As you can see this place is falling apart

[Pacific81]

On the subject of wargaming & GW continuing, I remember hearing this exact discussion 25 years ago about wargaming, plastic kit building, model railways, being sidelined because of video games/kids short attention spans etc. And GW has grown into the behemoth it is now during that time period. All those other things still exist too, are still big industries.

[Subtleknife]

I actually feel quite positive about GW’s future with the next generation. There are several video games on the horizon: RTS titles like Dawn of War and Mechanicus, and RPGs such as Rogue Trader and Dark Heresy, which will probably remain more niche. Then you’ve got the big blockbuster, Space Marine 3. I think Dawn of War and Space Marine 3 in particular have a strong chance of attracting people who aren’t already in the hobby, and that could bring new players into Warhammer as a whole.

 

On top of that, there’s Amazon’s project. I think this could be crucial for GW’s future exposure to new audiences. If they manage to get it right, meaning they’ll probably need to rein in Amazon’s worst tendencies, it could introduce a massive number of new players to the setting.

 

The key thing GW need to nail, which they haven't yet, is when these projects release, they need the hobby side of things in lock-step. So when SM3 releases, they need a Titus model, with a basic paint set in one box etc at a cheap price as a gateway to the hobby. As an Ultramarine fan boy, my humble suggestion, is at the launch of SM3, the UMs receive a whole host of new, exclusive, units that can be seen in the game - better yet, all future SM releases should be UM, and put Matt Ward back in charge of codex duties 

Edited November 22 by Subtleknife

[ZeroWolf]

3 hours ago, Subtleknife said:

I actually feel quite positive about GW’s future with the next generation. There are several video games on the horizon: RTS titles like Dawn of War and Mechanicus, and RPGs such as Rogue Trader and Dark Heresy, which will probably remain more niche. Then you’ve got the big blockbuster, Space Marine 3. I think Dawn of War and Space Marine 3 in particular have a strong chance of attracting people who aren’t already in the hobby, and that could bring new players into Warhammer as a whole.

 

On top of that, there’s Amazon’s project. I think this could be crucial for GW’s future exposure to new audiences. If they manage to get it right, meaning they’ll probably need to rein in Amazon’s worst tendencies, it could introduce a massive number of new players to the setting.

 

The key thing GW need to nail, which they haven't yet, is when these projects release, they need the hobby side of things in lock-step. So when SM3 releases, they need a Titus model, with a basic paint set in one box etc at a cheap price as a gateway to the hobby. As an Ultramarine fan boy, my humble suggestion, is at the launch of SM3, the UMs receive a whole host of new, exclusive, units that can be seen in the game - better yet, all future SM releases should be UM, and put Matt Ward back in charge of codex duties 

I agree but the biggest hurdle is delays on the other media side (as we saw with SM 2) GW plan their releases 3 years out and dont have the luxury of a quick turn around because of limited production facilities (machines time is pretty much fully allocated). Will this get better with Factory 4? Hopefully but We're a long way off seeing a benefit there. Easy to forget but the SM II boardgame (the one that came out in 2023) was supposed to be the tie in product but the game was pushed back so missed the launch window.

[Dark Shepherd]

For futureproofing the hobby it works well as a second screen activity so to speak, and as an antidote to screens, people can show off their painting on socials

 

As mentioned theres the Amazon shows, and if as foilracked Henry Cavill is playing Titus then that could be big. I also think theyll move all the existing bespoke animations to Amazon too

 

11th ed launch will be interesting, my prediction plucked from the back end of the warp is 500,000 (10th was 350,000) launch boxes, which at £165 a pop would be £82.5 million gross

[darkhorse0607]

11 minutes ago, ZeroWolf said:

I agree but the biggest hurdle is delays on the other media side (as we saw with SM 2) GW plan their releases 3 years out and dont have the luxury of a quick turn around because of limited production facilities (machines time is pretty much fully allocated). Will this get better with Factory 4? Hopefully but We're a long way off seeing a benefit there. Easy to forget but the SM II boardgame (the one that came out in 2023) was supposed to be the tie in product but the game was pushed back so missed the launch window.

 

GW has struggled with this for a long time, I feel as though they missed the boat on the Total War series as well (which, to this day I will die on the hill that it had a huge influence on their decision to bring back Old World) for tie-in products, the Dawn of War board game that's impossible to find is out 1-1 1/2 years before the game's launch, even on the SM2 side, they didn't even have the webstore ready with an "as seen on SM2" button for a week or two after launch. It feels as though (imo of course), that GW has been used to their tie-in media being ok, but not grabbing huge attention (for example all the turn-based computer games do ok, but aren't enough to break through), so when they do have something that succeeds, it takes them so off-guard that they have to sprint to catch up. Just a bit of growing pains as they move further into the space

 

I do wish that GW would do a better job at offering on-ramps to the hobby though, and I feel like that's one thing they need to figure out on the way to the Amazon show and SM3. Yes they have the small introductory box/the starter boxes, but that only applies to whatever the edition factions are (Tyranids vs Marines in this case)

For example, if Necrons are in SM3 as is theorized and it grabs people in large numbers like 2 did, what options are there for an easy in-road for folks that like their look? If you go into a GW then they'll try to sell you on the $170 Combat Patrol as the way to get started. Then you add on the hobby tools themselves and you're looking at easily $200+. Even if you ignore the sales pitch and just a box of Necron Warriors + hobby supplies, you're looking at over $100 fairly easily, not counting any of the books.

 

Yeah, we can say "well there's plenty of hobbies that are more expensive" but if you already have a console/PC to play SM3, then it's far cheaper (and easier to be honest) to get a new game (or several, or a subscription service) then to spend a bunch of money in a new hobby, especially in the economic environment that we are in right now.

 

Not to mention all of the specific GWisms that we are used to that others aren't, that can all be barriers 

"I saw that cool thing in SM3, so I want to buy it" 

"oh sorry, that's out of stock, it'll be back eventually"

"what do you mean eventually?"

1-63 months later

"hey, that thing is back, oh by the way it's more expensive now than when you last bought it because we did our yearly price increase"

 

I don't doubt that GW's upward trajectory will continue, but I do hope they get better on some stuff as they go. 

[phandaal]

6 hours ago, Pacific81 said:

On the subject of wargaming & GW continuing, I remember hearing this exact discussion 25 years ago about wargaming, plastic kit building, model railways, being sidelined because of video games/kids short attention spans etc. And GW has grown into the behemoth it is now during that time period. All those other things still exist too, are still big industries.

 

Yeah it is hard to tell what will happen over time to get more people into wargaming.

 

No one in the 90s was predicting that a Lord of the Rings movie trilogy would come out in the 00s and become a global phenomenon that caused fantasy wargaming to blow up.

 

People back in the 2010s were not predicting that a Space Marine video game get SM2's reception or that Warhammer would be in talks for a show.

 

Who knows what kind of 6-7 no cap chicken jockey stuff (I'm old, okay?) will come out in the next 10 years to make wargaming blow up again.

[Agrest_IW]

Easy: "Year Of Chaos" 

 

 

 

 

XD

[Dark Shepherd]

Necromunda tv show

[Lathe Biosas]

I can't believe that no one here has mentioned the obvious reason why GW is doing so well.

 

The announcement of the greatest and most realistic Ultramarine game ever, is getting a sequel: Boltgun 2.

[Dark Shepherd]

For profit projection/price breakage/11th box price speculation

 

Dark Water £160

Cursed City £125

BSF £95

 

8TH ed £95

9th ed £125

10th ed £150

 

 

[ZeroWolf]

I think we'll hit £160 for 11th edition, maybe even £165 at a push (assuming they're aiming for the same size content as Leviathan).

 

I know it's not an exact match (given AoS seems to offer more value in box contents sometimes) but how much was Skaventide again?

[Wibbling]

My little company has had to put it's prices up. The packaging tax levied recently hasn't helped. 

 

I don't know about others but I've not bought as much as I would like to. I was looking at the Emperor's Children box and said no. 

 

 

[OnePaulMurray]

When people talk about "ins" for the hobby we should remember the combat patrol magazines and other subscription services that they've used to try and ease people into it.

 

Agree that it isn't the same as a really cheap 'play now' option, but the challenge there is that anything like that would probably just be bought by existing players as a cheap means of adding bodies.

 

Not sure what the answer is. Maybe fixing some SM3-appropriate Kill Teams that aren't playable in the main game and don't rotate out?