As you can see this place is falling apart

[Dark Shepherd]

Games Workshop announces a trading update for the six months ended 30th November 2025. The Board’s estimate of the results for the six months to 30 November 2025, at actual rates, is core revenue of not less than £310 million (2024/25: £269.4 million) and licensing revenue of not less than £16 million (2024/25: £30.1 million). The Group’s profit before tax (“PBT”) is estimated to be not less than £135 million (2024/25: £126.8 million).

Further details will be announced in the half yearly report which will be released on 13 January 2026.

 

So profits are up over 6% despite licencing almost halving. My bad maths makes it about a £24m increase in non licencing profits, so £121m up from £97m which is a Carnifex sized jump

 

Market is happy

[N1SB]

Thanks for the heads up, Brother Shepherd, because this is both a significant AND surprising reflection of the 30k range*.

 

* HUGE asterisk here: my local meta loves 30k with the current rules, but ppl CAN buy the plastics for use with 2nd ed rules.

 

Why is this half-year core revenue number significant?  Because it measures GW's own sales from June 1st until the end of this month, that's how the GW's calendar works, and follows how they launch new flagship products in the summer like new editions of 40k, AoS and, this year, 30k...which did better than I expected.

 

GW rightly and responsibly separates core revenue from licensing revenue (from video games, etc.), so no cover up here.

 

PREVIOUSLY, 40k has the obviously biggest jump, starts leveling off with AoS, then (weird currency fluctuations notwithstanding), just plateaus with 30k.  There's a rhythm to it, like BANG, Bang...boop.  Because of the negativity surrounding HH 3.0 (not saying right or wong, but that negativity exists), I'd have been glad if it held steady...boop.

 

But what this core revenue number suggests is this HH launch performed better than the AoS one last half-year:

 

 

So last half-year's AoS launch period AND Space Marine 2's release, £235.6m to £263m was an increase of ~10%.

(Yes, Space Marine 2's licensing revenue i.e. royalties is separate, but those players then go buy their 1st minis, k?)

 

 

This half-year's 30k launch period, and fans of Space Marine 2 might still be here, £269.4m to £310m is an increase of around ~15%.

 

Anticipating your question, what was 30k 2nd ed's launch period like?  Taking out the weird currency fluctuations, around 0%.  That doesn't mean 30k 2nd ed didn't sell, it just meant it sold at almost exactly the same rate as AoS...boop.  Because of the negativity around 30k 3rd ed, I thought it'd be around ~0% again.

 

(I remember AoS's launch last year, everyone was playing that Spearhead game here, it was cool and fast and popular!  So no disrespect!)

 

Other factors I'm keeping in mind:

 

- Space Marine II released in Sept 2024, lingering effect

- Pricing Update around Oct 2025, yes, that would bump up revenue, but it's quite late, like period ends in November

- But Brothers et Sororitas, help me out, what other significant releases since this June?  I saw some SM characters

 

To have this half-year outperform AoS AND the initial rush of new Hobbyists from Space Marine 2, this is a significant and surprising twist.

 

I'll leave it here because if anything, I have Contemptor Dreadnoughts to build, but I was expecting bad news, and this is way good news imho.

Edited 5 hours ago by N1SB

[TheMawr]

37 minutes ago, N1SB said:

 

Other factors I'm keeping in mind:

 

- Space Marine II released in Sept 2024, lingering effect

- Pricing Update around Oct 2025, yes, that would bump up revenue, but it's quite late, like period ends in November

- But Brothers et Sororitas, help me out, what other significant releases since this June?  I saw some SM characters

 

To have this half-year outperform AoS AND the initial rush of new Hobbyists from Space Marine 2, this is a significant and surprising twist.

 

I'll leave it here because if anything, I have Contemptor Dreadnoughts to build, but I was expecting bad news, and this is way good news imho.

 

Dark eldar getting their first new thing in ages, thats obviously that 6% bump!

 

But seriously, its not just *some spacemarine characters*.. there was quite a bit of spacemarine stuff altogether, Assault terminators box probably was no low seller, there is space wolves too, as well as cathay in TOW and chaos dwarves in AoS. Bloodbowl's new edition as well ( although I think the preorder was in november, so maybe not in there, but I do think they include pre-orders for this estimate, so the terminators are probably in there. )

[Wispy]

the data is clear. More Space Wolves.

[Craig]

The 3rd party retailers were the ones that took the hit on Saturnine. They bought all the stock from GW but couldn't sell it after. Maybe this will lead to them being more reserved in future and not stocking more than they are likely to sell on release day?

[Matcap86]

The data is clear, my beloved legions imperialis is saving the company.

[Matcap86]

Also I think 'the internet' falls into the trap of "I don't like it e.g. it won't sell well." Anecdotal, but I have 7 flgs in my area and they all sold out of 3rd edition HH stuff at launch and are usually having trouble keeping new releases in stock.

[Dark Shepherd]

29 minutes ago, Craig said:

The 3rd party retailers were the ones that took the hit on Saturnine. They bought all the stock from GW but couldn't sell it after. Maybe this will lead to them being more reserved in future and not stocking more than they are likely to sell on release day?

I was in Meeplemart in Toronto last week, supposedly biggest trade buyer of GW in Canada. They said they cant get anywhere remotely near the level of stock they want for popular new releases

 

GW pushing customers to their own webstore is working and/or when they increase production capacity then sales could soar even more

[Craig]

14 minutes ago, Matcap86 said:

Also I think 'the internet' falls into the trap of "I don't like it e.g. it won't sell well." Anecdotal, but I have 7 flgs in my area and they all sold out of 3rd edition HH stuff at launch and are usually having trouble keeping new releases in stock.

They likely ordered the right amount of stock for their customer base. If they have 4 people that regularly buy HH products from them then they probably bought no more than 4 or 5 copies of Saturnine. Where the disconnect happened was GW hyping up Saturnine to the same level as Leviathan or Indomitus and retailers expecting the same demand from customers. This didn't happen for several reasons (lower HH player base, high level of duplicate models in the box, £200 price point etc.) and retailers were left holding a massive amount of stock which wasn't selling. GW still emptied their warehouse of stock which is why the HH release looks good on paper but we all know the situation is more complicated than that.

[Matcap86]

4 minutes ago, Craig said:

This didn't happen for several reasons (lower HH player base, high level of duplicate models in the box, £200 price point etc.) and retailers were left holding a massive amount of stock which wasn't selling. 

 

I mean, with all due respect, this is just full on speculation and sweeping statements without actual data to back it up.

[Craig]

2 minutes ago, Matcap86 said:

 

I mean, with all due respect, this is just full on speculation and sweeping statements without actual data to back it up.

That's correct. And I'm pointing out the data that is reported here just says that GW sold their product. But you and I know that the launch of that product was more problematic for GWs customers (for whatever reason) than a number on a spreadsheet would suggest. This may or may not affect the release of future products and probably shouldn't be taken as the sole indicator of a trend.

[Matcap86]

6 minutes ago, Craig said:

That's correct. And I'm pointing out the data that is reported here just says that GW sold their product. But you and I know that the launch of that product was more problematic for GWs customers (for whatever reason) than a number on a spreadsheet would suggest. This may or may not affect the release of future products and probably shouldn't be taken as the sole indicator of a trend.

 

Absolutely, there was a vocal component online at launch which had issues with HH3.0 but that doesn't mean retailers were left holding the bag. (Not to say Saturnine is a continuous starter set, so any excess stock would still be able to sell throughout this editions cycle.)

 

The AOS Dominion box for example felt to me like a far more egregious example with even GW themselves putting it on extra discount during Black Friday, a thing not seen for a decade, or since. At some point I saw that box discounted to 50% off at places. If we see Saturnine dive that low during the coming holiday season we'll have actual indicators stores are unable to shift their stock. 

[Craig]

Retailers did discount Saturnine beyond their usual. This is a clear indicator that they bought too much stock. You have to keep in mind retailers don't have an infinite amount of storage for stock and hundreds of Saturnine boxes in your store room don't leave a lot of room for other products. Do you want your storage capacity reduced by 50% for a year or more while you wait for demand to gradually meet supply? Probably not. The money you used to purchase that stock that isn't selling is also money that can't be used to purchase stock that will sell.  Not good for your business.

Edited 2 hours ago by Craig

[Matcap86]

12 minutes ago, Craig said:

Retailers did discount Saturnine beyond their usual. This is a clear indicator that they bought too much stock. You have to keep in mind retailers don't have an infinite amount of storage for stock and hundreds of Saturnine boxes in your store room don't leave a lot of room for other products. Do you want your storage capacity reduced by 50% for a year or more while you wait for demand to gradually meet supply? Probably not. The money you used to purchase that stock that isn't selling is also money that can't be used to purchase stock that will sell.  Not good for your business.

 

True now that you mention it, Though that was just Wayland and Dark Sphere following them right?

 

If some hypothetical retailers bought 100s of boxes without actual customers to sell them to, that's hardly the product's fault. But we're getting into the weeds now.

 

Was Saturnine a smash hit for GW? Probably not. Was it a complete failure? Also probably not. I'd expect it to sit around an okay AOS launch, not as good as the Age of Darkness box, but not as bad as Dominon. Though that's just gut feelings. 

[Mogger351]

2 minutes ago, Matcap86 said:

 

True now that you mention it, Though that was just Wayland and Dark Sphere following them right?

 

If some hypothetical retailers bought 100s of boxes without actual customers to sell them to, that's hardly the product's fault. But we're getting into the weeds now.

 

Was Saturnine a smash hit for GW? Probably not. Was it a complete failure? Also probably not. I'd expect it to sit around an okay AOS launch, not as good as the Age of Darkness box, but not as bad as Dominon. Though that's just gut feelings. 

The owner of Wayland did message on Dakka about it, they basically overbought and it damaged their liquidity and literal stock space iirc, they needed to lower the price to get it to shift so they weren't stuck with an overly large volume of boxes eating up their space and cash. I think they were confident they'd sell over time, but they definitely over egged it for the launch.

 

Even if others followed, they obviously had enough to meet demand and then some even at reduced prices. In the case of Hobby Workshop who are currently selling it at ~£90 off in black Friday, I assume they're *still* sat on excess launch stock.

[Matcap86]

4 minutes ago, Mogger351 said:

The owner of Wayland did message on Dakka about it, they basically overbought and it damaged their liquidity and literal stock space iirc, they needed to lower the price to get it to shift so they weren't stuck with an overly large volume of boxes eating up their space and cash. I think they were confident they'd sell over time, but they definitely over egged it for the launch.

 

Even if others followed, they obviously had enough to meet demand and then some even at reduced prices. In the case of Hobby Workshop who are currently selling it at ~£90 off in black Friday, I assume they're *still* sat on excess launch stock.

 

Went to check Hobby Workshop cause 90 pound off is a real steal. But they're out of stock atm 

[Craig]

Most online retailers discounted their boxes after the first did. If your stock is priced at £150 and the exact same thing is priced at £120 by your competitors you're really forced to adjust your prices too. I recall when I bought one after they were discounted the stock count on the website said there were 300+ in stock. Taking £30 profit off of 300+ items is a £9000+ hit to your profit margin.

I'm not arguing success or failure, just pointing out that things are a lot more complex than select data indicates sometimes.

[Captain Idaho]

The launches skew the health of the game, which is why we see a sales model from GW that includes a major launch every year.

 

GW will continue to make record profits until the bubble bursts. At the moment, they're getting decent exposure from video games and Amazon, plus the biggest revenue stream are still in the market - people like us in their 20s to 40s.

 

The real question is - when exposure drops and people are tired of Space Marine 5, when my age demographic is buying less (which my anecdotal evidence can support is happening at 40s)... does GW have replacement customers to pick up the torch or will it act like a sudden crash?

[Matcap86]

2 minutes ago, Captain Idaho said:

The launches skew the health of the game, which is why we see a sales model from GW that includes a major launch every year.

 

GW will continue to make record profits until the bubble bursts. At the moment, they're getting decent exposure from video games and Amazon, plus the biggest revenue stream are still in the market - people like us in their 20s to 40s.

 

The real question is - when exposure drops and people are tired of Space Marine 5, when my age demographic is buying less (which my anecdotal evidence can support is happening at 40s)... does GW have replacement customers to pick up the torch or will it act like a sudden crash?

 

This is a big one I think. I feel a lot of GW current bumper growth is due to the kids who couldn't afford everything they wanted from GW 20-30 years ago now being adults with spending money. Hence all the nostalgia callback in products the past few years. But I do worry how much new future nostalgia is being created for kids these days. 

[Captain Idaho]

Yeah my kids and the kids of my fellow gaming group attendees just aren't into GW products. And let's be honest, we push!

 

Got Jamie into Predator, Terminator, Aliens, even things like Robocop and Attack on Titan. Can I touch 40K or other games with him? Not a chance.

[Blindhamster]

Not to sound like an old person (I'm 37...) but its because of video games, mobiles etc

 

Now don't get me wrong, obviously they were a thing when I was younger, but the proliferation of them has increased significantly. As has the variety, ease and quality. 

When I was 11 I painted miniatures, I did play some games on an old PC in my parents "study", but had no access to consoles at home, nor did I get a mobile till I was 15. So by the time I had a mobile and was allowed to game in my own room, I'd already been doing warhammer to some level for 7 or so years (started when I was 8), in that time I'd developed the addiciton already so was hooked enough that those other things never quite pushed me away from it. 

 

That said, even now as a much older man (lol), i go through phases of computer gaming or hobbying, rarely doing both at the same time, because my preferred game types (RPGs) are long time dedication things... i have a busy job and three kids. 

 

My eldest has an army and does occasionally build and paint, hes played some games. So I see that as an absolute win... that said, he wont choose hobby time over his other interests (minecraft, roblox, switch gaming, lego, youtube) typically. My middle child is completely uninterested outside of a mild liking for some of the paint colours. And my youngest is only 2 months old... so time will tell. 

It's a crying shame when they're all named after warhammer characters! 

[Magos Takatus]

47 minutes ago, Blindhamster said:

My eldest has an army and does occasionally build and paint, hes played some games. So I see that as an absolute win... that said, he wont choose hobby time over his other interests (minecraft, roblox, switch gaming, lego, youtube) typically. My middle child is completely uninterested outside of a mild liking for some of the paint colours. And my youngest is only 2 months old... so time will tell. 

It's a crying shame when they're all named after warhammer characters! 

Don't worry, brother, I'm sure Mephiston, Khârn and Ghazghkull Mag Uruk Thraka and  will come around eventually... 

[Halandaar]

11 minutes ago, Blindhamster said:

Not to sound like an old person (I'm 37...) but its because of video games, mobiles etc

 

IMO the phones are a bigger part of it - the video games were around when we were kids too (the first Playstation, N64 and Saturn were contemporaneous with 40K 2nd Edition, as were a lot of classic PC games like Command & Conquer, Doom, Warcraft etc), the difference now is the engagement machinery around video games. It's not just that they're increasingly designed to keep you playing (and spending) as long as possible with battle passes and stuff like that, there's also an entire media ecosystem around them with stuff like Twitch and that content being served up in bitesize chunks via TikTok and so on.

 

It feels like in our day video games and physical games were on a more even footing, in that they were both a bit niche and you needed to go a bit out of your way to participate in them. Nowadays it must be so difficult for something like Warhammer to cut through when kids' attention is just saturated by video games and game-adjacent social media. Space Marine 2 obviously did a good job of  bringing the world of the hobby into the videogame mainstream, but it still feels like for recruiting younger players, getting a Space Marine skin into Fortnite would be the best marketing move GW could make by a wide margin.