The Frag Cannon, Blood Angels dedicated weapon ?

[Brother_Mike]

 

Your math is wrong, unfortunately - you can't get a probability above one in this example.

 

 

According to your numbers, every T4 4+ save model beneath a frag cannon template dies. This is simply not true

 

1/6 (2/12) is a failed wound, 4/6 x 1/2 (4/12) is a wound and passed armour save (= 6/12 are failures)

 

You do not then simply add this to another for the second shot.

 

A 50 % chance to kill a model does not turn into a 100 % chance with two shots. It's more like 75 %.

 

Which is, admittedly, still better than the heavy flamer, but not by the massive margin you are suggesting.

You're confusing probability and averages. 1 unsaved wound on average is indeed not the same as a 100% kill rate, of course, but that is no flaw in my math.

 

If you want to split it out into probability instead of averages, for each hit against a T4 4+ target, it has a 25% chance to do no unsaved wound, 50% chance to do 1 unsaved wound and a 25% chance to do 2 unsaved wounds.

 

That neatly averages to 1 unsaved wound per hit. So yeah, while that does mean you have a 75% to kill something, you have a 25% chance to kill two models. Which of course, also has a chance to do overkill wounds which go to waste.

 

Also, this is only for T4 models.

 

Change that to T3, 4+ save, and the flamer outperforms the frag.

 

Heavy flamer:

5/6 chance to wound and kill (120/144)

 

Frag Cannon

108/144

 

based on 4/6 to wound 1/2 to save (=4/12) + 1/6 to rend = chance for first shot to kill = 6/12 = 72/144

 

chance survives first shot, then killed by the second = 6/12 * 6/12 = 36/144

 

So, the chance that the model is killed by either the first shot, or survives only to be killed by the second is 72/144 + 36/144 = 108/144

Yes, but again, the frag cannon has a chance to do a second wound for each hit. So the average number of unsaved wounds against a T3 4+ target for a frag cannon is still 1 unsaved wound, while the average for the heavy flamer rises to 0.83 unsaved wounds. The frag cannon is still better.

 

 

 

Your math is wrong, unfortunately - you can't get a probability above one in this example.

 

 

According to your numbers, every T4 4+ save model beneath a frag cannon template dies. This is simply not true

 

1/6 (2/12) is a failed wound, 4/6 x 1/2 (4/12) is a wound and passed armour save (= 6/12 are failures)

 

You do not then simply add this to another for the second shot.

 

A 50 % chance to kill a model does not turn into a 100 % chance with two shots. It's more like 75 %.

 

Which is, admittedly, still better than the heavy flamer, but not by the massive margin you are suggesting.

You're confusing probability and averages. 1 unsaved wound on average is indeed not the same as a 100% kill rate, of course, but that is no flaw in my math.

 

If you want to split it out into probability instead of averages, for each hit against a T4 4+ target, it has a 25% chance to do no unsaved wound, 50% chance to do 1 unsaved wound and a 25% chance to do 2 unsaved wounds.

 

That neatly averages to 1 unsaved wound per hit. So yeah, while that does mean you have a 75% to kill something, you have a 25% chance to kill two models. Which of course, also has a chance to do overkill wounds which go to waste.

 

Also, this is only for T4 models.

 

Change that to T3, 4+ save, and the flamer outperforms the frag.

 

Heavy flamer:

5/6 chance to wound and kill (120/144)

 

Frag Cannon

108/144

 

based on 4/6 to wound 1/2 to save (=4/12) + 1/6 to rend = chance for first shot to kill = 6/12 = 72/144

 

chance survives first shot, then killed by the second = 6/12 * 6/12 = 36/144

 

So, the chance that the model is killed by either the first shot, or survives only to be killed by the second is 72/144 + 36/144 = 108/144

Yes, but again, the frag cannon has a chance to do a second wound for each hit. So the average number of unsaved wounds against a T3 4+ target for a frag cannon is still 1 unsaved wound, while the average for the heavy flamer rises to 0.83 unsaved wounds. The frag cannon is still better.

 

 

Calculating probabilities is fine for theory, but in this game, the dice don't always follow the probabilities. Besides, this thread isn't about probabilities or quoting huge walls of text. It's an opinion thread (see above for what I mean)

[Arkangilos]

Part of forming an opinion is how probable performance will result. So while I agree that calculating Probs don't always give us the best results, that's how some people form an opinion about it, so you can't discount those simply because it's an opinion thread.

 

They are determining whether they think it's necessary or redundant.

[Cronhour]

Torrent plus squadroning would put me in the market for at least 5 Baal predators.

 

Take note corporate! You're missing a sales opportunity.

[fivepointedstar]

Portable frag "cannons" on marines you say.. Wouldn't that be an Ogryn's ripper gun with buck shot rather than slug rounds?
I for one would love to see marines with shotgun-type weapon load outs.

Shotgun pistols =

[Grazcruzk]

Maybe it could be salvo1(2). Would make for an interesting close range dev squad!

[appiah4]

Calculating probabilities is fine for theory, but in this game, the dice don't always follow the probabilities. Besides, this thread isn't about probabilities or quoting huge walls of text. It's an opinion thread (see above for what I mean)

 

This is a misconception and a total fallacy.  The dice ALWAYS follow the probabilities; the probabilities never rule out the chance that the dice can roll against you.  A very high probability does not rule out a failure, even multiple ones, it just makes them less likely.  Saying the game does not work on the premise of probabilities or that tactics should not rely on probabilities, in a DICE GAME, is simply absurd.  It's ALL about probabilities and taking gambles on them.

[CaptainHelion]

The misconception there is that the dice should follow the bell curves across a game. Whereas in actuality, each dice roll exists purely in isolation. The probabilities and bell curves and averages and such come into play only when you're rolling hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dice, and recording the outcome of each and every one.

That is to say, the dice obey probability. We're usually just standing too close to see it.

[EesiOh]

hull mounted Frag cannon for landraider? Or maybe on the wings of a stormraven? Idk i feel like it would be cool on those because they are assault vehicles 

[Quixus]

pellet raider: hull mounted thunderfire cannon, sponson mounted frag cannons.

[Phiasco]

I love the idea of the Frag Cannon being the Blood Angel's flavor weapon. From a 'heavy frag cannon' to a 'frag pistol', I think it would be great. I've always pictured the frag cannon as a ridiculously huge shot gun. The brutal, unsubtle nature of such a weapon perfectly fits the dichotomy that is the nature of the blood angles.  

[Quixus]

I love the idea of the Frag Cannon being the Blood Angel's flavor weapon. From a 'heavy frag cannon' to a 'frag pistol', I think it would be great. I've always pictured the frag cannon as a ridiculously huge shot gun. The brutal, unsubtle nature of such a weapon perfectly fits the dichotomy that is the nature of the blood angles Flesh Tearers.  

FTFY.

 

I prefer the the amrour piercing scalpel that is a melta weapon as signature weapon for the Blood Angels themselves. Several successors seem fitting users for the frag weapons though.

[Frater Antodeniel]

"The brutal, unsubtle nature of such a weapon perfectly fits the dichotomy that is the nature of the blood angels."

 

You miss the point^^, for such a weapons may be brutal and effective yet very subtle. For Blood Angels are for many weapons artificer, quite the same way as the Salamanders. And, it is expected that such Frag-Weapons use ammunation made with some of the finest material of war. Yes, a big artificer shotgun with shard of adamantium that can pierce throught anything....And more, for the Blood Angels nature, it is well know that Fragmentation weapons make their victims bleed...

 

An artificer weapon with manufactured ammunitions are by far far far more effective than the mass products ones, don't even thing to compare a mass product weapons with an artificer one. Finest material and ammunitions make those weapons the bane of any foe...when a science become an art, it only mean that you are at the top of this science, and many Blood Angels are artist of war. =)

[Quixus]

Woops, I did miss the dichotomy part. I somehow just read "The brutal, unsubtle nature of such a weapon perfectly fits the nature of the blood angels."

 

Still I think that even a well made blunderbuss/shotgun is not a subtle weapon, so there is no dichotomy. While the dichotomy of brutality and rage on one side and noble sacrifice and artistry on the other exists in the IX legion as a whole, the Blood Angels strongly lean to the latter and the Flesh Tearers to the other. Now if all frag weapons were crafted beyond the exacting standards of all Astartes weapons I would see your point, but their craftsmanship is not special as far as I know.

[Teetengee]

The misconception there is that the dice should follow the bell curves across a game. Whereas in actuality, each dice roll exists purely in isolation. The probabilities and bell curves and averages and such come into play only when you're rolling hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dice, and recording the outcome of each and every one.

That is to say, the dice obey probability. We're usually just standing too close to see it.

Depends on how much of the weapon you are using, and how many dice the weapon throws. More dice= less swingy.

 

Also, we can actually do statistical analysis based on that sort of scenario, but it is more complex.

 

When I get a chance and if people are interested, I can do the math for chance of exact scenarios and outcomes if people want. (For instance, chance of wiping a unit of 8 when you can put the template over 5 of them.)

[Charlo]

pellet raider: hull mounted thunderfire cannon, sponson mounted frag cannons.

The thunder fire raider exists (I want to say Achillies) but flame storms are better already available sponsons

[Quixus]

I know, It was a suggestion for the theme not for its effectiveness.

[Charlo]

All good buddy! Tbh it would look super cool. The frag cannon model is just ace.

[Omega-soul]

So it's been a less than  a half-year for our  dream to come in  plastic)

 

Still - it's not a BA ddicated weapon but i think  we can hope for a new devastator box.

 

But for now we can  collect those plastic bits and make a fan-almost-official dev squad with frag cannons)

 

So the question  is - what price should frag cannon  have?

For our Furioso it's a 5 point for exchanging on fist with bolter which is something like 10 points - so 15  points per gun?

Should our tactical/sternguard have access to that?

[Brother apocalyptic]

Sign me up for 10 sternguards with 10 combifrags...

[Spagunk]

I'd totally deck out a sternguard squad with dual frag cannons if we could. That'd be a super fantastic hot drop unit!

[EesiOh]

So it's been a less than  a half-year for our  dream to come in  plastic)

 

Still - it's not a BA ddicated weapon but i think  we can hope for a new devastator box.

 

But for now we can  collect those plastic bits and make a fan-almost-official dev squad with frag cannons)

 

So the question  is - what price should frag cannon  have?

For our Furioso it's a 5 point for exchanging on fist with bolter which is something like 10 points - so 15  points per gun?

Should our tactical/sternguard have access to that?

it feels really wierd that GW gave it to the DW Imperial Fist... Like.... wut

[Paikis]

 

So it's been a less than  a half-year for our  dream to come in  plastic)

 

Still - it's not a BA ddicated weapon but i think  we can hope for a new devastator box.

 

But for now we can  collect those plastic bits and make a fan-almost-official dev squad with frag cannons)

 

So the question  is - what price should frag cannon  have?

For our Furioso it's a 5 point for exchanging on fist with bolter which is something like 10 points - so 15  points per gun?

Should our tactical/sternguard have access to that?

it feels really wierd that GW gave it to the DW Imperial Fist... Like.... wut

 

 

It's not really that weird. I mean, they gave them the Stormravens as well.

 

I really hope our next codex has these as an option for our Devastators (and NOT Tacticals), as well as either fixing our Terminators to be useful, or giving us access to the Centurions.

 

A man can dream right?

[Frater Antodeniel]

In my vision, the Frag Cannon, best place is in the Devastator Squad and the Terminators Squad :

 

=> Should a dedicated Blood Angels Devastator Squad appear, i imagine it with Frag Cannon, Assault Cannon, and  Autocannon, this three weapons fitting very well with the blood angels modus operanti. Plus, with those three options, it would lead to either an "Assault Devastator Squad with Frag Cannon", a "Tactical Devastator Squad with Assault Cannon", or a "Long Range Devastator Squad with Autocannon".

 

=> Should a dedicated Blood Angels Decent Tactical Terminator Squad appear, i imagine it with a Frag Cannon option, the same way the Plasma Cannon for the Dark Angels TDA Squad.

 

---------------------------------------

 

Personnally i'm not for Blood Angels Centurion. Should we pick one thing from the SM range, it should be the Land Speeder Storm.

[Quixus]

In my vision, the Frag Cannon, best place is in the Devastator Squad and the Terminators Squad :

 

=> Should a dedicated Blood Angels Devastator Squad appear, i imagine it with Frag Cannon, Assault Cannon, and  Autocannon, this three weapons fitting very well with the blood angels modus operanti. Plus, with those three options, it would lead to either an "Assault Devastator Squad with Frag Cannon", a "Tactical Devastator Squad with Assault Cannon", or a "Long Range Devastator Squad with Autocannon".

I don't remember ever seeing an infantry assault cannon on a non-TDA model. Infantry Auto Cannons seem to be for heretics only these days.

 

Personnally i'm not for Blood Angels Centurion. Should we pick one thing from the SM range, it should be the Land Speeder Storm.

I totally agree. The Stormtalon comes a close second though IMHO.

[Theduke08]

"The brutal, unsubtle nature of such a weapon perfectly fits the dichotomy that is the nature of the blood angels."

 

You miss the point^^, for such a weapons may be brutal and effective yet very subtle. For Blood Angels are for many weapons artificer, quite the same way as the Salamanders. And, it is expected that such Frag-Weapons use ammunation made with some of the finest material of war. Yes, a big artificer shotgun with shard of adamantium that can pierce throught anything....And more, for the Blood Angels nature, it is well know that Fragmentation weapons make their victims bleed...

 

An artificer weapon with manufactured ammunitions are by far far far more effective than the mass products ones, don't even thing to compare a mass product weapons with an artificer one. Finest material and ammunitions make those weapons the bane of any foe...when a science become an art, it only mean that you are at the top of this science, and many Blood Angels are artist of war. =)

 

Where has it ever said anything about And more, for the Blood Angels nature, it is well know that Fragmentation weapons make their victims bleed.   Im very confused about that concept.  Blood Angels have never to my knowledge cared about making them bleed... Just about killing them close.