Militarum Tempestus Scion Hotshot vs Plasma [math]

[Emicus]

Edit: Hot-shot Volley Gun vs Plasma
​Edit: 10 CSM (bolters) vs 10 Scions (Hotshot)

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Got in a silly argument with a friend that keeps complaining about how bad Chaos has it. So I posited that actually, Scions have it worse off than anyone else. Why? Because we have a grand total of five unit choices, where two are practically the same unit (command vs troop scions) and all are lifted from the guard codex. Oh, but we do get some different guns on the Taurox, woop-de-doop.
​
So naturally he tells me "but you get Ap3 guns standard on your dudeskies..."
And I'm sure you all know this but the Hotshots kinda suck... compared to Plasma Guns. Let's take a look!

​Scion Command, 4 plasma guns, 1 hotshot pistol (ignored for calculations) - 145 points
​Scion whatever, 4 hotshot Lasguns, 1 hotshot pistol - 70 points.

​Let's see if twice (~207%) the cost is worth it (against T4 and 3+ armour, the basic chaos troop, but do substitute with something you'd like to kill)

​24"
Plasma, 2.2 wounds.
​Hotshots, nothing.

​18"
​Plasma, 2.2 wounds.
Hotshots, 0.88 wound.

​12"
Plasma, 4.4 wounds.
​Hotshots, 1.1 wounds.

​9"
Plasma, 4.4 wounds.
​Hotshots, 1.98 wounds.

​Other benefits of Plasma:

• Works equally well against 2+ armour.
• Works equally well against T5.
• Can threaten, in a pinch, T10 whereas Hotshots peter out at T6.

Drawback of Plasma:

• Overheating and death.
• Unit costs twice as much, and you need those pesky troops to unlock them.

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Scion Command w/4 Plasma Guns cost ~207% more than Scion Troops w/Hotshots. At worst the Plasma is 222% better at Hotshots optimal range (9”), eking out a small lead in cost/performance making them best at all ranges. At best they win by 400% (12") or arguably infinite% (24").

There is a host of benefits for Plasma including extra range, ability to wreck terminators, threaten higher toughness values and more, even if it has the drawback of potentially killing you.

The Command unit also has Orders (Twin-linking baby!) and a Hotshot pistol that wasn’t even factored.

Granted you need 2x Troops to unlock 2x Command anyway, but stacking Plasma (or Melta?) for days ​is the way to go.
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TLDR: Hotshots suck, Plasma rulez.

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[WarriorFish]

Whenever someone starts complaining about their army I find it's usually best to replace whatever they're saying with white noise in your head :P They're not interested in any other army, only why their own isn't the biggest and bestest so you're wasting your time. We know that Stormies need a boost, we know that Chaos does too. This doesn't invalidate any other book that needs a buff either (Sisters, Guard...).

[CoffeeGrunt]

Anyone who has ran Scions could tell you that they're pretty weak. :P

[CyderPirate]

Shhh, don't let the marine players hear you. They cower in fear at our armour-piercing pea shooters

[Emicus]

Whenever someone starts complaining about their army I find it's usually best to replace whatever they're saying with white noise in your head :P They're not interested in any other army, only why their own isn't the biggest and bestest so you're wasting your time. We know that Stormies need a boost, we know that Chaos does too. This doesn't invalidate any other book that needs a buff either (Sisters, Guard...).

I know.. I know. But this friend is notorious about complaining and I wanted to rile him up a bit. And you just can't argue with numbers!

 

"You have a heavy support unit, shut up" didn't prove sufficient you see. Figured sharing the math with the wider community could prove beneficial for boding Scion players :)

[WarriorFish]

In that case, perhaps rather than internal white noise maybe you should be voicing it out loud so all can hear? :lol: Sounds like a classic case of One Army Syndrome to me, sadly there is no known cure other than to stand on the other side of the fence...

[CoffeeGrunt]

I personally think some way of giving Scions Shred would help them. Perhaps as an Order?

 

They pale in comparison to Tau Breachers, for example.

[CyderPirate]

Does one of their orders not give them sniper? 4s instead of 5s/6s is better than nothing I guess...

[WarriorFish]

What about making their guns Assault 2? Would up their ability to do damage but without damaging their mobility, which should always be core to how they work.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Maybe. The Sniper one is nice, but it's only one shot. Only worthwhile against T5+ models or models outside of 9", and rarely better than just slapping FRFSRF on them.

[Inso]

The best general uses what he has at his disposal in the most effective way.

 

Instead of focussing on weakness, focus on what they can do well and base your tactics around that, whilst remaining mindful of the flaws. 

 

But... the biggest thing to remember is 'no plan survives contact with the enemy' so even if you have planned for every eventuality, someone will turn up and unpick the plan.

[CyderPirate]

 

But... the biggest thing to remember is 'no plan survives contact with the enemy' so even if you have planned for every eventuality, the dice will unpick the plan.

 

Fixed that one for you :D

[CoffeeGrunt]

Yup, like you better hope your opponent don't roll a six after you deploy, otherwise you gotta watch the artillery pound your army into scrap and hope that there's enough left to fight back with. :P

[CyderPirate]

Don't even joke about that, the last three games I've played, my opponent has seized the initiative and then tabled me... 

[CoffeeGrunt]

I've been tempted to write a house ruleset for 40K that changes a few annoyances for me, but it'd basically just make it like other games, in which case I might as well just play those other games.

[duz_]

What happens if you re crunch the numbers assuming the scion squad had more members to the equal cost of the plasma gun squad and they got the sniper order off?

 

I think that's the best way to play HSLGs in a 5-7 man squad with that order 4+/AP3 6s rend

[march10k]

What about making their guns Assault 2? Would up their ability to do damage but without damaging their mobility, which should always be core to how they work.

This would be nice...it's possibly even better than the entirely reasonable demand that we get pistol, rifle, and knife back (for +1a and one shot on the charge).

[HenricusTyranicus]

Okay...so recalculating for equal number of points ( As close as possible, with sniper order)

 

Scion Command squad, 4 plasma: 145 points.

 

Scion squad, 10 man, vox caster: 135 points.

 

Targeting MEQ

 

18 inches:

Plasma: 2.2 wounds

 

Hotshot: 3 wounds

 

12 inches:

Plasma 4.4

Hotshot: 3

 

9 inches (No sniper order)

 Hotshot: 4 wounds

 

6 inches: (No sniper order)

  Hotshot: 4.2

 

Hotshots aren't worthless. If you're running Tempestus alone, you should be doing it for fun and fluff, not competition, but a Tempestus Strike force can find their way into many armies.

 

With plasma, bear in mind you're making yourself even more of a glass cannon with 50% of the durability, and only between 1 and half a wound gained on MEQ. 

[Emicus]

Thanks for crunching those numbers HenricusTyranicus even though I don't feel it's appropriate it's more data to show the world. I've also revisited my math above because I've inadvertently given the Pistol twice it's intended range.... oops. I wholeheartedly agree that 10 men survive twice as well as 5 men, but the topic at hand was "but those ap3 hotshots" and not necessarily what's best to take in any given game. Thought if you want to murder someone dead before they can strike you back, you can't go far wrong with the power of the sun at your disposal.

 

If anyone wants data for 10men hotshot troops vs 5man plasma command with no orders I've crunched the numbers in the following spoilertag  

 

24"
​Plasma, 2.2 wounds.
​Hotshots, nada.

 

18"
​Plasma, 2.2 wounds.
Hotshots, 2 wounds.

​12"
Plasma, 4.4 wounds.
​Hotshots, 2.22 wounds.

 

9"
​Plasma, 4.4 wounds.

Hotshots, 4.22wounds. 

 

 

To summarise:
Plasma is better for kill/cost in any range bracket and has other benefits as well. In 9" or less and 18"-12.1" range the increased kill rate on Plasma is neligible and the doubled durability plays a larger role. Not calculated here but Hotshots would also be more effective versus T8-10 Ap3+, that are not Gargantuan, with Orders thanks to Sniper.

 

​Why do I feel that bumping up unit numbers to match points is not necessary? Because when I ran the numbers I had already factored for cost, so increasing the unit size it still amounts to the same thing in the end, the "awesome ap3 hotshot" doesn't deliver compared to Plasma. Now everyone knows Plasma is great, but nobody has (so far) told me that Scions are chez because they can take a lot of Plasma... it's always those peashooters (thanks for that Cyderpirate!).

In a similar vein I didn't factor for orders because... if you want orders that'll cop you 85 points worth of Command, thank you very much, and the Command squad is more likely to be buffing itself.

[Emicus]

I've been (jokingly) told that the Hot-shots aren't what *real* Kasrkin used to have so comparing with Hot-shot Volley Guns is more appropriate. Okay.
​Command Squad w/4 Plasma guns (145) vs Command Squad w/4 Hot-shot Volley Guns (125)

​~13.783% point difference, or call it 14%. Meaning plasma needs to do >14% more damage in order to win the cost/performance race. If Volley Gun wins, remember it does so for cheaper, just to add insult to (burn? Plasma burns right?) injury.​

 

24"
​Plasma, 2.2 Wounds.

Volley Gun, 5.5 Wounds.
​(Volley Gun 250% better) 

 

12"
​Plasma, 4.4 Wounds.
​Volley Gun, 5.5 Wounds.

​(Volley Gun 25% better)

​6"
​Both get +0.22 Wounds from the Hot-Shot Laspistol Tempestor Prime.

 

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A vastly different result! The strengths of Plasma still stands (T5 and 2+ armour is effectively the same target, and you can threaten up to T10 versus Volley Gun T7), but there is now another thing to factor in - movement.
If the Volley Gun moves it loses half it's range and half it's shots.

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​24", Movement
Plasma, 2.2 Wounds.
​Volley gun, nada.

​12", Movement
Plasma, 4.4 Wounds.
​Volley Gun, 2.66 Wounds.
​(Plasma 60% better)

 

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​Moving is horrible for the Volley Gun but if you can stand still it's a clear winner against T4 3+ armour (or worse) targets. It becomes even better with the Twin-Linking order because it has a higher volume of fire if you stand still. I don't feel it's necessary to calculate moving with the Volley Gun again because it's not great (see above).

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​24", Twin-linked
​Plasma, 2.96 Wounds.
Volley Gun, 7.11 Wounds.
(Volley Gun 240% better)

​12", Twin-linked
Plasma, 5.93 Wounds.
​Volley Gun, 7.11 Wounds.
​(Volley Gun 20% better)

​6", Twin-linked
​Add 0.3 Wounds from Hot-shot Laspistol to both.

 

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In summary. If you are creating a zero-movement gun bunker, need to threaten MEQ or worse and Order your other minions around; accept no substitute for the Hot-shot Volley gun. Volley Gun is 250% more efficient at 24" and 25% more efficient at 12" compared to Plasma - all while saving you 14% points and being able to buff someone else with aforementioned orders. The efficiency actually drops (still beating Plasma by a large margin though) if you use the Twin-Linking order (250->240% and 25->20% at 24" and 12" respectively).

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​TLDR:

• Gunbunker, MEQ destroyer, laz0rz are cool -> Hot-shot Volley Gun.
• All-rounder, power of the sun, pwnage -> Plasma Gun.

[Teetengee]

Don't forget gets hot. More gets hot shots means over the course of a game (assuming you can survive that long) means you lose more models to your own 1s.

[Emicus]

Absolutely true! 8% chance per shot without twin-linking and I believe 4% chance with (after saves).

 

With twin-linking, shooting 4 shots per turn over 6 game turns, barring overwatch, a unit has a 96% chance of suffering a Wound from Gets Hot!

 

I still feel the benefits far out-weigh the risk, and besides, who will let Plasma rain unremittingly on them for so long? As mentioned before, T3 4+ saves will die to pretty much anything.

 

For a 'maim the enemy so hard on the drop he won't recover' we will require as much oomph as possible, and damn the melting consequences!

[HenricusTyranicus]

Which does bring up, of course, the question of which one deals the most damage over the whole game? Plasma, for example, are probably only gonna get one round off before they are rage killed. 10 man hotshot las squad, sadly, will probably suffer a similar fate, because people do rate that AP3 pretty highly, maybe more than it deserves. On the other hand, if you're skilled, you can use it as a distraction carnifex which will be vaguely annoying to kill. T3 4+ may not exactly be the great, but with 10 wounds, you might force that riptide to look your way. In the meantime, he discovers you were only distracting his firepower to get punisher Pask into place. Then he discovers that the Tempestor is, in fact, Creed, and the scion squad is a Baneblade. CRRREEEEEED!!!

[Emicus]

If we stick to Militarum Tempestus options I reckon a (very expensive) Taurox Prime with Missiles, Autocannons and Camo-netting is 'king' of survival.

 

It can fire 48" so stays out of the way, and because of it's size shouldn't be too hard to keep in 75% cover for a sweet 3+ cover save.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Which does bring up, of course, the question of which one deals the most damage over the whole game? Plasma, for example, are probably only gonna get one round off before they are rage killed. 10 man hotshot las squad, sadly, will probably suffer a similar fate, because people do rate that AP3 pretty highly, maybe more than it deserves. On the other hand, if you're skilled, you can use it as a distraction carnifex which will be vaguely annoying to kill. T3 4+ may not exactly be the great, but with 10 wounds, you might force that riptide to look your way. In the meantime, he discovers you were only distracting his firepower to get punisher Pask into place. Then he discovers that the Tempestor is, in fact, Creed, and the scion squad is a Baneblade. CRRREEEEEED!!!

 

Not sure how AP3 weapons threaten a Riptide, though, and Riptides wouldn't be committed to killing T3 4+ targets.