40k.  Pokemon was on Warhammer's home objective.  Warhammer was on Pokemon's home objective.  Both sides were scoring Linebreaker and stuff.  That's competition, what companies are SUPPOSED to do.

 

That was the year 2000.  What was the breakdown of regions?  Was it about 1/3rd UK/Europe/North America?

 

 

Back then GW financial annual reports went for cutesy crap, like they'd have their miniatures holding up Revenue figures or something.

 

These ink splotches are supposed to represent the relative size of GW's markets and...ok, I concede, it's pretty effective, it's the 1/3rds.

 

Brother Crimson Dave isn't wrong...if he wants Deathwing Knights, by the God Emperor, he will BUY Deathwing Knights.

 

But neither is everyone else here...the Hobby is already really expensive, it's already taxed, a tariff is a surtax on everything else.

 

I feel for the FLGSes.  They already can't get the right stuff, already pissed at GW reps, how much more can they take.

[N1SB]

13 hours ago, Vassakov said:

Interesting article from Goonhammer here: https://www.goonhammer.com/tariffs-and-you-the-gamer/

 

CCGs like MtG is printed in Belgium?  Are you frigging kidding me?  They're paper!  You have...trees in the U.S.!

 

Edit - I've had breakfast, I can now say something actually productive and useful now.

 

 

+++ What a great article +++

 

 

The author's sharing of his personal practices, and he's a practiced hand, is most worth reading.

 

So he makes RPGs, try to sell them at "10x", 10 times his production cost.  He mentions it includes shipping and tariffs.  It doesn't include his labour writing the RPGs, it's only to like print copies of his creation out and get them on shelves.  Poor shlubs could only get 5x.

 

The 10x is a practiced shorthand, classic manufacturers' jargon.  Like I gotta make 10x what it cost, to make it worth the marketing, etc.

 

How does it compare to GW?  He makes 10x, some poor schmuck only makes 5x.  Translated, GW's gross profit margin of 70% is only around 3x.  What GW sells, their profit is 70%, their cost is 30%, so about 3 times, and that's not including tax.  So maybe GW should make their own RPGs.

(No, GW shouldn't make their own RPGs, or video games...because licensing is like 100% profits ahahahaha.)

 

What's not included even in this 3x?  It doesn't even include the costs of Warhammer Stores, which is GW's biggest expense.

 

 

+++ He mentioned GW's old Shanghai manufacturing facilities +++

 

 

The author's just a little bit outdated, but his point is well-taken.  He implies how GW still has facilities in Shanghai, for terrain, and he's not stupid, in fact I think it's precisely because he did his research and still saw boxes in his FLGS that say "Designed in Nottingham, made in China."

 

It was you guys that told me that wasn't the case anymore, and in recent reports GW mentioned they shuttered their Shanghai op.

 

But his main point stands, like even I associated Wizards of the Coast as a U.S. company, it's literally in Seattle on the U.S. coast, thus the name.  And I had no idea the cards themselves were printed in Belgium of all places.  I'm a regular consumer of Belgian goods, like trappist ale, by monks.

 

And that point is, we buy stuff and we have no idea where it comes from.  The implication is, you might not know where a tariff will hit when you implement them.  The only difference is I think you know EXACTLY where the tariff will hit: YOUR wallets.  But point well-taken.

 

 

+++ Final, final point +++

 

 

1 thing the CEO reminded me: the UK got hit with the lightest of tariffs, the bare baseline of 10%.

 

It sucks that our American Frateri and Sororitas will pay a surcharge for Warhammer, but it'll likely be the smallest thing affecting them.  Nearly everything else in their lives will be even more expensive...including even MtG cards apparently.

 

The fact that ever-increasing Warhammer prices will be the least of your worries is such a depressing thought, I don't even

Edited 12 hours ago by N1SB

[Gillyfish]

Amusingly, Channel 4 news in the Uk has decided to release a TikTok explaining the potential effect of the tariffs using 40K miniatures…

 

As others have said, waiting and seeing a bit makes sense if you are GW. There’s a lot of turmoil right now. It may settle, it may not. Another thought is that GW have slightly more clout now as a FTSE 100 firm and can probably get the eat a few MPs, should they wish to, which may help obtain trade carve outs behind the scenes if these are required. A manufacturing facility could be a deal sweetener as part of that negotiation of course.

[Captain Idaho]

In contrast, many of the top companies around the world are seeing their value diminish due to a drop on stock markets. Whilst Games Workshop are up today, past 5 days are down quite sharply.

 

Value of the company could be shored up with a price rise, as it represents stability of profit for the shareholders and as mentioned above... their routine of sticking to their plan.

 

We'll see a price rise, then if it isn't enough, we'll see another one later in the year.

[Marshal Rohr]

Everyone needs to start doing the Shoebody Bop that Barron is a 40K fan.