GW's business model - the future and 3D printing

[Captain Idaho]

I didn't start bringing the analogies in deliberately because I didn't want them to overshadow the other points, but I think they support the idea that technology can heavily affect an industry.

 

CDs still exist sure but the money coming in is much less from their sales than digital downloads. Services others can do for you is always prized.

 

So where does GW sit amongst these? They're an expensive luxury item and if you tell someone they can print off an army for less than £30 or spend GW's prices (often considered overpriced by more and more people, but that's a different subject) and spend hundreds, which do you really think people will generally flock towards?

[Special Officer Doofy]

Even the CD's is not a good analogy. It's still a digital item (like a movie), it's just the medium it gets delivered on. Plastic toy soldiers are not digital. They are an actual tangible object unlike movies, music and video games.

 

I would never argue against 3D printing from the customer standpoint, sorry if I made it seem that way. I meant from GW's standpoint. Unless they make more revenue from something they won't make that decision. Codexes coming out closer together at the beginning of an edition would be far healthier for the game and balance and would make costumers happy, but they would make less money so they won't do it. All I meant was I see them making less money selling printing files than selling plastic so they won't do it. They are also very protective of their IP and selling printing files seems to go against their current way of thinking.

 

Sorry if I seem arguementative, was trying to take a moderate approach, I don't see 3D printing hurting or helping GW that much is all.

[Captain Idaho]

You're probably right they won't make as much money selling STL files and it seems like something they wouldn't want to do. But what can they do is the question? They may be forced.

[Special Officer Doofy]

All true. Time will tell!

[Grotsmasha]

The question is, does GW stand to lose anything from selling files for models they no longer sell / support.

For example, what if they were to sell a digital bundle of the Blackstone Fortress expansions, complete with STL files? They're NEVER going to physically restock them, but I'd pay a pretty penny for access.

One big potential opportunity here is supplemental income to their existing business model

[Kastor Krieg]

3D printing has already disrupted several markets. For example - gun parts. I keep hearing from my US friends that one had lost some kind of rare AK sling hinge, just printed a new one. But that's not for purchase out there, right? 

They're saying though that they and their friends completely stopped buying many gun accessories they would have previously paid hundreds and thousands of dollars for. They need a specific flashlight mount for Picantinny rail? Just print it. They need a muzzle break? Just print it. They want to experiment with a different shape of the muzzle break for better recoil control or flash hiding, which would be an expensive custom job? Adjust and print a new one. They want new custom pistol grips? Just print'em. They want a new rifle stock variant with some hidden storage chamber? Yeah, print that, bang.

So many purchases gone, such a large part of market that keeps drying up. Of course there's a majority still who do not have a printer, skill, time, patience and will buy ready made. But they can also buy from the 3d printer guy who will do a custom job on the fly.

I expect the exact same thing with miniatures, further down the road. Not a doom scenario, but need to adjust.

[Dark Shepherd]

Breadmakers.

Thats the analogy for home 3D printers.

Breadmakers.

 

Or possibly homebrowing, or growing "herbs"

[Arkaniss]

I think people are getting way too caught up in nice, tidy analogies here. Yes they are helpful to demonstrate a point you are trying to make but attempting to pick an existing example and copy it whole into a 3D printing analogy is a pointless exercise. This is new territory and it's simply not possible to know how it's going to shake out - which is why we're here discussing it, right?

 

Now I've seen a few posts about GW themselves setting up 3D printers in-shop and I think this is a great idea worth more discussion. Captain Idaho mentioned the front facing stores being important and that's a big deal, I can't imagine a GW without any stores? Perhaps GW offering their own printing is a potential part of the solution? Especially if they offer up some kind of bitz service again. They could print you that unique helmet you lost and all sorts of goodies.

 

This isn't a hole in one to solve the 3D printing conundrum, though it is an interesting angle to explore. It is perhaps a part of the goal of embracing 3D printing while still selling their plastic models themselves. Pop into your local GW for those 3D printed bitz you ordered online and that OOP unit from 2nd Edition you also wanted... and hey, why you're there why not buy the new shiney box GW have just released?

[RWJP]

On the note of this discussion, Kirioth gave a perfect example on Twitter today of why 3D printing still hasn't overtaken GW, and why it probably won't for quite some time: https://twitter.com/Kirioth/status/1444304210158313480

It also demonstrates why GW would never have 3D printers in their own stores in my opinion.

Kirioth is a relatively experienced hobbyist who has been using 3D printers for a while for a variety of things. He successfully managed to ruin two prints today due to a combination of issues with the file to be printed (supports weren't set up properly) and getting distracted causing one printer to run out of resin.

If a relatively experienced hobbyist with prior experience of 3D printers can still screw things up like that, it means that 3D printers are not ready for the regular consumer yet. 3D printing is still a hobby in it's own right. Until 3D printers are truly plug and play, they will not be ready for the masses.

Also, can you imagine how many failed prints you'd get in GW stores? As most GW stores are single-staffed, even one momentary lapse of concentration/one long conversation with a customer etc could lead to multiple failed prints. GW also won't want their stores full of potentially hazardous chemicals (and neither will their landlords) and I can imagine they're not to keen on the added electricity costs of running multiple printers in every store 24/7.

Edited October 2, 2021 by RWJP

[Captain Idaho]

Yes but this early days now. 3D printing will get easier to do as time goes.

 

Here's another thought - there's very possibly going to be a local store opening up in towns and cities where someone acts as a Printers for public for fees. You go in, have an expert on hand to print for you and you're away.

 

And due to the way piracy would work and be enforced, it would be impossible to stop most of the time and people can make their own versions of things freely already anyway.

[XeonDragon]

The question is, does GW stand to lose anything from selling files for models they no longer sell / support.

For example, what if they were to sell a digital bundle of the Blackstone Fortress expansions, complete with STL files? They're NEVER going to physically restock them, but I'd pay a pretty penny for access.

One big potential opportunity here is supplemental income to their existing business model

 

EXACTLY. GW could make a mint selling OOP kit STL files. They could make even more of a mind 3D-printing in-store OOP kits and parts. Need some thunder hammers? Click, print and collect from your GW store. Need a Lias Issodon? Get it made on demand. 

[Bryan Blaire]

Why would GW prefer to have you print some Thunder Hammers in an in-store printer when they can instead say “If you need some extra Thunder Hammers, here’s any of the five kits you can buy to get them” in store?  The former is basically a sales loss for them over the latter, as they see it.

 

Sure, you might say “Well, but I can instead walk out of the store and print off some Thunder Hammers for my own use and GW doesn’t get a sale at all!” - this is true, but GW would also say “Yes, and now you can’t use those models in our stores, Warhammer World, Warhammer Cafes, or at any of our official tournaments/other venues.”

 

I could see some of this for ForgeWorld models as a print-on-demand service (since it isn’t universal that GW stores let you play with FW stuff in them anyway from what I’ve seen in the U.S.), that would effectively save them from needing to cast the resin at all, cuts their warehouse costs to zero, etc., but for basic things, I definitely don’t see GW thinking that a print-on-demand for something they sell in a plastic kit already is a win for them, if it undercuts a kit sale instead.

[XeonDragon]

Yes, those are good points. In my view, there is a substantial risk that eventually 3D printing will simply result in GW not selling those kits, stores being unable to determine if the parts are real or not and, even if they can, a substantial proportion of the client base not worrying about being 'banned' from using those models in particular stores or tournaments. 

 

I think that selling on-demand 3D printed OOP (rather than current) models and bits will eventually result gaining revenue from someone who needs 5 thunder hammers compared to losing sales altogether from someone who needs 5 thunder hammers but won't/can't afford to buy a full kit to get the bits when they want. 

 

We live in interesting times :)

[Arkhanist]

On the note of this discussion, Kirioth gave a perfect example on Twitter today of why 3D printing still hasn't overtaken GW, and why it probably won't for quite some time: https://twitter.com/Kirioth/status/1444304210158313480

 

It also demonstrates why GW would never have 3D printers in their own stores in my opinion.

 

Kirioth is a relatively experienced hobbyist who has been using 3D printers for a while for a variety of things. He successfully managed to ruin two prints today due to a combination of issues with the file to be printed (supports weren't set up properly) and getting distracted causing one printer to run out of resin.

 

If a relatively experienced hobbyist with prior experience of 3D printers can still screw things up like that, it means that 3D printers are not ready for the regular consumer yet. 3D printing is still a hobby in it's own right. Until 3D printers are truly plug and play, they will not be ready for the masses.

 

Also, can you imagine how many failed prints you'd get in GW stores? As most GW stores are single-staffed, even one momentary lapse of concentration/one long conversation with a customer etc could lead to multiple failed prints. GW also won't want their stores full of potentially hazardous chemicals (and neither will their landlords) and I can imagine they're not to keen on the added electricity costs of running multiple printers in every store 24/7.

Doing your own supports well is a skill, definitely. Auto support in the slicer can get you most of the way there, and if you just chuck larger amounts of supports at it, it works every time, but then you've potentially got some more cleanup. So the main reason supports is 'hard' is that we want to minimise the amount of waste. Given most of the time you're using pre-made STLs, you can often get pre-supported ones too; and the bigger patreon designers all have excellent supports so it is just a case of add to slicer -> print -> peel off with no impact on the model.

 

So iy you're printing paid-for STLs, it's largely a solved problem. Now, if you're like me and like to digitally kitbash, then yeah, you need to learn to do your own supports, which largely consists of doing higher density light auto supports in lychee, then adding some medium or heavy ones to the base of the feet to support the main weight; takes me 10 mins a mini, tops, and hardly ever fails. And even it does, the cost of printing a single mini is so small (or part of a larger one), that the only significant cost is lost time. And since I'm using eco resin (soybean oil) the waste will biodegrade when composted.

 

With regards running out of resin mid-print; again, mainly an issue with small hobby printers. There's no real reason to try and minimise the resin in the tray, so I just top it up when it drops to halfway (enough to do at least 3 normal full plates); if I'm going to leave it alone for a week or more then the excess resin just gets poured back in the bottle and I clean the tray. Commercial grade printers aren't trying to cut cost to the bone, so you get bigger trays, or a different method entirely.

 

But yes, 3d printing is a small hobby in itself, just like airbrushing in a sense; airbrushing hasn't got drastically cheaper, but a lot more people do it now they've realised it's not so scary as they thought. Print-at-home has a looooong way to go before I'd expect the average man-in-street to have and use it; but then I wouldn't hand them my airbrush either. I think as 3d printing tech advances, getting cheaper and better rapidly as it has the last few years, buying pre-printed models or bits *will* get a lot more accessible even if you never own one yourself. Shapeways right now shows the flexibility of 3d printing, but the price makes GW seem affordable!

 

 

Breadmakers.

Thats the analogy for home 3D printers.

Breadmakers.

 

Or possibly homebrowing, or growing "herbs"

Owning both a breadmaker and a resin 3d printer, that's not actually a terrible comparison. It's be closer if bread from the supermarket cost £20 a loaf and was only sold in one chain, and if they run out of stock you just don't get to buy bread until it's back in. At which point, a breadmaker would seem a lot more attractive! (ours is mainly used for pizza dough, mediterranean style)

 

I just finished printing 20 customised Valor Korps for my veteran guard 2.0 kill team. Total cost of about £2 of resin according to my slicer. The alternative was to wait until the official krieg box gets released eventually and buy two and see what I can kitbash (you want at least 14 guys, plus special weapon options); I'm also guessing they're going to be a touch more than 10p a mini.

Edited October 3, 2021 by Arkhanist

[roryokane]

The question is, does GW stand to lose anything from selling files for models they no longer sell / support.

For example, what if they were to sell a digital bundle of the Blackstone Fortress expansions, complete with STL files? They're NEVER going to physically restock them, but I'd pay a pretty penny for access.

One big potential opportunity here is supplemental income to their existing business model

It's *this*. It's the OOP stuff that I just don't get why they don't get in on the ground floor of. They're literally choosing to not make money where they could.

During lockdown I basically had a bit of a run of... let's say, mild mania  - and a desire to get myself as many different space marine miniatures as possible that could conceivably be used in an Ultramarines' army - lockdown meant I had nothing else to do - and I have spend *WAY* too much money on eBay buying OOP things like Mk IV dreadnoughts or older metal librarian models (not usually including Rogue Trader stuff as they're just a bit too janky, with some exceptions like the older predator and land speeder models).

GW missed out on all that money - though TBF they'd probably not print them for as much, but they made zilch out of it. I now have more warhammer than I can realistically ever hope to actually assemble (we're talking dozens of tanks and hundreds of marines), but hey ho. GW made very little money out of me (still bought the odd product like Uriel ventris and the new ultramarines praetors, for example), and they could have. As it stands, other hobbyists have pocketed my cash, and GW has missed out (not begrudging those selling those miniatures - I found an AMAZINGLY painted Ultramarine venerable dreadnought - the one with the dead Tyranid on the banner - but still, the point stands). GW have the option of literally selling OOP Bitz and they could literally just have an online catalogue and either print them centrally or have the printers in their larger stores. Either would, with relatively small start-up costs, ensure GW get their toes in the water and keep hobbyists happy too!

Edited October 3, 2021 by roryokane

[RWJP]

 

It's *this*. It's the OOP stuff that I just don't get why they don't get in on the ground floor of. They're literally choosing to not make money where they could.

 

I would imagine most of GW's OOP stuff isn't digital, (especially the Forgeworld products), so making them available again would involve having them resculpted in a digital format/digitally scanned and then checked over.

 

If GW are going to spend the money, time and effort to do that, why wouldn't they then just sell the model themselves at their own pricing, rather than an STL?

[Captain Idaho]

Here's an odd angle I thought of reading the posts here...

 

GW have moved away from modular kits for their main lines (40K and AoS) and have concentrated on great looking but ultimately monopose models that can't be kitbashed or converted easily. Any 3D printing bits service they might provide would be out of date in that regard, though models is still a viable option.

 

So in that futuristic scenario, we might have GW embracing their old celebrated modular designs and bringing them back for download.

 

After all, the reason they've moved away from the modular kits we all loved is because of copyright protection (as well as the name changes) but this has only stopped the 3rd party companies like Chapter House and not the 3D printing explosion. It's also very unlikely it'll be able to stop people around the world doing their printing even if government legislation states companies have ownership over derivative files (as how do you prove it or stop the Internet?).

 

As has been said here, folk are keen on ease and if they can pay cheaply for an official product directly from source they often don't bother with pirating the same.

[RWJP]

Yes but this early days now. 3D printing will get easier to do as time goes.

That's the thing though, we've got some people in this thread saying that 3D printing is a mature technology and GW should be afraid of it and need to start adjusting their business strategy to compensate, and then we've got people saying that "it's early days". 

 

Which is it?

 

Here's another thought - there's very possibly going to be a local store opening up in towns and cities where someone acts as a Printers for public for fees. You go in, have an expert on hand to print for you and you're away.

I'll be honest with you, I can't see how the logistics of that would work, nor can I see the appeal of it.

 

Lets say theoretically a customer comes in as soon as the doors open, and orders a print that needs to be spread across multiple printers. That then occupies those printers for a large chunk of the day. Unless you charge an exorbitant amount, how are you going to make up the losses for the customers who come in and have to be turned away because all the printers are in use?

 

Also, what could this theoretical store offer that would make a person want to travel into their town centre multiple times, once to request the print and once to pick it up? Why wouldn't they just buy an equivalent product online from the comfort of their own home and have it delivered? And don't say "Well you could have the store print it and ship it to you"... If that's the case, then why not just have a factory, rather than a retail store?

[Captain Idaho]

Well it's dependent on technology improving (speed) for how economically viable it is (cookie for the reference) to have a store that deals in just 3D printing for folk. Or how cheap printers may become and what they can print.

 

Sure it may very well not be feasible for stores to 3D print. If that's the case then that's how it is. But it sure will be (as already is) easy for folk to 3D print at home, plus it'll only get easier.

 

I'm very interested in just what materials folk can print stuff in. I'm not a Techmarine, at best a Marine with a big axe, so I have no idea outside plastic and resin. Reading people in this thread talking about using 3D printers for shooting paraphernalia is intriguing however.

 

As for people saying it's a mature technology and still early days... Well it's a matter of context and who is saying it in said context.

 

It works great. The technology is amazing, I've got the prints to prove it. It's also early days and will only get better, cheaper, quicker, more efficient...

 

There's no discrepancies there.

[ThePenitentOne]

In my city, there is a Maker Space that charges a monthly fee for access to tools and workshop space. They have 3d printers, CNC machines, and a whole sweet of powertools/ etc. 24 hour access via security cards.

 

They branched out and created a shared digital studio as well. The core members of both teams also run regular workshops on how to use the tech.

 

Haven't checked in on either of these businesses for a while, so I'm not sure they're still up and running. I hope so; I always loved the concept, and I flirted with membership more than once.

[Grotsmasha]

Well it's dependent on technology improving (speed) for how economically viable it is (cookie for the reference) to have a store that deals in just 3D printing for folk. Or how cheap printers may become and what they can print.

 

Sure it may very well not be feasible for stores to 3D print. If that's the case then that's how it is. But it sure will be (as already is) easy for folk to 3D print at home, plus it'll only get easier.

 

I'm very interested in just what materials folk can print stuff in. I'm not a Techmarine, at best a Marine with a big axe, so I have no idea outside plastic and resin. Reading people in this thread talking about using 3D printers for shooting paraphernalia is intriguing however.

 

As for people saying it's a mature technology and still early days... Well it's a matter of context and who is saying it in said context.

 

It works great. The technology is amazing, I've got the prints to prove it. It's also early days and will only get better, cheaper, quicker, more efficient...

 

There's no discrepancies there.

 

There are restaurants that print Beef, manufactures who print in metal and wood. The Australian Military have a 3D printer the size of a trailer for printing vehicle replacements in the field, they've 3D printed a concrete house in Germany (IIRC), and a boat (I forget where).

 

Extreme examples yes, cool as hell? Also yes

[Arkaniss]

I don't recall anyone claiming that 3D printing is a mature technology anywhere in this thread? I mean I'm not reading through it all to double check but the general consensus I've taken from posts is in fact quite the opposite. Most people comment on how new it is and how it's early days!

 

To reiterate that: 3D printing as an industry is still in it's infancy. Well, maybe a toddler now? Anyway, yes there are example of big 3D printers (as Grotsmasha points out) but a large printer is just that - a large printer and not a commentary on the state of 3D printing as a whole. There is a lot more to come and I expect a lot more growing pains. There will be some branches of the 3D printing tree that wither and die but the tree itself will keep growing.

 

There has been musings on GW having their own 3D printers and even dedicated 3D printing shops - and arguments against and why it might not work. This is good! I believe that's what this thread is for? Debates on the pros and cons of potential possibilities? ThePenitentOne has made a wonderful contribution here - there is (or perhaps was) the sort of business some in this thread have pondered on right now (or then?)!

 

Maybe it's not there any more (so a branch that withered in my nice, tidy tree analogy) but that doesn't mean the idea isn't sound. Maybe it's just not the right timing (covid doesn't help I expect) and they were ahead of their time. Let's use this to spur some more conversation:

 

Let's say businesses like this do pop up and do succeed and GW moves to house it's own 3D printers. How do GW compete? Maybe you can print your not-Space Marines a couple of doors down from your local GW for a fraction of the price for the official 3D printed models from GW? We come back to the design of feel of 40K itself here - how many people want the real deal and how many are happy with their 3rd party versions?

 

It's been mentioned by several people already and I'm starting to feel more and more that brand loyalty to GW is going to be key in this battle ground of the far future. The more GW does to cultivate this and keep it the better they'll cope with any bumps along the road.

[Bryan Blaire]

It's been mentioned by several people already and I'm starting to feel more and more that brand loyalty to GW is going to be key in this battle ground of the far future. The more GW does to cultivate this and keep it the better they'll cope with any bumps along the road.

Honestly, I think brand loyalty is going to be the only factor as to why you’d continue to buy from GW if 3D printing really does gain absolute parity with or becomes better than plastic injection molded figures and is somehow something that any gamer of any kind can do - in that instance I think that Captain Idaho’s idea that GW basically becomes a rules supplier, IP manager, and maybe only one source of model components becomes reality.

 

The problem there is that I am not sure that the rules justify that brand loyalty at this point, and there are also plenty of people that want to see rules for free from GW (or at least basic game rules), or minimal costs - so in that instance, how does GW actually go about making money necessary to keep themselves in business?

 

If they are selling an STL for a model for pence over pounds that they sell them for now, how do they keep amazing model developers employed to keep making the models that we all enjoy?

 

Also, the “officialness” of elements of the game has always seemed like a really big deal with at least a segment of the community - how do you deal with that when things become much more nebulous out there, possibly due to rules being distributed differently and models being more print-on-demand?

 

I think the answers to these questions as we see GW develop them and also how the community develops will determine if GW actually adapts, and the community will have to come up with some of its own answers afterward if GW doesn’t adapt.

 

One thing I’ve always felt was lacking in GW’s actual model production that is supposed to be the case from what has been lore for a while is that different Forge Worlds produce slightly different styles of the same items - what a plasma gun or rad-carbine looks like on one Forge World shouldn’t necessarily be identical to one from a different Forge World.  Even things produced from STCs can suffer from this, and be manufactured from different materials.

 

We’ve never seen this though (likely due to needing brand recognition and possibly even some of the legal stuff surrounding “How do you identify your products by style for trademark purposes”, etc.), but maybe we could if 3D printing all components were to become the name of the game - maybe at home model developers/designers could get some kind of license to make and sell their 40K designs after an IP review - albeit probably at “wages” that make it a hobby just to do that?

 

One thing I know for sure - I don’t have the business acumen to work all this out, and won’t pretend that I do - that’s why CEOs have huge teams that work for them to develop plans guiding businesses along new lines/developments.

[Marshal Reinhard]

There are restaurants that print Beef,

Do they print customers too eat it too?  

 

Rest of the examples are cool though

[Arkhanist]

WRT to brand loyalty, it is true that some models are more protected than others. The more modern designs from GW are either unique enough, or GW is at least prepared to defend them, to make 3rd party models not direct substitutes.

 

Imperial guard analogs that are based on historical armies are widely available, including ones that GW don't do such as traitor guard or feudal guard, as are any number of 'dark elves in space'. GW goes after anything that looks vaguely like a space marine pretty hard, so while various bits exist, like weapons or custom chapter pads, (and are legal), even vaguely similar full minis are generally taken down fast with DMCA notices. For things like 'nids, eldar or ad mech, they do exist but rather different - cyborg nids, dark mechanicum etc. Chaos stuff is probably the closest in style to GW, because you can do a lot with tentacles and spikes that doesn't match an existing mini.

 

But if you want the official GW 'look' for many minis, then your main choices are GW plastic, or dodgy stl's circulating on discord etc, which are not easy to find. For fantasy, again things like stormcast analogs effectively don't exist, but standard fantasy trope armies are widespread.

 

So currently, it depends if GW's exact minis are what you're after, or something 'close enough'.  And I can't see GW giving that up by selling official STLs, unless they can make it cheap enough that piracy isn't attractive. GW & cheap - that also undercuts their plastic sales - doesn't seem like it's something they would consider. And 3rd party models are already banned, as are 3d printed bits from GW stores, and now their tournaments.

 

I don't think we can divorce the potential threat 3d printing poses to GW from pricing. As their prices continue to climb, 3d printing alternatives that are high quality but not GW 'brand' (akin to anvil industry, creature caster, or artel W), whether cast resin, printed-on-demand, or at home, ever cheaper than current prices, also gets much more attractive. Victoria minis has already started offering 3d printed versions of some lines, and anvil have an STL patreon, and there's various patreon printers on ebay. So rapidly improving 3d printing will likely make many 3rd party models cheaper even if you don't have a printer yourself, and make available models that weren't worth setting up a resin casting business for.

 

Maybe GW'll end up going the rolex route; limited releases, super-high prices solely for the luxury market, and leave the mass market to others. Or maybe they cut prices to compete with 'close enough' 3rd party models.

 

Or maybe they're just that much more popular now than they last time they priced their customers out, and far cheaper competitors won't cause them problems this time.

 

But I don't think GW is going to embrace 3d printing of their designs any time soon; it undermines their defence of their plastic business way too much, where they do have a genuine advantage in quality over pretty much every direct plastic competitor.