(Pending) GW Annual Financial Report 2025 (Space Marine II bump, Factory 4, etc.)

[N1SB]

As per our B&C bi-annual tradition, we're preparing to talk about Games Workshop's financial report when it lands this week.

 

Why?  Because as a U.S. Midwestern farmer, who are all financial experts, said to me, "Know where your food comes from."

 

Prediction: GW will report ABOUT £610 million Revenue and just under £240 million Profit.  Growth is on par with a 40k year.

 

 

+++ How were last year's predictions? +++

 

Where we were right: we were 100% right GW would enter the FTSE 100, and that tariff's slated to stay at 10%.

 

Where I was wrong: though expected, I was 100% wrong about GW price increases updates.  I'm glad to be wrong.

 

What I completely missed: Necron Wraiths and Crypteks went DOWN in points cost.  Did not see that coming.

 

 

+++ This year's story to "business news media" +++

 

So you know GW does 3-year product cycles.  40k, then Age of Sigmar, then Horus Heresy.  This report is about an AoS year.

(For reference, 40k is a HUGE growth year, then it levels off for AoS, then it's kinda janky with HH.  40k is the high watermark.)

 

But actually AoS is not the real story.  The video game Space Marine II is the breakout star.  Its licensing revenue is pure profit.

 

That's what every business news article will be reporting on, then maybe link it to the Amazon streaming series negotiations.

 

Prediction: The CEO will declare, "Record licensing Revenue!  But don't expect a repeat until Space Marine III comes out."  Actual, I'm going to make a personal note here; I'm looking at my projections and, the CEO will never, ever confess this, but I think he held off price increases during a year of record energy costs...huge to GW as it needs to melt plastic into miniatures...because he knew there would be this massive Profit bump from a video game to offset it, hoping no one would notice.  Remember, even he only holds his job at the pleasure of shareholders.

 

Actual: Pending.

 

 

+++ This year's story to us, actual Hobbyists +++

 

I don't speak for us all, but I'm thinking, did the video Space Marine II bring players from screens to the tabletop?

 

GW has NOT categorised Revenue by 40k/AoS/HH/etc.  It DOES separate Core (i.e. its stuff) vs. Licensing (i.e. royalties).

 

So we MAY see a bump from Space Marine II conversion to the Hobby separated from the royalties GW gets.

 

To keep myself honest, I can think of at least 2 ways where there may be indicators of this, maybe more:

 

1. Is this year's Core Revenue growth way higher than other AoS launch years?  That'd be a bump
2. AoS 4th came in July, Space Marine II and Titus mini in Sept.  Were sales more back-loaded?

 

There may be other signs, like little glitches in the Matrix, that we'll know when we see them.

 

Prediction: It's hard.  It assumes AoS is growing like previously, and a huge, observable bump from Space Marine II.

 

Actual: Pending.

 

Question to you guys who play AoS: How did last year's AoS 4th ed launch compare to previous ones please?

 

 

+++ Other forever stories +++

 

There have been ongoing stories with GW that never seem to end: Amazon deal, Factory 4, IT, tariffs.

 

Amazon Prediction: GW will continue to have meetings for negotiations for more meetings to negotiate.

 

Factory 4 Prediction: GW cleared some hurdle to build Factory 4 until they clear the next hurdle.

 

IT Prediction: GW will continue to upgrade its IT infrastructure until they need to upgrade again.

 

Tariff Prediction: Report will use some jargon "we will continue monitoring the situation," etc.

 

Actual: Pending.

 

 

+++ Personal note this year +++

 

I'm being brief, only because I'm reading up on all the Horus Heresy rules.  I'm bringing back the Shattered Xth, baby!

Edited 14 hours ago by N1SB

[Captain Idaho]

Yeah I'm looking forward to it.

 

And you raise a great point that none of us seemed to predict or anticipate last time around... the price increases were held off because of record profits in licensing, likely to be implemented next year.

 

Partly this is also because price rises still occur even in years without declared price increases with how they seem to do conversion work (sorry Oz friends) but also new releases coming in at s higher level, boxed sets being adjacent to standard pricing and crucially stealth increases...

 

Anyway, my prediction is next year we'll see a price increase that encompasses the price increases opportunity missed this year. Actually a bonus prediction - fall/winter price increases will occur to compensate for energy costs etc soaring.

 

Question - do we think HH will see a bumper increase in sales this year? I feel like it should, but I suspect longevity we won't.

[apologist]

As always, thank-you for your commentary and insights. I know very little about the technowizardry of financials, so appreciate being led through.

[darkhorse0607]

I've heard that reading these counts as credit hours towards an MBA so I'm here for another one

 

Noticed the lack of price adjustment but didn't correlate that with the increase in licensing profits, my mind instantly went to the ongoing trade situation so that's a good notice as well. I'll echo that it will be interesting to see more long-term of how many folks get into the tabletop and actually stay that started with SM2. I have zero doubts they saw a bump in traffic when that game launched due to it's success, but between the myriad of GW specifc issues (not being ready for launch with something like the "as seen in SM2 tab" or Titus model, a big chunk of the catalog being out of stock for the better part of a year, rising life costs, etc) and how that game has fallen off (referencing Steamcharts in comparison to other games at that year mark like Helldivers for example) over the last 9 months, I'm curious to see how many actually remain

 

 

As always, thank you @N1SB for your efforts, I look forwards to receiving my honorary MBA

[Dark Shepherd]

I will be interested to see if their online sales continue to trend down or below general sales growth

 

Same with paints

 

W+ numbers too

[Redcomet]

They just fired the managing editor of White Dwarf in a cost cutting measure. The position will not be refilled. 
 

So apparently they are close to shutting their doors. (This is a joke btw)

[Captain Idaho]

Well makes sense GW wouldn't need a manager of editing, since proof reading is a thing lesser beings do anyway, right GW?

[Felix Antipodes]

I think there is also a reverse effect wrt SM2.  From what I’ve seen personally in my circle, the game has renewed interest in lapsed gamers (of the TT variety) rather than attracting gamers (of the screen type) to the tabletop.  Don’t know if this will escalate into a return to the fold though.  The negativity around the HHv3 rules has dampened the enthusiasm of some.

[Joe]

 

Please don't attack me like this Google.