Space Marines at the Las Vegas Nopen 2021

[Waking Dreamer]

I was really proud of the GKs...just losing out in the quarter finals as the player wasn't as confident with the list given to him. I have no doubt if it was one of the more experienced Aussie players - who were more familiar with the list the GKs could have reached the finals!

 

In round 2, the GKs were down 8-43 points at the beginning of Turn 3, but the Aussie player brought it around to a close victory of 67-61. Similarly round 3/Quarter finals the GK player was down something like 3-35 at the end of Turn 2, but simply couldn't break through the SoB-Custodes combo army...inevitably losing the tourney there.

[quasistellar]

I don't know which round it was, but I caught one game over the weekend where I was horrified seeing the BA so totally mis-played. Sanguinary Guard left out in the open, about a fifth of the army evaporating just like that. I didn't really care for that list though, spamming more Sanguinary Guard than are even supposed to exist in the fluff shouldn't be representative of an army. Perhaps they were on loan from a successor chapter? But alas, for competitive lists that's all we seem to have. 

 

Similarly, Sisters do seem to be strong, but beyond Repentia spam, are they really? Or is this that situation where there's one strong unit/faction, and beyond that one build the rest of it is pretty average? 

yeah the vanguard tactics guy told his opponent that was playing the BA that he couldn’t win so the guy went with it and yolo sacrificed literally all his sanguinary guard (there were like 25 I think?) turn one standing in the open and in almost guaranteed charge range of all the repentia. Well, duh, of course you lose when you do that lol.

[BLACK BLΠFLY]

What channel had that game? I thought that Play On Tabletop also threw a game.

[SkimaskMohawk]

Well that same bloody rose list also lost when they let the dark eldar player retroactively roll for CP refund and then got vectd as a result lol.

[quasistellar]

What channel had that game? I thought that Play On Tabletop also threw a game.

vanguard tactics. Is the channel I believe. I think the Play On guys had that crazy smash bros magnus mortarion list? As strong as it was it looked like a list that someone unfamiliar could really fail badly with. I didn’t see that match though.

[Prot]

Well that same bloody rose list also lost when they let the dark eldar player retroactively roll for CP refund and then got vectd as a result lol.

 

 

Actually I saw that game. I respected the guy for allowing his opponent to do that, and in my opinion it was a great show of sportsmanship and I would have done the same thing in any tournament. (I typically am only stringent against very stringent opponents.)

 

But yes, it was quite the moment. I saw the Vect coming, and it literally changed the outcome of that game imho. If that didn't happen, I believe we may very well have seen two SoB's in the finale perhaps?

 

 

What channel had that game? I thought that Play On Tabletop also threw a game.

vanguard tactics. Is the channel I believe. I think the Play On guys had that crazy smash bros magnus mortarion list? As strong as it was it looked like a list that someone unfamiliar could really fail badly with. I didn’t see that match though.

 

 

This was my point about the marines having poor results. I believe each marine player lost their opening games (meaning they invented the lists- they weren't played by someone who didn't know the mechanics.) 

 

The smash Bro's list was controversial. It was ruled for the Nopen you could play two Primarchs in one army. It was a more complicated list to play by a non-chaos player. But it wasn't Play On. Play on had Ultramarines which got hit pretty hard in the second half of their first game by Dark Eldar (the very same list that would go on to win the Nopen.)

 

The Smash Bro's controversial list was played by a very good Chaos player from... Steel City (?) something like that. It was played properly in the psychic phase and faced a very tanky Salamanders army and beat it pretty solidly. 

 

So much for marines owning the meta. This was really the only point I was trying to make. 

 

I'm fortunate in that I get to play regularly. I'm down to one game a week right now, but will probably be up 2 games this week. Early on I kept hearing from my opponent's how OP marines were, and I just got really tired of it.

 

I put my marines away for a few months, only pulling them out if my opponent absolutely wanted to face them. 

 

In the meantime I pulled out my other rotation of armies. Some of them I don't even really care for. The win ratio I continued to have was extremely high. (I hate posting this... but I have to finish the point I'm trying to make.)

 

I found as a result, even with my pure Craftworld eldar I went about 12-1 that my opponents were largely playing 8th edition. I hated... I mean -hated- the way I had to play Eldar, but some of their units are fantastic at bullying. 

 

At the end of my 2-3 month experiment I became exceptionally fed up with the marine "OP argument" but I knew GW would downgrade a few things as a result... and they have and will continue to do so.

 

Now we have some seriously competent, high end codexes out.... Death Guard, and Dark Angels. Now we have an online tournament featuring strong, competitive players and a decent mix of armies, with a good dose of Marine armies (4- not including Grey Knights, which outperformed all marines anyway) and the result is Dark Eldar are darn good, and SoB are what everyone thought they would be; top tier. 

 

I had a couple of games recently, still not using my marines, and I believe it will be safe for me to bring them out now... especially with big Mort, and the DA books out. There's a new bad guy in town that can take the heat for a while.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Prot

[SkimaskMohawk]

Prot I agree it was good sportsmanship and I viewed the nopen as more of an exhibition for charity rather than tournament. In a real one I'd expect my opponent to remember that kind of stuff and also not expect concessions going my way.

 

I also played marines for the last year of 8th and basically up until late December; my collection going back to 5th for my raven guard meant that certain units that cycled in like centurions and scouts and stuff made me have a very strong list for 8th (where they were very broken in the 8.5). But when the 9th codex dropped, it was very obvious to me that the faction was weaker, despite my friends claiming they got even better. These guys are basically an eldar/de main and a chaos/ork primary player. I kept on telling them the stats on tournament wins and all that, but it was always "marines op".

 

....Up until we started playing on TTS and I tested out sororitas as I'm super slowly painting my force. And all of a sudden, marines aren't the most hated faction any more lol.

[techsoldaten]

Expectations need to be firmly grounded in reality.

 

There's not enough data to judge the strength of Marines based on recent tournament rankings. Lots of people are not participating in tournaments due to lockdowns, not many people are getting in practice games against strong players.

 

This means the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions.

[SkimaskMohawk]

Like, not really? There's 12 GTs recorded on 40k stats.com since the book dropped, and you can look into best coast pairings and stuff to find many, many more. Which is what goonhammer does to help compile their stats. And the majority of marines landed in tier 2, with only scars making it into the vaunted tier 1, but underneath Harlequins, daemons and sororitas. Add TTS to the mix and the lockdown with not enough data argument falls apart.

 

This doesn't quite apply to SW, DW, BA and DA though, since they got a full 9th book with corresponding changes and it can take a while to get away from an old play style or build and find a more effective one.

[BLACK BLΠFLY]

Goonhammer tier changes so much from month to month. I’m not saying it’s inconsequential but I take with a measure of salt.

[SkimaskMohawk]

Goonhammer tier changes so much from month to month. I’m not saying it’s inconsequential but I take with a measure of salt.

Sure, but that's also because the meta evolves with new releases and new lists that are made to take advantage of the current state of things. They update their take as stuff changes, based on tournament data.

[techsoldaten]

Like, not really? There's 12 GTs recorded on 40k stats.com since the book dropped, and you can look into best coast pairings and stuff to find many, many more. Which is what goonhammer does to help compile their stats. And the majority of marines landed in tier 2, with only scars making it into the vaunted tier 1, but underneath Harlequins, daemons and sororitas. Add TTS to the mix and the lockdown with not enough data argument falls apart.

 

This doesn't quite apply to SW, DW, BA and DA though, since they got a full 9th book with corresponding changes and it can take a while to get away from an old play style or build and find a more effective one.

 

Like, really. Dude. The number of tournaments isn't as important as who can play the game. 

 

On the one hand, there are some very gifted players who are not participating. At best, there's a slice of talent coming out for them. You're really just saying this small batch of competitive players isn't doing as well with Marines as were in 8th edition. With a larger competitive base, that could change for the better or the worse (or not at all.)

 

On the other hand, how many people actually participated in those tournaments? My local meta is competitive and people are constantly testing lists. We also happen to be on 100% lockdown, nobody's playing games against large numbers of people. That means lists aren't being tested and new insights aren't being gained. You're not seeing the best people are capable of.

 

Getting caught up on the label 'tournament' is a mistake. The outcomes of these events means a lot less than they would if everyone was free to participate. I'm not sure it's safe to draw many conclusions about Codex strength from the results.

[Prot]

I think there is enough info out to make that call. Even if I just use my local meta, there is enough information for me. That's just me. I don't expect anyone to agree with me.

 

BUT I say this knowing that Marines are largely done. As new codexes come out, we will fade a bit lower on the competitive ranking and I'm okay with that. I never played Ultra's for all these years because they were 'the best'. Never.

 

On a side note: I do like how they were gracious in the games. Sure it was a charity, but I would like to think some people can still play like this. 

 

Prot I agree it was good sportsmanship and I viewed the nopen as more of an exhibition for charity rather than tournament. In a real one I'd expect my opponent to remember that kind of stuff and also not expect concessions going my way.

 

 

Sure, I would not have -expected- that concession but I would have given that opportunity to my opponent. 

 

In fact you remind me of my last (pre covid) tournament. A World Eater player tried to make a very weird assault on my marines (long story). I tried to tell him how he could make it work, and it made for a very makeable charge distance. (If I recall, he needed a 6 or 7" charge).

 

He failed. My turn starts, and I just started moving stuff and he says, 'Wait! I forgot I could have CP re-rolled that charge. Do you mind?" I said sure, I haven't moved any models in that area of the table yet.

 

He re-rolled, failed the charge. And got really hot, and said, "Thanks! Thanks a lot, you must made me waste a CP for nothing!"

 

I remember thinking.... wow, talk about being punished for having good intentions. lol

 

This really happened, and a few people had come to our table to watch the game. I still remember one guy turning to me and rolling his eyes, and telling me I never should have let him reroll. 

 

The game is so complicated. In the heat of a tournament (especially) we all forget the most basic stuff. I never have a problem letting someone do something they clearly forgot, or intended, if it isn't something that changes the outcome of actions that have happened since that moment, I'm more than okay with it.

 

And that's one thing I think that Nopen tournament showed us; you can be extremely competitive, and still be a 'good guy'.  Some of those Nopen players are top ranked (by ITC standards) on the planet. I think it sets a good example. Ours is a social game. I've spent years defending both sides of that coin.  (The 'fluffy' player and the 'competitive' player)

 

Marines were well represented, they just didn't do very well. If I were a Grey Knight player, I'd almost be worried!

Edited February 5, 2021 by Prot

[emperorpants]

I think there is enough info out to make that call. Even if I just use my local meta, there is enough information for me. That's just me. I don't expect anyone to agree with me.

 

BUT I say this knowing that Marines are largely done. As new codexes come out, we will fade a bit lower on the competitive ranking and I'm okay with that. I never played Ultra's for all these years because they were 'the best'. Never.

 

On a side note: I do like how they were gracious in the games. Sure it was a charity, but I would like to think some people can still play like this. 

 

 

Prot I agree it was good sportsmanship and I viewed the nopen as more of an exhibition for charity rather than tournament. In a real one I'd expect my opponent to remember that kind of stuff and also not expect concessions going my way.

 

 

 

Sure, I would not have -expected- that concession but I would have given that opportunity to my opponent. 

 

In fact you remind me of my last (pre covid) tournament. A World Eater player tried to make a very weird assault on my marines (long story). I tried to tell him how he could make it work, and it made for a very makeable charge distance. (If I recall, he needed a 6 or 7" charge).

 

He failed. My turn starts, and I just started moving stuff and he says, 'Wait! I forgot I could have CP re-rolled that charge. Do you mind?" I said sure, I haven't moved any models in that area of the table yet.

 

He re-rolled, failed the charge. And got really hot, and said, "Thanks! Thanks a lot, you must made me waste a CP for nothing!"

 

I remember thinking.... wow, talk about being punished for having good intentions. lol

 

This really happened, and a few people had come to our table to watch the game. I still remember one guy turning to me and rolling his eyes, and telling me I never should have let him reroll. 

 

The game is so complicated. In the heat of a tournament (especially) we all forget the most basic stuff. I never have a problem letting someone do something they clearly forgot, or intended, if it isn't something that changes the outcome of actions that have happened since that moment, I'm more than okay with it.

 

And that's one thing I think that Nopen tournament showed us; you can be extremely competitive, and still be a 'good guy'.  Some of those Nopen players are top ranked (by ITC standards) on the planet. I think it sets a good example. Ours is a social game. I've spent years defending both sides of that coin.  (The 'fluffy' player and the 'competitive' player)

 

Marines were well represented, they just didn't do very well. If I were a Grey Knight player, I'd almost be worried! ;)

Prot, you and I play the same way. I always play that way too, even in competitive games and tourneys. Much respect. :)

[Alcyon]

I have always found that the higher I get in competitive games the more sportsmanship I see. It's the mid to low-tier players who tend to have questionable sportsmanship for the most part. I'm glad the players in this event were good role models and I'd expect nothing less from pros. 

[SkimaskMohawk]

@prot yea I totally agree.

 

@techsoldaten you're kind of making a lot of assertions and moving the goal posts. You claim there's not enough tournament data, when theres tons of tournaments. You say a lot of strong players aren't playing, but the Nopen just took place in person and TTS exists; strong players are playing. What amount of data is enough? How many "strong players" need to be playing to say that marine pilots are good enough to count? Why does TTS not count? Why do we need to discard any results from places that have covid under control and life is pretty normal?

 

goonhammer just posted an article today about the current meta, and has white scars as 7th with their new algorithm. Idk if you feel like their sample size of 4000 games in January is representational or not, but it's the most comprehensive data parsing we have.

[BLACK BLΠFLY]

I really don’t think there is enough valid data but we has a general idea. SM had dropped to gate keeper status now mostly oh well but we all know those haters they will keep hating !

 

I have seen shifty behavior at top tables... usually happens towards end game when one player is getting desperate. Sad.

[techsoldaten]

@prot yea I totally agree.

 

@techsoldaten you're kind of making a lot of assertions and moving the goal posts. You claim there's not enough tournament data, when theres tons of tournaments. You say a lot of strong players aren't playing, but the Nopen just took place in person and TTS exists; strong players are playing. What amount of data is enough? How many "strong players" need to be playing to say that marine pilots are good enough to count? Why does TTS not count? Why do we need to discard any results from places that have covid under control and life is pretty normal?

 

goonhammer just posted an article today about the current meta, and has white scars as 7th with their new algorithm. Idk if you feel like their sample size of 4000 games in January is representational or not, but it's the most comprehensive data parsing we have.

 

I'm not moving any goalposts. There's a small subset of competitive players facing each other in something called tournaments.

 

These events are not the same as open events where everyone can face each other.

 

The results mean very little. The differentiation point is not quantitative, it's characteristic. Either you are playing against the best other players have to throw against you or you are not. 

 

If you are determined to draw conclusions from the results of a small subset - which I estimate to be lower than 10% of the regular tournament crowd - go ahead. Means nothing, you're just making noise.

[Vermintide]

Latest Goonhammer meta-analysis shows Space Marines are about as comfortably middle of the road as they have ever been.

 

 

https://www.goonhammer.com/the-february-2021-40k-meta-review/

 

Will this silence people who insist Space Marines are broken and killing 40k? Well, I suspect we all know the answer to that. But at least we can say with some measure of objectivity that no, they're really not. Anyone who continues to insist it is the case is likely an unfortunate player running an underpowered army, or else simply isn't very good at toy soldiers.

[SkimaskMohawk]

 

 

@prot yea I totally agree.

 

@techsoldaten you're kind of making a lot of assertions and moving the goal posts. You claim there's not enough tournament data, when theres tons of tournaments. You say a lot of strong players aren't playing, but the Nopen just took place in person and TTS exists; strong players are playing. What amount of data is enough? How many "strong players" need to be playing to say that marine pilots are good enough to count? Why does TTS not count? Why do we need to discard any results from places that have covid under control and life is pretty normal?

 

goonhammer just posted an article today about the current meta, and has white scars as 7th with their new algorithm. Idk if you feel like their sample size of 4000 games in January is representational or not, but it's the most comprehensive data parsing we have.

I'm not moving any goalposts. There's a small subset of competitive players facing each other in something called tournaments.

 

These events are not the same as open events where everyone can face each other.

 

The results mean very little. The differentiation point is not quantitative, it's characteristic. Either you are playing against the best other players have to throw against you or you are not.

 

If you are determined to draw conclusions from the results of a small subset - which I estimate to be lower than 10% of the regular tournament crowd - go ahead. Means nothing, you're just making noise.

Ignores that tts is a thing for the millionith time and can't state what metrics he would deem acceptable for data, also for the millionith time.

[Malakithe]

I think all the bigger heavier SM vehicles are in a bad spot points wise. None get core without special circumstances which hurts. And most are way over priced for what they bring. ATVs, Storm Speeders, and Dreds, are were its at now. Massed infantry might be the way to go too. 

[Jorin Helm-splitter]

Goonhammer tier changes so much from month to month. I’m not saying it’s inconsequential but I take with a measure of salt.

 

I think they create some confusion because they have tier list, and meta reviews articles. The tier list has a fair amount assumptions in it. Which with 40k is valid IMO, because the average player doesn't have every unit, and needs to time to build and paint what ever they add with a new codex or in response to a new codex. The meta reviews are more of a snap shot current results, which provide a lot of value for the more established armies but not as much for the newest ones. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Jorin Helm-splitter

[Prot]

Right, well the back and forth.... all I can say is please be respectful of each other. 

 

I'm fine with the data set out there, and my own experiences. Plus Australia had their own version of "LVO" just happen and I watched that as closely as I could. 

 

At the end of the day, if you personally feel there isn't enough data out there you have to ask yourself: If the top.... 500 players in the world got together and played no holds barred 40K, do you think Marines would do better than they currently are?

 

For me; no way. Maybe a spot higher, or even lower, but it would be Daemons, SoB, Harlies, most likely leading that charge. 

 

That whole argument really isn't even the crux of the matter for me. The -potential- issue to me is the power creep in 9th is starting to look markedly increased in this edition compared to 8th.

 

For the sake of the argument, let's just take the top of the meta at this current time line. Most of them haven't had a codex yet. Looking at Death Guard and Dark Angels, this could be a real trend setter for 9th.

 

Marines got a codex towards the end of 8th for no real reason, and it put a fairly -medium- powered codex over the top; Iron Hands, Chappy Dreads, Leviathans basically all set the tone for the un-killable army of 8th. So it made sense that 9th started with a turn down of the marine codex. 

 

The rest of the armies? I assume they have to go up. I mean some of the lower armies are absolutely horrible and need immense help. 

[Jorin Helm-splitter]

@Prot

 

I agree with your points for the most part but I think marines would drop at least a couple of slots on the tier list (deathguard, crons, and custodes are all really good). That said if you had a large tournament with the best players I still think marines would be over represented, and because of that you would see a decent amount of them get in the top 16. So I don't think the perception of the fractions strength would change much because people would use those placements to defend their beliefs regardless of what the overall results of all the games suggest.

 

My concern with 9th, comes down to the current meta leaders. They're all armies with great assault options, which makes sense with the emphasis on taking midfield objectives. So how does GW make the shooting based armies like IG & tau able to compete? I'm less worried about power creep than I am about some fractions just not having the tools to succeed with these missions, and its frustrating because armies like Tau and Guard should be able to go in the midfield and be effective.

[SkimaskMohawk]

@jorin a few metawatch articles ago the 40kstats guys claimed marines are actually under represented in tournaments compared to the faction amounts. 33% of factions are marines, with 31% of. Still a lot of marine armies, but the majority of opponents weren't marines.