As you can see this place is falling apart

[Blindhamster]

1 hour ago, Magos Takatus said:

Don't worry, brother, I'm sure Mephiston, Khârn and Ghazghkull Mag Uruk Thraka and  will come around eventually... 

I'll keep those in mind for another time! If you're interested, One is a certain Knight Errant, One is a Flesh Tearer Chapter master and one is a Blood Angel Chapter master :P

[Robbienw]

Ok, £120 seems more reasonable, surely £90 would have made it a loss 

[darkhorse0607]

Not trying to talk down on AoS but I dont think its really surprising that Space Marines outsold an AoS launch box, or at least performed better than last year's launch box. Granted it had Skaven but isn't this the second AoS launch box that didn't sell all that massively? Anecdotal of course, but my FLGS still has copies of it. Its also not competing with Old World being more established now. Additionally, they did something differently than they typically do with those large boxes and sold some of the individual items separately at launch (MK2 squads), which opened the gate more for folks to buy something that couldn't afford the $300 box, didn't care for the Saturnine terminators, or whatever 

 

Someone can correct me if I am wrong of course, but I also feel like they put more releases, or at least more popular releases, in the last quarter of 2025 than 2024. The Space Marine characters, Ultramarines (your welcome GW for the profit bump), Dark Eldar, etc, many of which sold out in combination with the price rise.

 

I would be really interested to see the numbers on loyalties though. I'm not saying the game is dead or anything, and while they did sell things like the season 2 pass during this time, with the player numbers being around 10,000 or below almost this entire half year, I cant imagine its anywhere close to what it would have been last year or in the spring in terms of revenue. 

 

Also I really am curious as to the numbers for Black Library. 

[Spazmolytic]

6 hours ago, Dark Shepherd said:

I was in Meeplemart in Toronto last week, supposedly biggest trade buyer of GW in Canada. They said they cant get anywhere remotely near the level of stock they want for popular new releases

 

GW pushing customers to their own webstore is working and/or when they increase production capacity then sales could soar even more

 

Seems like everything in that store has taken a hit, stocking wise, but GW is really obvious.  

[Jolemai]

5 hours ago, Captain Idaho said:

 

The real question is - when exposure drops and people are tired of Space Marine 5, when my age demographic is buying less (which my anecdotal evidence can support is happening at 40s)... does GW have replacement customers to pick up the torch or will it act like a sudden crash?

 

This is when Fire Warrior 2 is announced, alongside the plastic Orca release.

[darkhorse0607]

15 minutes ago, Jolemai said:

 

This is when Fire Warrior 2 is announced, alongside the plastic Orca release.

 

You don't have to keep trying to sell me, I'll go bump up the Tau profits

[nodnol88]

SM2 success shouldn’t just be measured in sales, because it’s real impact was watching non-40K YouTubers and Streamers engage with it and the snowball effect that caused. All of a sudden there’s non-40K content creators reacting and watching Bricky’s Intro videos, and then the algorithm gods loop it round and pump the OG content back out. I bet Bricky, Leutin, Arbitor Ian etc all saw a big spike in their old videos engagements after SM2, and that just creates this ball of momentum that is hard to quantify. When IGN are getting Arbitor Ian on to talk 40K Lore for the odd video, you know the IP is reaching beyond the normal sphere of influence (not that IGN is itself, but rather having multiple YouTube videos featuring niche content creator).

 

It seemed at the time that GW were caught out by its success; they weren’t ready with minis or marketing to the degree in which they should have. The internet did it for them. 
 

Secret Level would have maintained some engagement and if they can time the Amazon show right, they’ll continue to ride that wave. I fear that might take so long to actually hit the screen, the hype will have passed.

[Wibbling]

5 hours ago, Captain Idaho said:

Yeah my kids and the kids of my fellow gaming group attendees just aren't into GW products. And let's be honest, we push!

 

Got Jamie into Predator, Terminator, Aliens, even things like Robocop and Attack on Titan. Can I touch 40K or other games with him? Not a chance.

 

Just to mention, you've Necrons and Tyranids right there. Giants - Age of Sigmar faction, ignoring the biblical references to Nephilim and what not. 

[Deus_Ex_Machina]

6 hours ago, Craig said:

Retailers did discount Saturnine beyond their usual. This is a clear indicator that they bought too much stock. You have to keep in mind retailers don't have an infinite amount of storage for stock and hundreds of Saturnine boxes in your store room don't leave a lot of room for other products. Do you want your storage capacity reduced by 50% for a year or more while you wait for demand to gradually meet supply? Probably not. The money you used to purchase that stock that isn't selling is also money that can't be used to purchase stock that will sell.  Not good for your business.

Retailers used Saturnine boxes to wallpaper their store walls.

[Mogger351]

In hindsight I get why they had faith in saturnine. Marines sell. It's a big box of marines. There's a very loud vocal goruo in online spaces that constantly want crunch/depth/customisation that HH offers.

 

You would assume it should sell as well as the ultramarines etc do, if not moreso.

 

Apparently not.

[Captain Idaho]

49 minutes ago, Wibbling said:

 

Just to mention, you've Necrons and Tyranids right there. Giants - Age of Sigmar faction, ignoring the biblical references to Nephilim and what not. 

 

Oh I tried, but the effort of wargaming just doesn't appeal to them with video games,

 

[firestorm40k]

26 minutes ago, Captain Idaho said:

 

Oh I tried, but the effort of wargaming just doesn't appeal to them with video games,

 

Speaking of Simpsons references, it's only taken me 10 hours to get the reference in the thread title 

 

 

Clearly, my Simpsons* knowledge is rusty of late 

 

*classic 1990's episodes, when it was good 

 

On topic, despite the complaints and the 'HH3 has failed!!!1one' commentary on YouTube and the like, it does seem it has been a success for GW. Almost every one of the Heresy players in my local scene bought a box, and I know at least a couple of people that started Heresy armies just because of it. (I did the slightly scummy thing of sourcing my Mk2 Marines from resellers ) 

Edited 10 hours ago by firestorm40k

[Lord Marshal]

5 hours ago, Mogger351 said:

This was the price on Wednesday:
 

 

Edit I misremembered it was £80 off

 

To be fair I'm fairly certain that's because it's a Black Friday offer. Prior to that it was at £150.

 

Even Age of Darkness was slashed to around that from various places during the Black Friday sales of 2022.

 

Going back to Wayland Games for a minute, they've had the Marine Libers and standalone MkII boxes at 35% off permanently since launch, long after basically everywhere else on the internet went back to their normal 5-20% discounts, which probably says more about how much they overordered by than anything else (particularly when the non-Marine Libers went back to Wayland's normal 20% very quickly). I mean the owner straight up admitted on DakkaDakka that they overordered on stock, and the other stores cutting prices temporarily to compete was the inevitable result.

 

I think it's fair to say that ten years of consistently netting record profits, nothing short of a sink hole/warp rift consuming Nottingham is going to cause GW to catch an L in the money pit.

 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Lord Marshal

[LSM]

9 hours ago, Craig said:

That's correct. And I'm pointing out the data that is reported here just says that GW sold their product. But you and I know that the launch of that product was more problematic for GWs customers (for whatever reason) than a number on a spreadsheet would suggest. This may or may not affect the release of future products and probably shouldn't be taken as the sole indicator of a trend.

 

Anecdote and all, but: my local has a bunch of "used" sprues (MkII Tactical Squad, MkII Veterans with Disintegrators, Araknae, etc, etc) in their Horus Heresy section, where it's obvious that they've opened up unsold copies of Saturnine and bagged up the sprues with a photocopy of the build instructions.

 

I have never seen them sell "used" anything before. (Unlike the one other place I used to go to, which had a whole section for people selling/trading in stuff, in the fashion of Magic cards, etc).

[Deus_Ex_Machina]

1 hour ago, firestorm40k said:

Speaking of Simpsons references, it's only taken me 10 hours to get the reference in the thread title 

 

 

Clearly, my Simpsons* knowledge is rusty of late 

 

*classic 1990's episodes, when it was good 

 

On topic, despite the complaints and the 'HH3 has failed!!!1one' commentary on YouTube and the like, it does seem it has been a success for GW. Almost every one of the Heresy players in my local scene bought a box, and I know at least a couple of people that started Heresy armies just because of it. (I did the slightly scummy thing of sourcing my Mk2 Marines from resellers ) 

Retailers countrywide can judge the success of a product better than a single gaming group.

[firestorm40k]

21 minutes ago, Deus_Ex_Machina said:

Retailers countrywide can judge the success of a product better than a single gaming group.

Thanks, that's true, but provided as an anecdote that's an example supporting N1SB's analysis on the first page  Local experience of HH3 uptake will inevitably vary  But GW's increased financials are clear to see!

[Jukkiz]

To be honest. 

Games workshops idea of FOMO boxes, rapid releases and extra pricey books has driven spending into corner. There just isn´t as much money to throw around as one had before. 

The "currently out of stock" Situation and overall product unavailability has hurt purchases greatly. 

[Mogger351]

1 hour ago, Lord Marshal said:

 

To be fair I'm fairly certain that's because it's a Black Friday offer. Prior to that it was at £150.

 

Even Age of Darkness was slashed to around that from various places during the Black Friday sales of 2022.

 

Going back to Wayland Games for a minute, they've had the Marine Libers and standalone MkII boxes at 35% off permanently since launch, long after basically everywhere else on the internet went back to their normal 5-20% discounts, which probably says more about how much they overordered by than anything else (particularly when the non-Marine Libers went back to Wayland's normal 20% very quickly). I mean the owner straight up admitted on DakkaDakka that they overordered on stock, and the other stores cutting prices temporarily to compete was the inevitable result.

 

I think it's fair to say that ten years of consistently netting record profits, nothing short of a sink hole/warp rift consuming Nottingham is going to cause GW to catch an L in the money pit.

 

 

I don't think anyone would suggest it wasn't a win for GW, they sold a lot of stock. What might be relevant is whether their flagship product for the year is a hit with the customer base? Has there been damage done in terms of expected sales for other stuff in the future?

[phandaal]

Just now, Mogger351 said:

I don't think anyone would suggest it wasn't a win for GW, they sold a lot of stock. What might be relevant is whether their flagship product for the year is a hit with the customer base? Has there been damage done in terms of expected sales for other stuff in the future?

 

Yup. While there is always a desire to see clickbaiters hoisted by their own petard, it is still a good point that GW's sales outside of web/physical stores are sales to stores and distributors, not players.

 

GW themselves, and the numbers they report, are insulated from direct purchasing "feedback" from customers. They would only see what they did or did not sell to independent stores, not what those stores were then able to turn around and sell on their own. It is a good model for GW, but they do risk being caught off guard.

[Helbrechts_Sword_Servitor]

2 hours ago, LSM said:

 

Anecdote and all, but: my local has a bunch of "used" sprues (MkII Tactical Squad, MkII Veterans with Disintegrators, Araknae, etc, etc) in their Horus Heresy section, where it's obvious that they've opened up unsold copies of Saturnine and bagged up the sprues with a photocopy of the build instructions.

 

I have never seen them sell "used" anything before. (Unlike the one other place I used to go to, which had a whole section for people selling/trading in stuff, in the fashion of Magic cards, etc).

Would you mind picking up a sprue of MkII with Disintegrators? If only I could find a reliable place to buy just that.

[Shard of Magnus]

A portion of the sales is likely from so many of the 30k resin kits finally being restocked (and many selling out again) for the HH3 launch. Those aren’t necessarily a sustainable recurring revenue source if they were a measurable contributor to the mid year and probably not a direct indicator of HH3 success either.  May be more of an indicator of the positive revenue impact of FOMO and staggered availability on sales cycles.

[Lord Marshal]

37 minutes ago, Shard of Magnus said:

A portion of the sales is likely from so many of the 30k resin kits finally being restocked (and many selling out again) for the HH3 launch. Those aren’t necessarily a sustainable recurring revenue source if they were a measurable contributor to the mid year and probably not a direct indicator of HH3 success either.  May be more of an indicator of the positive revenue impact of FOMO and staggered availability on sales cycles.

 

I'd be shocked if resin sales account for much, considering there's many, many people now playing Heresy who staunchly refuse to touch anything that isn't plastic. Particularly since they dropped in late 2024 that they'd be doing Legion-specific plastics eventually. I think it's more likely their resin restocks are very limited in number.

 

Those more highly advertised waves of resin restocks largely dropped post-3rd edition launch as well.

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Lord Marshal

[Dark Shepherd]

11 hours ago, Blindhamster said:

I'll keep those in mind for another time! If you're interested, One is a certain Knight Errant, One is a Flesh Tearer Chapter master and one is a Blood Angel Chapter master :P

No Dante, you have an inferno pistol at home

 

Re Meeplemart, they said theyre stoppinh selling board games altogether. Closer to home, Gamers World in Dublin also seems to be fairly low on GW inventory esp online
 

Edited 2 hours ago by Dark Shepherd

[Scribe]

17 hours ago, Captain Idaho said:

The real question is - when exposure drops and people are tired of Space Marine 5, when my age demographic is buying less (which my anecdotal evidence can support is happening at 40s)... does GW have replacement customers to pick up the torch or will it act like a sudden crash?

 

Mid 40s here, and anecdotally, yes.

 

There was enough of a spike when the tide turned, when covid bubble formed, that those people can I think carry the torch. 

 

My worry is actually Gen Z. I don't think they are going to have the purchasing power to do...anything.

 

So 5 to 10 years, I think a lot of hobbies are in for a crunch, especially luxury ones like GW.