GW's business model - the future and 3D printing

[Grotsmasha]

Also, it should be mentioned, that it is actual IP/Copyright theft, as it's illegaly replicating a model that is current on sale. I don't feel that we should be supporting illegal infringement like this. Even if we point a finger at GW and accuse them of being greedy, it's more or equally greedy and unjustifiable to outright steal their IP.

 

Fundamentally, I agree with this. However, when a company stands no chance of making that money from me, I am more flexible. In this instance I came across the file, thought this would look cool on my shelf (haven't gamed since 2nd, don't intend on starting again) and downloaded it. I will never, and would never have paid the $500AUD to have bought a legit model from FW. I also won't PAY for IP infringing work, but have no problem paying for files for things that GW don't produce, that is their IP, such as the afore mentioned Primarch Bust stls.

 

Back when the Xbox 360 was new my house mate modded them, and one of the first "burnt" games we tried was Gears of War (which was months from being released in Oz), I loved that game so much I bought the Collectors Ed. for 1, 2, and 3 on day 1.

[Grotsmasha]

Coming back to the not-so-plug-n-playness of 3D printers at the moment being a significant entry barrier, in 5-10 years, slicing software will evolve as fast as the printers themselves. I think it's reasonable to expect that in that timeframe slicers will reliably orientate, and support models automatically that won't fail except for user error (not enough resin, not levelled etc). To some degrees, some slicers can do this a bit, but not perfectly, not consistently.

 

As for the Resin itself, I'd also expect there to be safer to handle resins available, not to the point you'd let a 5yr old handle it, but a 10-12yr old? Probably.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Grotsmasha

[Marshal Rohr]

That’s assuming plastic injection molding does not continue to decrease in cost and innovate. Like 12 years ago we got the baneblade. In another ten years who knows how granular or large the kits can be. Sure you could print a warlord Titan, over a week, at significant resin cost. Or you can drop 500 for a plastic one.

 

 

There’s this mania that has seeped into all aspects of entertainment and hobby that eventually it will cost nothing and be cheap and some Moore’s law equivalent will propel society into this utopia where someone can just log onto free internet and download whatever little bit of entertainment they are gonna use that day for next to nothing because everything has decentralized and that has not been the case for anything after the internet. Crypto, P2P, Social Media have all only reinforced existing structures in media, entertainment, ans hobbies.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Marshal Rohr

[The Neverborn]

It seems that they'll be a step before the average joe-nobody is printing in their bedrooms.

 

I'm going to get some 3D printed models, but I'm not going to do it myself. There's already a couple of guys hanging round my clubs Facebook group offering services, there's guys on ebay. And even after paying their "fees" these guys are half to two-thirds cheaper than GW. 

 

I could spend hours looking on say reddit as you pointed out, but why would I when I can walk 6 feet to pick one up and examine it in person? Not sure if you picked that up. Then I can speak to the guy who made a couple of hours later.

 

And i'm willing to forgive someone if there's a 0.5mm gap in a model i paid 50 pennies for. 

Edited October 9, 2021 by Battle Brother Abderus

[Marshal Rohr]

And i'm willing to forgive someone if there's a 0.5mm gap in a model i paid 50 pennies for.

 

And in twenty years if everyone has a printer you’ll be paying five dollars for the same model. Everyone alive can go make French fries, but McDonald’s is still in business.

[The Neverborn]

I was going to respond to your analogy with another one about the price of French fires if only McDonald's could sell them. But I've thought of something.

 

The pieces here here falling into place. There's some people that think that 3D printers will make the hobby more expensive?

 

What I don't understand is why you think that?

 

Everyone will have a limit, even if they know it or not that they are willing to spend on warhammer. If that limit is exceed they will drop the hobby. I can say that if I could get 3 beasts of nurgle for  ₤30 from GW, i wouldn't be buying them on ebay 3rd party/ 3D printed. One costs ₤27.50 from GW. 

 

If someone really like's GW's model then by all means go ahead.

 

For me unless when I get it, unless it's vastly different to what I've seen in person; with my own two eyes I'll be going back for more.

 

The cost of GW direct, or even re-seller, becomes everyone else's problem. At least for models I'm willing to get 3D printed/3rd Party.

 

I'm aware of how selfish that sounds, but that really isn't my problem. 

[Marshal Rohr]

When 3D printing technology is widespread in several decades, like smart phones, the costs of things associated with it will increase. Right now you can buy some trash looking 3D prints for 50 cents because an amateur made them, no matter how nice they look in renders. When more people start producing parts and those people have better skills and better printers are more accessible the cost will go up. Third party resin parts for GW was the same way. You could buy 20 heads from pig iron for less than 5 bucks. Now you can buy tortuga bodies for roughly the same price as a tactical squad.

[Noserenda]

Admittedly ive mostly been dealing with Epic scaled prints but if the presence of some bad models somehow implies most models are bad to you, you probably need to re-examine your logic somewhere along the line.

It also seems like Forgeworld is 3d printing most masters these days too, so are they also garbage now? 

[Marshal Rohr]

Did you see the new Remus Ventanus face? There are some uhhhh kinks to be worked out. GW at least uses that haptic feedback sculpting thing. Amateur CAD guys rarely have access to it.

[Robbienw]

Most miniature companies that sell resin models use 3D printed masters now don’t they?

 

They use expensive and advanced printers to produce the models, with people with required technical skill employed specifically to do this task though. Bit much for the average hobbyist to do by themselves at home!

[Captain Idaho]

I have no idea with the technicals of things but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a generic repository in the near future of files that will include faces etc for 3D printing. If not already. Kind of like generic music that can be used copyright free on YouTube etc.

[Arkhanist]

When 3D printing technology is widespread in several decades, like smart phones, the costs of things associated with it will increase. Right now you can buy some trash looking 3D prints for 50 cents because an amateur made them, no matter how nice they look in renders. When more people start producing parts and those people have better skills and better printers are more accessible the cost will go up. Third party resin parts for GW was the same way. You could buy 20 heads from pig iron for less than 5 bucks. Now you can buy tortuga bodies for roughly the same price as a tactical squad.

 

My £2 of trash printed by an amateur. As in, I've only been doing it intermittently for a couple of months so far. I'm in the process of gluing on the optional gubbins to make them more 'veterany', no cleanup at all done so far. (I can see a couple of underboots that need sanding where I didn't clip off the heavy supports quite right)

 

 

Learning to 3d print needs *some* practise, but it's not rocket science. Learning to airbrush was harder. Learning to drive was *way* harder, and most people manage that eventually!

 

There guys are all from themakerscult, and most of them are vanilla; they come as pre-supported bodies and separate arms. Most are from the basic rifleman unit. I've mixed in a few arms from other units to get the kill team specialists (e.g. from the tank commanders and light artillery) and there are admittedly a couple of digital kitbashes because I'm already familiar with CAD - the bionic arm, doctors bag arm and plasma pistol on the sgt, as I didn't like the valor korps stock one.

 

FDM printers are dirt cheap, and definitely the most common type of 3d printing because of it, but the resolution is still a bit coarse for 28mm miniature printing due to the nature of the melting plastic + nozzle size. Consumer-grade resin printers are dropping rapidly in price and improving in quality; these guys came off a £160 printer, and the next gen are already higher resolution/finer detail/bigger print space.

 

Is it going to supplant injection moulding? No, that's years away, if it happens at all - plastic sprue is a mature tech, and is still a great, if capital expensive method of bulk production. But allowing an absolute stampede of indy designers to produce an incredible range of models and make a good living from it without needing to deal with the whole 'manufacturing supply chains' thing, and end-users be able to print at home for a fraction of the price? That revolution is *already here*. Shapeways and many others proves that "print as a service" also works; as the tech gets better and cheaper, those prices will also fall, as they always do as tech matures.

 

(check out the beastarium for some truly amazing mini designs)

 

Right now, it reminds me of when I was first introduced to MP3's at uni by a nerd friend. "This is the future of music" he said. But I said it takes like 20 minutes to download one track! and you can't buy them anywhere. And ripping your own needs a full PC and knowing how to use ripping software, and takes ages. And then you need to label them by hand. And you can only play them on your PC, not the stereo. Not convinced it will catch on, I said.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Arkhanist

[Marshal Rohr]

You’re making my point for me. MP3 hit widespread usage in like 96/97. Thats twenty-five years ago. Thinking of all the iterations of tech we went through just to get a high resolution mp3 without using a proprietary device we are the CD ripping stage of mp3. It’s gonna be a hot minute before 3D printing gets to the Spotify era.

 

Not to mention, if it follows the same trajectory there’s gonna be some IPA sipping, mustache sporting, skinny Jean wearing hobby hipsters blowing up my spot telling why space marines are meant to be played in the original pewter.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Marshal Rohr

[Domhnall]

 

When 3D printing technology is widespread in several decades, like smart phones, the costs of things associated with it will increase. Right now you can buy some trash looking 3D prints for 50 cents because an amateur made them, no matter how nice they look in renders. When more people start producing parts and those people have better skills and better printers are more accessible the cost will go up. Third party resin parts for GW was the same way. You could buy 20 heads from pig iron for less than 5 bucks. Now you can buy tortuga bodies for roughly the same price as a tactical squad.

 

<SNIP> 

Learning to 3d print needs *some* practise, but it's not rocket science. Learning to airbrush was harder. Learning to drive was *way* harder, and most people manage that eventually!

 

<SNIP>

 

Right now, it reminds me of when I was first introduced to MP3's at uni by a nerd friend. "This is the future of music" he said. But I said it takes like 20 minutes to download one track! and you can't buy them anywhere. And ripping your own needs a full PC and knowing how to use ripping software, and takes ages. And then you need to label them by hand. And you can only play them on your PC, not the stereo. Not convinced it will catch on, I said.

 

 

On the other side of that, painting a miniature to even basic levels is pretty easy and doesn't take much learning or time. But there are people who still field grey plastic armies for reasons such as don't want to, no spare time for that part of hobby, or just don't like it. 

It mIght be easy, but it's not for everybody.   I work with 3D modelling (Autodesk revit specifically) everyday for work, so it'd be pretty easy for me to make the switch to 3D modelling figures I'd say. Just don't feel the call (at this time). Though I do question the driving thing: There are many people I see on the road who can't seem to manage to drive properly 

 

I was well into mp3's though way back in the late 90's! Had a car stereo that played mp3 files before most people I knew, and still have some mp3 files from that time that I just cannot for the life of me get a CD copy or digital file from legitimate sources.  (probably for very good reason! One of which would make Slaanesh blush!).

 

 

Also, it should be mentioned, that it is actual IP/Copyright theft, as it's illegaly replicating a model that is current on sale. I don't feel that we should be supporting illegal infringement like this. Even if we point a finger at GW and accuse them of being greedy, it's more or equally greedy and unjustifiable to outright steal their IP.

 

Fundamentally, I agree with this. However, when a company stands no chance of making that money from me, I am more flexible. In this instance I came across the file, thought this would look cool on my shelf (haven't gamed since 2nd, don't intend on starting again) and downloaded it. I will never, and would never have paid the $500AUD to have bought a legit model from FW. I also won't PAY for IP infringing work, but have no problem paying for files for things that GW don't produce, that is their IP, such as the afore mentioned Primarch Bust stls.

 

<SNIP>

 

 

I am torn with this one, mainly because it's exactly how I feel with it.   I agree with the fact that in many ways it is theft of IP buying a model from a 3rd party... however I also only paint and collect, and as long as it's not a direct copy of an official figure, I'm OK with it, while also 'accepting' that I probably really shouldn't be.  I've got my eye on a particular set of Striking Scorpions that have a very predator (film) vibe to them that I really like. The official Scorpions just don't do it for me, so I'm not going to buy them. If GW came out with new sculpts that I really liked, I'd probably get them. 

[Domhnall]

You’re making my point for me. MP3 hit widespread usage in like 96/97. Thats twenty-five years ago. Thinking of all the iterations of tech we went through just to get a high resolution mp3 without using a proprietary device we are the CD ripping stage of mp3. It’s gonna be a hot minute before 3D printing gets to the Spotify era.

 

Not to mention, if it follows the same trajectory there’s gonna be some IPA sipping, mustache sporting, skinny Jean wearing hobby hipsters blowing up my spot telling why space marines are meant to be played in the original pewter.

 

I was into Space Marines before it was cool. 

 

If they're not bow-legged, bright primary coloured, and could be used as an offensive weapon, then it's not a real space marine. 

[AenarIT]

Not to mention, if it follows the same trajectory there’s gonna be some IPA sipping, mustache sporting, skinny Jean wearing hobby hipsters blowing up my spot telling why space marines are meant to be played in the original pewter.

I'm so far down the rabbit hole of 3D printing that I couldn't understand why anyone would drink the IsoPropyl Alcohol (IPA) I use to wash the printed models before the curing process. 

Then I realized :D

[Arkhanist]

You’re making my point for me. MP3 hit widespread usage in like 96/97. Thats twenty-five years ago. Thinking of all the iterations of tech we went through just to get a high resolution mp3 without using a proprietary device we are the CD ripping stage of mp3. It’s gonna be a hot minute before 3D printing gets to the Spotify era.

 

Not to mention, if it follows the same trajectory there’s gonna be some IPA sipping, mustache sporting, skinny Jean wearing hobby hipsters blowing up my spot telling why space marines are meant to be played in the original pewter.

 

I'm not quite sure what your point is, then. I thought you were arguing it was going to take decades to get to good quality, and costs will increase in line with quality - that current cheap models were 'trash', which I disagree with, given the quality I can print *right now*.

 

I was introduced to mp3 in what, 1994, when it first came out - definitely a geeks-only thing. Then there were the various mp3 portable players in the late 90s, and then the ipod in 2001. I'd argue it didn't really start to start to hit the mainstream till 2003, with itunes. Spotify didn't even launch until 2011! Nowadays MP3s are throwaway files that we don't even bother to download they're so easy to just stream on demand, and now HD quality is replacing it. So a decade from geeks to normal people, say 2 decades to maturity.

 

But for geeks back in the late 90's? MP3s were amazing. It did take a while for it to get easy-to-use for the mainstream, but the promise of what it could do was there from the get-go.

 

Nobody is arguing 3d printing is a mature, man-in-the-high-street-friendly tech yet that everyone will have in their home next year. low cost FDM came about due to the reprap project, in what 2007? And that took years to develop. The elegoo mars 1 was among the first affordable decent resin printers, and that only came out 2018. The latest mars 3 prints in half the time, is 30% better resolution, and a substantially bigger build plate.

 

So yes, I do agree additive manufacturing is absolutely gonna be a good while before it hits the "spotify" level of ease. *My* point is, we're still at the rio PMP3000 stage, maybe the first ipod, we're definitely in the explosive improvements stage, and it's already an incredible tech (for geeks) that will absolutely change the world of little toy soldiers in ways we can't even imagine yet, as it does mature. Being able to print-on-demand at home or the office solid objects in the same quality or better than an entire factory supply chain? 

 

And I disagree it's gonna get more expensive. PCs. Laptops. Smartphones. MP3s. Hell, the internet. Every tech innovation I can think of, as the tech matured and improved, it got much, much cheaper over time.

 

There probably will be a hipster phase though - we already have the 99% IPA! Sorry about that.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Arkhanist

[Marshal Rohr]

3D printing will definitely change the world, but this thread is about how it effects GW, and the answer to that is ‘minimally for the foreseeable future’. If everything politically and economically stays the same, GW may not have a future by the time we are printing food for mass consumption and all manner of ailments are being remedied with medical devices. It’s a toy company, the world is getting worse, the supply chain is not going back to normal. In 25 years GW may be a game available in the UK only, if it exists at all. The people saying ‘GW will eventually make STL files and print those models at home’ and the timeline for that is the same as ‘when people are hungry they can print some miracle meat and make dinner’.

 

Tl;dr: the current wave of 3D printing fans is being driven by Reddit boycotters, not reality. By the time 3D printing matters, GW will have adapted or died off entirely.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Marshal Rohr

[Arkhanist]

Printing food is way harder, and is definitely distant future. Printing solid plastic objects, on the other hand... the main thing GW sells? Given the rapid growth in people experimenting with it, I'd give it a decade, tops, before we see significant impact on GW from people printing themselves, getting from a friend, or just outright buying them.

 

Question is - will people rather pay £50 for a 'GW branded' box of 5 minis, or £5 for 3rd party designs that are just as good if not better (3d printing makes practical things you can't do with injection moulds, such as undercuts). GW is better quality than their competitors in plastic due to better tech, and cheaper than cast resin. 3d printing upends *both* of those.

[Marshal Rohr]

When you start wholly replacing GW models with 3D party knock offs, in their entirety, you’re no longer playing Warhammer. It might as well be legos. Sure terrain or objectives, or some cool detail bitz for your models might be awesome. But if you throw down just 3D printed Artel Space Knights it stops being Warhammer and starts being something else entirely.

[Arkhanist]

Ah, there we disagree. For me, it's about that hobby itch. And I was spending hundreds every year on it. Then I got priced out to mostly only launch boxes. Now I've already switched to almost all 3d printed, and will mostly only buy rules from GW.

 

If I'm playing killteam, or 40k with 3rd party models, it's still the same game, just as if I was using conversions like I did with GW models. I *don't want* every unit to be a cookie cutter copy of the one next to it. That I can get that flexibility at a fraction of the price is gravy.

 

I can finally do a feudal guard army that was well out of my price range for the amount of parts it would have cost in plastic, and I think will be just as cool.

 

Obviously I'm just one early adopter. But I think the 100% GW no matter the cost crowd is smaller than you think.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Arkhanist

[techsoldaten]

Ah, there we disagree. For me, it's about that hobby itch. And I was spending hundreds every year on it. Then I got priced out to mostly only launch boxes. Now I've already switched to almost all 3d printed, and will mostly only buy rules from GW.

 

If I'm playing killteam, or 40k with 3rd party models, it's still the same game, just as if I was using conversions like I did with GW models. I *don't want* every unit to be a cookie cutter copy of the one next to it. That I can get that flexibility at a fraction of the price is gravy.

 

I can finally do a feudal guard army that was well out of my price range for the amount of parts it would have cost in plastic, and I think will be just as cool.

 

Obviously I'm just one early adopter. But I think the 100% GW no matter the cost crowd is smaller than you think.

 

Eh.... not sure I agree.

 

Think about WYSIWYG players. I got into a beef once, an opponent would not let my CSMs use the Bolt Pistols from their datasheet because they lacked physical representation on the model. It was a sentence in a rulebook that gave him leave to demand that.

 

Might seem petty, but people will use rules to their advantage. If GW / TOs say authentic GW models are a requirement, that's a powerful disincentive to use 3rd party models. GW sponsors most major tournaments, therefore this becomes a rule people follow.

 

The other thing to consider: most resin is produced in the South Pacific. With supply chain issues, cheap resin might not persist into the future.

[Domhnall]

Ah, there we disagree. For me, it's about that hobby itch. And I was spending hundreds every year on it. Then I got priced out to mostly only launch boxes. Now I've already switched to almost all 3d printed, and will mostly only buy rules from GW.

 

If I'm playing killteam, or 40k with 3rd party models, it's still the same game, just as if I was using conversions like I did with GW models. I *don't want* every unit to be a cookie cutter copy of the one next to it. That I can get that flexibility at a fraction of the price is gravy.

 

I can finally do a feudal guard army that was well out of my price range for the amount of parts it would have cost in plastic, and I think will be just as cool.

 

Obviously I'm just one early adopter. But I think the 100% GW no matter the cost crowd is smaller than you think.

 

Only touching on the last point here. I will probably agree with you on that, that the 100% GW crowd will be smaller than thought, but only as far as the people that are the 'community'. ie. the people who are passionate enough about it to talk 120+ posts into an internet forum about the future of GW in the 3D printing era, while comendable not decending into mud-slinging by this point (well done guys  ). 

I've said in a previous post that I believe a large part of GW's income comes from people starting up the hobby and then disappearing: Buying £200+ worth of goodies over 2 years, then leaving. Maybe coming back to it 10+ years later, spend another £200, then leave again. That's their bread and butter, that's basically their target audience in my opinion. 

We, the community, probably don't appear on their radar all that much*, and I'm not meaning that in a negative way, just it's the way it is. We've already paid our entry fee, bought a couple of drinks, and sat in the corner. If we buy another drink at the bar or not, really doesn't matter to them in the grand scheme of things. 

 

 

*Apart from nostalgia dives like the new Templar release, which gets us old guard thinking about the good ol' days. 

[Arkaniss]

When you start wholly replacing GW models with 3D party knock offs, in their entirety, you’re no longer playing Warhammer.

Let's not go down that rabbit hole it will throw this completely off track

 

I keep seeing posts saying that 3D printing will minimally effect GW for the foreseeable future and that is a fairly safe assumption*. It is, however, very unproductive to the thread which is talking about how it may impact GW. There is no set time scale here - the thread isn't mentioning a specific point in the future.

 

The theoretical end point I talked about of a 3D printer being as common as a home PC doesn't herald the death of GW, just the death of GW as we know it right now. I believe that one of the best ways they could adapt is to make use of 3D printing themselves - it just makes sense to me that GW gets onboard (at some point).

 

I managed to fit in a 40K meetup over the weekend and a friend unveiled their new army, complete with 3rd party printed symbols on the shoulders. This got me thinking about the 3rd party store scene. It's an industry that has developed to supply people with Chapter/Legion specific items (helmets, vehicle doors, dreadnought parts and more) and that has flourished as GW don't offer much in that regard. The sheer quantity of bitz available means GW can't compete with the variety... but if GW could 3D print them themselves and offer the official versions...?

 

Would people still buy 3rd party then? If you could get the same thing from GW for the same price?

 

*depending on the interpretation of 'foreseeable future'

[Domhnall]

 

Ah, there we disagree. For me, it's about that hobby itch. And I was spending hundreds every year on it. Then I got priced out to mostly only launch boxes. Now I've already switched to almost all 3d printed, and will mostly only buy rules from GW.

 

If I'm playing killteam, or 40k with 3rd party models, it's still the same game, just as if I was using conversions like I did with GW models. I *don't want* every unit to be a cookie cutter copy of the one next to it. That I can get that flexibility at a fraction of the price is gravy.

 

I can finally do a feudal guard army that was well out of my price range for the amount of parts it would have cost in plastic, and I think will be just as cool.

 

Obviously I'm just one early adopter. But I think the 100% GW no matter the cost crowd is smaller than you think.

 

Eh.... not sure I agree.

 

Think about WYSIWYG players. I got into a beef once, an opponent would not let my CSMs use the Bolt Pistols from their datasheet because they lacked physical representation on the model. It was a sentence in a rulebook that gave him leave to demand that.

 

Might seem petty, but people will use rules to their advantage. If GW / TOs say authentic GW models are a requirement, that's a powerful disincentive to use 3rd party models. GW sponsors most major tournaments, therefore this becomes a rule people follow.

 

The other thing to consider: most resin is produced in the South Pacific. With supply chain issues, cheap resin might not persist into the future.

 

 

 

Another point on people using rules to their advantage. If tournaments allowed 3rd party models in the game, there will be people who would take advantage of that as well. "All my marines are crouching down, so you can't see them behind this waist height wall." 

As far as official tournaments go, official figures are generally going to be the only ones you can use purely because they are 'standardised' and approved. 

Otherwise you'd have to take samples from every army to make sure they are 'within reasonable size limits'* etc so there are no disputes because his models aren't the right size, or don't have weapons they say they have etc etc.

 

I'm not saying 3rd party should never under any circumstances be allowed, only that if an advantage could be made, somebody will take advantage of it. 

 

* - this is only one of the many many ways somebody could use printing to their advantage in a tournament.