Primaris Space Marine Numbers

[Panzer]

What would be the point of making old ones if they can make and equip the newer ones? It’s been a hundred years. They might’ve been mixed before, they aren’t going to be now with their attrition rates.

 

Available gear in the armoury would be one explanation. The other would be that you have only a limited amount of Primaris you can produce at a time due how many pods you have available so if there are more promising recruits you turn them into regular Marines. Regular Marines are still Marines. Just because Primaris are better it doesn't make regular Marines suddenly useless. ^^

[Robbienw]

I know I lean on the aggressive replacement approach. But I’d like to see how GW sees it happening.

 

 

GW have already answered this question, and have put forward what is happening:

 

"Most Chapters now have the means and technology to create Primaris Space Marines of their own (drawn from their usual recruitment worlds), though many still choose to create standard Space Marines as well for their more flexible and readily available equipment and combat doctrines."

 

It was pretty obvious before that statement that this is what was happening in the fluff though.  It was stated in the BA codex that they are still making standard marines, for example.  The fact that you still have whole units of standard marines available in large number speaks to the fact they are still being created.  If they weren't, you'd really expect only a remnant left 120 years after primaris marines were introduced, especially considering the state of the dark imperium galaxy and the massive casualties marine chapters were taking prior to and just after the opening of the rift.

 

You may not like their reasoning for doing it this way and think it doesn't make sense, but that's the way it is currently. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Robbienw

[Leif Bearclaw]

I say it would take 800 years for 95% of a full strength chapter to be converted to Primaris. Space marines can easily live for a thousand years. Chapter masters do not often die. I the past it would take 300 years (marked by service studs) to become a captain. Some of the higher ranking members of the chapter are not as frequently in the combat, namely the reserves, and their officers. Even though times are at their worst, a good number of chapters are probably not loosing the bulk of their forces.

 

I used to be a pool operator. It takes the filter an hour to cycle through about a third of the pool. So a mathematician may tell you it takes 3 hours to filter the entire pool. Well, he would be wrong. It takes 10 hours, because the second hour isn’t filtering an entire new third of the water.

 

If a company suffers 20 casualties per battle, the majority of those casualties will be the least experienced, as experience gives you tools to survive better. New Primaris marines, while stronger than those they replace, will likely be taking a good portion of those casualties, and the veterans will die out slower.

 

800 years.

 

Well Marines don't easily live for a thousand years. The only non-Dreadnought Marine I can think of that's that old is Dante, and he's noteworthy for being extremely long lived. Getting to 500 seems a noteworthy feat, as characters like Cassius, Ulrik and Logan are noted for their extreme age compared to their peers. So it seems even under normal operations (without galaxy shaking disasters etc.) Marine Chapters would cycle through the vast majority of their personnel in less than 500 years.

 

You're also overlooking that it seems the vast majority of Primaris reinforced Chapters were not at full strength. Chapters were being put through the meatgrinder, they were losing the bulk of their forces, that's one of the main justifications for the spread of Primaris in the first place. The Chapters needed fresh blood, and the new shiny hotness, to deal with the threats they were facing on all fronts.

 

Plus, your numbers seem too generous. Say you're right, and a company averages 20 deaths per battle (20% KIA is actually shockingly high, but whatever). How many battle will a Company fight over 1 year, 10 years, 100 years? Even if they only lose 1 'veteran' per battle and fight once a year (which is underestimating both likely number of engagements and rate of veteran attrition) that's an entire company of veterans (plus nearly 2000 replacements) dead in a century. Then when you consider Marine organisation, they're not sending green troops into the Battle Companies, there's probably less of a distinction between 'new guy' and 'vet' than we've seen in rl armies, so the losses are probably more evenly spread than this hypothetical.

 

So yeah, 800 years is far, far too long a time scale for Primaris replacement. Granted, as we're only dealing with 100 years nobody should expect old Marines to be extinct in all Chapters by the 'present'. But without making fresh old Marines (and I know GW say that's what happening, but that's for commercial reasons, not consistent world building), they would definitely be in the minority and one the way out if a Chapter switched to Primaris for replenishment.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Leif Bearclaw

[Panzer]

I feel like this is a good time to remind everyone that Marine warfare makes not much sense when looking closely at the numbers. Chapters are just way too small for how things are supposed to work.

[Boldthreat]

Here’s how I see it. Let’s work with some assumptions. This is a Chapter that is stuck in Imperium Nihilus. They did not get 1 Primaris marine from the Indomitus Crusade but they did get 1 progenoid gland of the new gene stock with the schematics on implantation and equipment. Let’s also assume that the chapter was relatively unscathed during the 13th Black Crusade and the Opening Of the Great Rift.

 

A while back, Apoligist posted his theory on life expectancy of Space Marines as well as his theory on how they would organize. I’m going off memory so forgive me. It’s a great piece and worth the read. In short, he assumes 6 casualties a year per task force. I’m paraphrasing but a task force is a Battle Company with 1st Company and Reserve Company elements. So that’s 4. 24 casualties a year across 4 independent actions. Most of this time is travel time. Keep in mind that most Astartes actions would be quick lightning strikes where the elite and experienced space marines would be maximizing their strengths and trying to completely mitigate their enemies. The even matches would be rare. But would probably be where most of the casualties happen... in instances where they were evenly matched or it was a costly defensive action.

 

Let’s also assume that of those 6 losses per task group, most of it is the newer marines. So let’s say 1 veteran, 2 experienced, 3 inexperienced. So 4 Veterans, 8 experienced and 12 inexperienced marines a year.

 

That is 400 Veterans, 800 experienced and 1200 inexperienced space marines in a century. Whoa. But remember these are space marines. Who don’t get tired and who are either fighting, going to a fight or coming back from one. Who knows how many engagements a year they take part in. In the grim darkness of the far future this is actually shockingly awesome.

 

Now back to the Primaris. We now have 1 progenoid gland to start making the new breed of super soldiers. This new breed is stronger, faster and twice as survivable. It’s a no brainer. And since it is coming from our Patriarch who we deified for 10,000 years we are on board. We only have 1000 billets so transitioning as quickly as possible would be a good idea. The faster we are all Primaris the better the chapter will be.

 

It will take 50 years to turn that one progenoid gland into 1000 sets. That’s before a single one gets used to produce organs and implanted into a Neophyte. While that is happening we have the Chapter Armory plus whatever help we can get working overtime to produce the equipment per the schematics we were given. Also in the meantime we don’t stop fighting. We don’t stop dying and we don’t stop recruiting. Let’s assume we at the least recruit 24 Neophytes a year. So we are breaking even and we honestly couldn’t afford to not. It would be devestating. In that half a century, we would lose 1200 gen 1s and replace them with gen 1s. The later half of the century would see us roll out the first batch of Primaris.

 

In that 50 years we lose 1200 Astartes. But let’s not even factor in that the Primaris are twice as survivable as their older counter parts... which should skew this. 200 Veteran gen 1s buy the farm. 400 experienced gen 1s do as well. And 600 Inexperienced Primaris have short careers over that 50 year period. That is already a Chapters worth of Space Marine Gen 1s dead being replaced by Primaris. So in 100 years, you have on average 600 Primaris starting to move up to the Battle Companies replacing gen 1s that will never see another gen 1 again. Most of your concentration of Gen 1s would be in the Veteran Company or in specialist/command roles. The next 50 years would see you become almost completely Primaris with a few bad ass Gen 1s hanging on despite the Galaxies best efforts. Who we now know are probably taking the risk to upgrade themselves as Primaris at this point. Like Calgar. That makes the transition even faster. Even though risking your experienced Gen 1s like that would be criminal in my opinion. Calgar should be censured for risking himself in such a manner... even though it worked out. That was a pride thing more than anything.

 

Now this is a simple thought process whilst on my phone in my truck. I understand that this would be rolling over time. That initial rollout is also not accounting for 10 years or so of training and implantation and acceptance into the reserve companies. So you might see half of the neophytes in that half century be Gen 1s. But also note we aren’t even talking about marines retiring yet. Age is a thing, even for Space Marines. 100 to 150 years might not mean much to the younger Marines... but captains and masters who were 400 to 700 years plus before the Indomitus Crusade... that’s pushing it. Maybe transitioning to Primaris pushes that age band out more... I don’t know. But what’s clear is that in 150 years the Gen 1s should be on the out. Attrition will see the first major influx of Primaris Veterans pour into the 1st Company in great numbers and command elements as well. We are what, 120... 130 years past the start of the Indomitus Crusade? It’s getting close.

 

There are 3?things that throw this off in my opinion... When in the Indomitus Crusade did your chapter get the schematics and progenoid gland? How depleted were you when this happened? And once you started making Primaris... did you keep make traditional Astartes as well? But that also could be sped up considering if you got more than the Spears did. I’m not saying there shouldn’t be Gen 1s laying around. Surely. But in any significant capacity? I don’t know.

 

But the critical piece to all of this is if we only got what the Spears got. The Crimson Fists got what? 400 to 500 Primaris from Guilliman himself? The Blood Angels and their lot got what? The Scythes were rebuilt as well. That rapidly moves up the transition time table. We know the Blood Angels kept making Gen 1s. When should they stop? Who knows. I wouldn’t make another Gen 1 the moment I could make Primaris on a consistent level.

 

I’m just diving in to this stuff. It’s clear at this point traditional Astartes are being made in some capacity. I may disagree with why. But facts are facts. But it’s also pushing me more and more to my DIY project heh... but to be clear, and in the spirit of debate... I believe Gen 1s are on the outs in 150 years... and extinct with a few hold overs in 200.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Boldthreat

[MegaVolt87]

As far as mixed chapters with Primaris and old marines, I could see the cap being exceeded by re-building old marine numbers steadily with most of the fighting by the quicker turn around with Primaris recruits doing the bulk of the fighting for a while. Plus the 1k cap is likely exceeded in a lot of cases anyway, even without Primaris. Say you get at least 100+ Primaris from Cawl, you could have a chapter re-built at 1100-1200+. You are not disobeying because your extra numbers were the Primaris. Also the deal was about accepting the Primaris, not how many you have in an established chapter with old marines. Letting all the Primaris die out for you would be more suspicious, wasteful and an insult to RG, Cawl, the Custodes and the Emperor than an over strength chapter in the Dark Imperium era. Especially when chapters are anexing more systems under their protection these days to bolster the Imperium. Look at RG putting the Void Tridents on Talassar as their new homeworld, fortifying Ultramar. Huron was ahead of his time, if he just tithed his geneseed and did what he was doing then in the current era he would have been good. His initial goals were sound, how he executed it no so much. 

[Stoic Raptor]

Remember Bobby G kind of revised/threw away the old Codex Astartes, so those limits don't apply.  Even the Ultamarines themselves have more than 10 companies now.

[Ishagu]

The Codex Astartes is being phased out and replaced by the more sweeping and reforming: Codex Imperialis

[MegaVolt87]

Remember Bobby G kind of revised/threw away the old Codex Astartes, so those limits don't apply.  Even the Ultamarines themselves have more than 10 companies now.

 

Could be wrong, but I think UM were always technically a 1200+ marine chapter pre Dark Imperium, they had the Honor Guard company at Cadia, the forgotten company of 100 post heresy at was it guarding the Pharos (?). I would be surprised if most chapters (BT excluded) could exceed 1500 marines of all stripes in the Dark Imperium era, Imperium seems more on the offensive these days. My head cannon for SW is they could be easily a 1500 marine chapter at peak, even back in the day because of great companies. 

Edited July 24, 2019 by MegaVolt87

[Jerethdatiger]

 

Glad to see some consistency!

Yeah. It’s actually stated twice in this WD. There is a short story about the Blood Ravens who met the emeritus custodes, and the custodes sheild captain states that Primaris Marines fight for the imperium in their tens of thousands.

 

Interestingly the Blood Ravens don’t receive any of Cawls ready made Primaris. They just get geneseed and the technology to make Primaris.

 

That technology includes a dozen Mechanicus magi and hundred of various medicae personnel and thralls to be incorporated into the Blood Ravens to be able to do it.

 

The Blood Raven are given enough geneseed to make ‘over a hundred’ aspirants.

 

Many years after the meeting with the custodes takes place, the Blood Ravens are described as having ‘hundreds’ of Primaris Marines.

 

Consider this.

 

100 sets of genseed to make primaris assumptions inculede 100% success.

10 years after marines are made which takes a year or so using new technologies similar to blood angels.

 

They can then harvest genseed which in led two of the 3 new organs "durametallic alloy coils can't be grown."

 

And repeat.

So about every 15 years the genseed amount doubles. So many years 500 is primaris is probobly accurate.

 

Also the last point concerning old marines. The rubicon only gives them the organs and makes them bigger. It doesn't incorporate into mature genseed from what I can tell. So while you could keep making old marines. Why would you other then chapter blood legacy.