N1SB Posted Tuesday at 12:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:07 PM (edited) As per our B&C bi-annual tradition, we're preparing to talk about Games Workshop's financial report when it lands this week. Why? Because as a U.S. Midwestern farmer, who are all financial experts, said to me, "Know where your food comes from." Prediction: GW will report ABOUT £610 million Revenue and just under £240 million Profit. Growth is on par with a 40k year. +++ How were last year's predictions? +++ Where we were right: we were 100% right GW would enter the FTSE 100, and that tariff's slated to stay at 10%. Where I was wrong: though expected, I was 100% wrong about GW price increases updates. I'm glad to be wrong. What I completely missed: Necron Wraiths and Crypteks went DOWN in points cost. Did not see that coming. +++ This year's story to "business news media" +++ So you know GW does 3-year product cycles. 40k, then Age of Sigmar, then Horus Heresy. This report is about an AoS year. (For reference, 40k is a HUGE growth year, then it levels off for AoS, then it's kinda janky with HH. 40k is the high watermark.) But actually AoS is not the real story. The video game Space Marine II is the breakout star. Its licensing revenue is pure profit. That's what every business news article will be reporting on, then maybe link it to the Amazon streaming series negotiations. Prediction: The CEO will declare, "Record licensing Revenue! But don't expect a repeat until Space Marine III comes out." Actual, I'm going to make a personal note here; I'm looking at my projections and, the CEO will never, ever confess this, but I think he held off price increases during a year of record energy costs...huge to GW as it needs to melt plastic into miniatures...because he knew there would be this massive Profit bump from a video game to offset it, hoping no one would notice. Remember, even he only holds his job at the pleasure of shareholders. Actual: Pending. +++ This year's story to us, actual Hobbyists +++ I don't speak for us all, but I'm thinking, did the video Space Marine II bring players from screens to the tabletop? GW has NOT categorised Revenue by 40k/AoS/HH/etc. It DOES separate Core (i.e. its stuff) vs. Licensing (i.e. royalties). So we MAY see a bump from Space Marine II conversion to the Hobby separated from the royalties GW gets. To keep myself honest, I can think of at least 2 ways where there may be indicators of this, maybe more: Is this year's Core Revenue growth way higher than other AoS launch years? That'd be a bump AoS 4th came in July, Space Marine II and Titus mini in Sept. Were sales more back-loaded? There may be other signs, like little glitches in the Matrix, that we'll know when we see them. Prediction: It's hard. It assumes AoS is growing like previously, and a huge, observable bump from Space Marine II. Actual: Pending. Question to you guys who play AoS: How did last year's AoS 4th ed launch compare to previous ones please? +++ Other forever stories +++ There have been ongoing stories with GW that never seem to end: Amazon deal, Factory 4, IT, tariffs. Amazon Prediction: GW will continue to have meetings for negotiations for more meetings to negotiate. Factory 4 Prediction: GW cleared some hurdle to build Factory 4 until they clear the next hurdle. IT Prediction: GW will continue to upgrade its IT infrastructure until they need to upgrade again. Tariff Prediction: Report will use some jargon "we will continue monitoring the situation," etc. Actual: Pending. +++ Personal note this year +++ I'm being brief, only because I'm reading up on all the Horus Heresy rules. I'm bringing back the Shattered Xth, baby! Edited Wednesday at 09:17 AM by N1SB RolandTHTG, darkhorse0607, Mechanicus Tech-Support and 13 others 6 2 6 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/ Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Idaho Posted Tuesday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:45 PM Yeah I'm looking forward to it. And you raise a great point that none of us seemed to predict or anticipate last time around... the price increases were held off because of record profits in licensing, likely to be implemented next year. Partly this is also because price rises still occur even in years without declared price increases with how they seem to do conversion work (sorry Oz friends) but also new releases coming in at s higher level, boxed sets being adjacent to standard pricing and crucially stealth increases... Anyway, my prediction is next year we'll see a price increase that encompasses the price increases opportunity missed this year. Actually a bonus prediction - fall/winter price increases will occur to compensate for energy costs etc soaring. Question - do we think HH will see a bumper increase in sales this year? I feel like it should, but I suspect longevity we won't. N1SB 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/#findComment-6123634 Share on other sites More sharing options...
apologist Posted Tuesday at 12:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:57 PM As always, thank-you for your commentary and insights. I know very little about the technowizardry of financials, so appreciate being led through. N1SB 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/#findComment-6123636 Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkhorse0607 Posted Tuesday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:19 PM I've heard that reading these counts as credit hours towards an MBA so I'm here for another one Noticed the lack of price adjustment but didn't correlate that with the increase in licensing profits, my mind instantly went to the ongoing trade situation so that's a good notice as well. I'll echo that it will be interesting to see more long-term of how many folks get into the tabletop and actually stay that started with SM2. I have zero doubts they saw a bump in traffic when that game launched due to it's success, but between the myriad of GW specifc issues (not being ready for launch with something like the "as seen in SM2 tab" or Titus model, a big chunk of the catalog being out of stock for the better part of a year, rising life costs, etc) and how that game has fallen off (referencing Steamcharts in comparison to other games at that year mark like Helldivers for example) over the last 9 months, I'm curious to see how many actually remain As always, thank you @N1SB for your efforts, I look forwards to receiving my honorary MBA LameBeard and N1SB 1 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/#findComment-6123660 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Shepherd Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM I will be interested to see if their online sales continue to trend down or below general sales growth Same with paints W+ numbers too N1SB 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/#findComment-6123684 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redcomet Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM They just fired the managing editor of White Dwarf in a cost cutting measure. The position will not be refilled. So apparently they are close to shutting their doors. (This is a joke btw) N1SB 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/#findComment-6123694 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Idaho Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM Well makes sense GW wouldn't need a manager of editing, since proof reading is a thing lesser beings do anyway, right GW? Agramar_The_Luna_Wolf, skylerboodie, N1SB and 2 others 1 3 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/#findComment-6123743 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felix Antipodes Posted Wednesday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:56 AM I think there is also a reverse effect wrt SM2. From what I’ve seen personally in my circle, the game has renewed interest in lapsed gamers (of the TT variety) rather than attracting gamers (of the screen type) to the tabletop. Don’t know if this will escalate into a return to the fold though. The negativity around the HHv3 rules has dampened the enthusiasm of some. N1SB 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/#findComment-6123779 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted Wednesday at 09:21 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:21 AM Please don't attack me like this Google. RolandTHTG, Brother Casman, firestorm40k and 11 others 13 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/#findComment-6123800 Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Praetorian of Inwit Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago (edited) Given GW would have seen an increase in labour costs I'm surprised there has been no price increase. GW is usually fanatical about preserving that 70% margin. Edited 13 hours ago by Firedrake Cordova =][= Political commentary removed =][= skylerboodie 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/386322-pending-gw-annual-financial-report-2025-space-marine-ii-bump-factory-4-etc/#findComment-6124238 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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