[Discuss!] GW Annual Financial Report 2025 (Space Marine II bump, Factory 4, etc.)

[N1SB]

As per our B&C bi-annual tradition, we're preparing to talk about Games Workshop's financial report when it lands this week.

 

Why?  Because as a U.S. Midwestern farmer, who are all financial experts, said to me, "Know where your food comes from."

 

Prediction: GW will report ABOUT £610 million Revenue and just under £240 million Profit.  Growth is on par with a 40k year.

 

Actual: GW reported £617 million Revenue and £261.3 million Profit, WAY OVER expected.  Growth EXCEEDED a 40k year.  But my absolute favourite bit is from their new chairman:

 

 

He didn't say "Warhammer customer" or "Warhammer player."  He called himself a "hobbyist."

 

 

+++ How were last year's predictions? +++

 

Where we were right: we were 100% right GW would enter the FTSE 100, and that tariff's slated to stay at 10%.

 

Where I was wrong: though expected, I was 100% wrong about GW price increases updates.  I'm glad to be wrong.

 

What I completely missed: Necron Wraiths and Crypteks went DOWN in points cost.  Did not see that coming.

 

 

+++ This year's story to "business news media" +++

 

So you know GW does 3-year product cycles.  40k, then Age of Sigmar, then Horus Heresy.  This report is about an AoS year.

(For reference, 40k is a HUGE growth year, then it levels off for AoS, then it's kinda janky with HH.  40k is the high watermark.)

 

But actually AoS is not the real story.  The video game Space Marine II is the breakout star.  Its licensing revenue is pure profit.

 

That's what every business news article will be reporting on, then maybe link it to the Amazon streaming series negotiations.

 

Prediction: The CEO will declare, "Record licensing Revenue!  But don't expect a repeat until Space Marine III comes out."  Actual, I'm going to make a personal note here; I'm looking at my projections and, the CEO will never, ever confess this, but I think he held off price increases during a year of record energy costs...huge to GW as it needs to melt plastic into miniatures...because he knew there would be this massive Profit bump from a video game to offset it, hoping no one would notice.  Remember, even he only holds his job at the pleasure of shareholders.

 

Actual:

 

 

 

+++ This year's story to us, actual Hobbyists +++

 

I don't speak for us all, but I'm thinking, did the video Space Marine II bring players from screens to the tabletop?

 

GW has NOT categorised Revenue by 40k/AoS/HH/etc.  It DOES separate Core (i.e. its stuff) vs. Licensing (i.e. royalties).

 

So we MAY see a bump from Space Marine II conversion to the Hobby separated from the royalties GW gets.

 

To keep myself honest, I can think of at least 2 ways where there may be indicators of this, maybe more:

 

1. Is this year's Core Revenue growth way higher than other AoS launch years?  That'd be a bump
2. AoS 4th came in July, Space Marine II and Titus mini in Sept.  Were sales more back-loaded?

 

There may be other signs, like little glitches in the Matrix, that we'll know when we see them.

 

Prediction: It's hard.  It assumes AoS is growing like previously, and a huge, observable bump from Space Marine II.

 

Actual: There's a huge observable bump from beyond AoS AND other signs.  I think I can convince you with 3 images.

 

 

I said above what all you already know, 40k is a HUGE growth year, then it levels off for AoS, then it's kinda janky with HH.

 

8th ed came out 2017, spike in 2018.  9th ed out 2020, huge spike in 2021.  10th ed was weird because of "head of lettuce".

 

(I won't go into it, but there were political reasons which caused currency fluctuations, so 10th ed seems smaller than it was.)

 

AoS years...and I LOVE their miniatures, my favourite game is Warcry...usually performs below 40k.  This year, it BLEW past 40k.

 

I've confirmed it via their breakdown of Core Revenue (i.e. GW's own products) vs. Licensing Revenue (from 3rd parties).

 

Then there was a glitch in the Matrix where GW lets slip something innocuous.  It was in gross profit margin (i.e. price hikes).

 

 

(Before I forget, remember GW aims for a core gross margin of 70% and will increase prices to match that.  It's pretty much as close as you can get without inventing new forms of mathematics at 69.5%, I will NOT say any more as not to jinx us.  Oh, unless you're our American Fraters et Sororitas, YOU can get a price increase due to tariffs, more below.)

 

"...as SOME of our new product releases sold to BELOW planned levels in the FIRST half of the year."

 

(That's got this company-wide email vibe like, "SOME people, who will not be named...")

 

What'd be so big that it would cause a disturbance in the Force?  Probably unsold AoS 4th ed sets.

 

So it implies AoS undersold, yet overall sales were like a 40k year...but WHERE did those sales come from?

 

Translation: Trade is FLGS or Walmart, etc.  Retail is Warhammer Stores.  Online is JUST GW's webstore.

 

Imagine yourself as totally new, you JUST learned about 40k through Space Marine II or that Amazon animation.

 

Seriously, it's harder to forget than to remember, but try.  You're new.  Where would you go to look for 40k stuff?

 

New players would go to the shops they know, they've driven past it, that sell D&D and baseball cards, MAYBE a Warhammer Store.  Because you want to see the actual miniatures for the 1st time yourself, in realspace, not the immaterium of the GW website.  Those places for Neophytes are exactly where the growth is happening, very heavily in what GW calls their Trade channel.

 

GW got this huge bump beyond normal AoS years, then a hint that AoS prolly didn't grow that much, and the source of growth being exactly where a 1st time Hobbyist would go.  The thing that I missed was I didn't watch that Amazon animated series episode, I know it's by the same guys that did Love Death Robots, but somewhere between those, huge influx of players.

 

 

+++ Other forever stories +++

 

There have been ongoing stories with GW that never seem to end: Amazon deal, Factory 4, IT, tariffs.

 

Amazon Prediction: GW will continue to have meetings for negotiations for more meetings to negotiate.

 

 

Factory 4 Prediction: GW cleared some hurdle to build Factory 4 until they clear the next hurdle.

 

 

This is actually a pretty big deal and Factory 4 has been way more interesting to me, because it's the bottleneck for everything else.  GW can't grow without more miniatures to sell EXCEPT by raising prices, it won't bother opening too many new stores if they don't got product to sell.  You play 40k completely differently when you think you can contest an objective vs. just hold on to the ones you got.  For any business entity, WE'RE the objectives, they fight for us harder if they think they can score Victory Points.  No product, no VPs.

 

IT Prediction: GW will continue to upgrade its IT infrastructure until they need to upgrade again.

 

Yup.

 

Tariff Prediction: Report will use some jargon "we will continue monitoring the situation," etc.

 

 

So apparently there's also a bat problem.  Send in that Callidus or whatever to kill Curze pls.

 

Thanks to Brother Vassakov and Brother Joe below.  So this is a protected species!?

 

 

+++ Personal note this year +++

 

I'm being brief, only because I'm reading up on all the Horus Heresy rules.  I'm bringing back the Shattered Xth, baby!

Edited yesterday at 03:51 PM by N1SB

[Captain Idaho]

Yeah I'm looking forward to it.

 

And you raise a great point that none of us seemed to predict or anticipate last time around... the price increases were held off because of record profits in licensing, likely to be implemented next year.

 

Partly this is also because price rises still occur even in years without declared price increases with how they seem to do conversion work (sorry Oz friends) but also new releases coming in at s higher level, boxed sets being adjacent to standard pricing and crucially stealth increases...

 

Anyway, my prediction is next year we'll see a price increase that encompasses the price increases opportunity missed this year. Actually a bonus prediction - fall/winter price increases will occur to compensate for energy costs etc soaring.

 

Question - do we think HH will see a bumper increase in sales this year? I feel like it should, but I suspect longevity we won't.

[apologist]

As always, thank-you for your commentary and insights. I know very little about the technowizardry of financials, so appreciate being led through.

[darkhorse0607]

I've heard that reading these counts as credit hours towards an MBA so I'm here for another one

 

Noticed the lack of price adjustment but didn't correlate that with the increase in licensing profits, my mind instantly went to the ongoing trade situation so that's a good notice as well. I'll echo that it will be interesting to see more long-term of how many folks get into the tabletop and actually stay that started with SM2. I have zero doubts they saw a bump in traffic when that game launched due to it's success, but between the myriad of GW specifc issues (not being ready for launch with something like the "as seen in SM2 tab" or Titus model, a big chunk of the catalog being out of stock for the better part of a year, rising life costs, etc) and how that game has fallen off (referencing Steamcharts in comparison to other games at that year mark like Helldivers for example) over the last 9 months, I'm curious to see how many actually remain

 

 

As always, thank you @N1SB for your efforts, I look forwards to receiving my honorary MBA

[Dark Shepherd]

I will be interested to see if their online sales continue to trend down or below general sales growth

 

Same with paints

 

W+ numbers too

[Redcomet]

They just fired the managing editor of White Dwarf in a cost cutting measure. The position will not be refilled. 
 

So apparently they are close to shutting their doors. (This is a joke btw)

[Captain Idaho]

Well makes sense GW wouldn't need a manager of editing, since proof reading is a thing lesser beings do anyway, right GW?

[Felix Antipodes]

I think there is also a reverse effect wrt SM2.  From what I’ve seen personally in my circle, the game has renewed interest in lapsed gamers (of the TT variety) rather than attracting gamers (of the screen type) to the tabletop.  Don’t know if this will escalate into a return to the fold though.  The negativity around the HHv3 rules has dampened the enthusiasm of some.

[Joe]

 

Please don't attack me like this Google.

[The Praetorian of Inwit]

Given GW would have seen an increase in labour costs I'm surprised there has been no price increase. GW is usually fanatical about preserving that 70% margin. 

Edited Friday at 05:01 PM by Firedrake Cordova
=][= Political commentary removed =][=

[Vassakov]

The report appears to be up. Unsurprisingly, they've had a very good year. 

 

https://assets.ctfassets.net/ost7hseic9hc/3kXsoA4jSOmOj6BLZ7bV7F/c34a5f56769e8be055c19b8e1ccc5526/Accounts_2024-25_FINAL.pdf

[Captain Idaho]

Lots of text and waffle, I'll save everyone the hassle:

 

Income is up, 40K is the largest contributor by quite a margine thanks to Space Marine 2 and it owning the company generally.

 

Easy 

[TheMawr]

3 minutes ago, Captain Idaho said:

Lots of text and waffle, I'll save everyone the hassle:

 

Income is up, 40K is the largest contributor by quite a margine thanks to Space Marine 2 and it owning the company generally.

 

Easy 

 

Dont forget the cute bat

[N1SB]

On 7/25/2025 at 11:33 PM, The Praetorian of Inwit said:

Given GW would have seen an increase in labour costs I'm surprised there has been no price increase. GW is usually fanatical about preserving that 70% margin. 

 

 

You are correct.  Staff costs DID increase by £5.5 million pounds, and I guess that's partly from the stores they added to North America and also new hires in their Nottingham HQ, but good news, it just so happens that accounting-wise those don't go into their gross profit margin calculation.  Operating Expenses, GW's like "that's on us, you don't pay for that, just as you don't pay extra for our Factory 4, it's just factored in different."

 

Because there's a code of Honour Among Thieves, mang.  For even La Cosa Nostra has rules it must abide.

[phandaal]

4 hours ago, Vassakov said:

The report appears to be up. Unsurprisingly, they've had a very good year. 

 

https://assets.ctfassets.net/ost7hseic9hc/3kXsoA4jSOmOj6BLZ7bV7F/c34a5f56769e8be055c19b8e1ccc5526/Accounts_2024-25_FINAL.pdf

Everything's coming up James!

[N1SB]

4 hours ago, TheMawr said:

 

Dont forget the cute bat

 

I had to google "pipistrelle" bat.  I was like "is this a new accounting term?"  I literally scratched my head like this is a new VAT or something.  No, it's an actual bat, like Batman.  I didn't see that coming.  Only in a GW annual report would a bat be mentioned.  Let's hope it gets resolved by next year, unlike GW's perpetual IT issues.

 

And let us all go to the Horus Heresy forums and discuss HH 3.0.  We're Bolter & Chainsword, discussing HH is what we DO.

[Vassakov]

2 minutes ago, N1SB said:

 

You are correct.  Staff costs DID increase by £5.5 million pounds, and I guess that's partly from the stores they added to North America and also new hires in their Nottingham HQ, but good news, it just so happens that accounting-wise those don't go into their gross profit margin calculation.  Operating Expenses, GW's like "that's on us, you don't pay for that, just as you don't pay extra for our Factory 4, it's just factored in different."

 

 

They haven't explicitly said, but I'd imagine a chunk of that comes from the rise in Employers National Insurance which kicked in in April for the UK.

 

It might have more of an impact next year as it obviously only affects April/May for this year though. 

[Vassakov]

3 minutes ago, N1SB said:

 

I had to google "pipistrelle" bat.  I was like "is this a new accounting term?"  I literally scratched my head like this is a new VAT or something.  No, it's an actual bat, like Batman.  I didn't see that coming.  Only in a GW annual report would a bat be mentioned.  Let's hope it gets resolved by next year, unlike GW's perpetual IT issues.

 

And let us all go to the Horus Heresy forums and discuss HH 3.0.  We're Bolter & Chainsword, discussing HH is what we DO.

 

If you want a tragic laugh, google "HS2 bat tunnel."

 

Seriously, the best laid plans of mice and men... can be thoroughly ruined by wing'd mammals. 

[Joe]

My family used to rent a property that had pipistrelle's nesting in an old well in the garden (we're talking eight or nine acres of garden). When we moved out we found out the landlord was planning on quietly ripping the well out and disrupting the colony - ignoring that bats are protected and that's a major no no. One call to the authorities later and the bats are still there and the landlord definitely isn't. 

 

Seriously though, that car park is very likely never happening.

[N1SB]

1 hour ago, Vassakov said:

 

They haven't explicitly said, but I'd imagine a chunk of that comes from the rise in Employers National Insurance which kicked in in April for the UK.

 

It might have more of an impact next year as it obviously only affects April/May for this year though. 

 

That sounds exactly right, is about the right sum for that.  You reminded me why companies like China.

 

An American businessman was thinking of off-shoring manufacturing to China.  He doesn't know the language, labour laws, but he gets a translator, just works at it, finds a local factory, discuss terms, etc.  Talks to some local government officials at the end of the process, gets wined & dined.

 

The American businessman remembers about worker insurance, "What if a Chinese worker gets hurt?  Any insurance?"

 

The translator translates, the official very excitedly replies, the American businessman asks, "So what did he say?"

 

She replies, "If any Chinese worker gets hurt, the official will insure you will get a replacement worker IMMEDIATELY."

 

And if the problem is bats, you don't have to worry about killing the bats or not.  Those bats will magically disappear IMMEDIATELY.

[Captain Idaho]

Hate to put pressure on you, @N1SB, but we're all waiting on your full review.

 

Homework for you lol.

[darkhorse0607]

"Excluding digital sales, Online sales decreased by 5.2% or £3.6 million. The very strong prior year performance in June 2023 was not matched in June 2024 and proved too difficult to claw back during the rest of the period reported. This was due to
fewer customers ordering directly to and from home with us. "

 

Gee I wonder why given that everything is out of stock on the website and it's a pain to use. Really getting their millions worth on that one

[Doghouse]

1 hour ago, Captain Idaho said:

Hate to put pressure on you, @N1SB, but we're all waiting on your full review.

 

Homework for you lol.

 

I may have just the thing.

 

[Dark Shepherd]

2 interesting snippets for me

 

They changed which director oversees IT

4.5 million novels sold in a year

 

Did anyone see any mention of paint sales going up or down?

[skylerboodie]