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New rumors - updated 12-Oct


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27 minutes ago, Captain Caine 24th said:

More rumors coalesce on the codex marking the end of the old man of Armageddon. Alas poor Yarrick (https://youtu.be/GvD0EBfjVQw). I've got to imagine they'll give his story the book treatment, or a campaign narrative. I've got both pewter versions of him, maybe I should paint him properly or convert him in a commisariat leman russ. 

 

Well that’s pretty sad.

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1 hour ago, Inquisitor_Lensoven said:

Has anyone heard if crusaders are still in the codex? I’ll be so annoyed if they are.

 

Why would you be annoyed that the bodyguards of the cardinal's crimson, get removed from the guard codex:ermm:

 

Oh right! cos it makes no bloody sense that they are there in the first place!:laugh:

 

I haven't seen them appear on the leaks, unless no one cares enough to mention them:laugh:

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Emperor Ming said:

 

Why would you be annoyed that the bodyguards of the cardinal's crimson, get removed from the guard codex:ermm:

 

Oh right! cos it makes no bloody sense that they are there in the first place!:laugh:

 

I haven't seen them appear on the leaks, unless no one cares enough to mention them:laugh:

 

 

Sounds just like GW.

should we keep this fluffy, flexible fairly powerful unit that really vibes with the rest of the army by any and all metrics? Nah.

 

should we keep this unit that doesn’t ever really show up any where in the fluff, and doesn’t really vibe with the rest of the army in any way? Hell yes!

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If the leaks are accurate, overall I see us marginally better from where we are today.

 

Assuming Heavy Bolters stay at 10 points, and we keep HotE & AoC:

  • Manticores & Basilisks (assuming no indirect penalty), Vanquishers and Battlecannons on LRBTs & TCs get decidedly better
  • Demo Cannons (reduced to d6 shots), Punishers (reduced to 20 shots), Scions (+2ppm) and infantry squads (+0.5ppm)  all get hit with the nerf bat.

Heck, even chimeras go from 75 points with a Multi-Laser & HB to 80 points.  It's not taken now, and increasing the cost doesn't improve it's odds of making it to the battlefield... :ermm:

 

So let's factor in the new Take Aim!:

  • Old Guard with RR1s to hit with LasCannon & Plasma Gun:  avg 4.5 dmg  (3.75 damage per 50 points)
  • New Guard with Take Aim (+1 to hit & 1AP) does 5.9 damage  (4.53 damage per 50 points)

So the new Take Aim! on infantry does boost output by almost 20%, but the trade-off is a much worse MMM!, and the infantry squad still has no durability to hold an objective for a turn. (not to mention Chimeras are worse... :ermm:

 

So overall the leaked codex is about the same as the old codex, with a few of the outliers pulled in, and the damage profiles fixed a bit.  That being said, if you compare the old codex to the midpoint of all factions, guard is below the average, and the new codex does nothing to address that. 

 

NewGuard.thumb.png.a9361363a2607a1cb6d85dc65a0a939e.png

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1 hour ago, OldWherewolf said:

If the leaks are accurate, overall I see us marginally better from where we are today.

 

 


I have drawn the conclusions (from the leaks and data sheets so far) that we have swings and roundabouts on the points and damage out put) but we generally land in a similar condition - the Russ will still be a staple (but not DC). Infantry are a problem when holding objectives/gaining board control for more than a turn. 
 

Most things now cost more.

 

The deathstrike could be really useful.

The field ordinance batteries don’t compete with a basilisks  - they seem a none starter unless the heavy las is any good.

 

It all hinges on the secondary objectives, if these stay the same the list building I completed today had more tank/armour heavy builds with only a few infantry squads and some scions to grab table quarters for ‘boots’. 
 

The heavier infantry lists I created with rough riders and solar look like glass hammers.

 

I feel overall it’s going to be a step up IF the secondaries stay the same (or improve) armour of content stays and hammer of the emperor stays.

 

If we loose HoE and AoC it could be an uphill struggle - I fear we may loose one or both of these. 

 

 

I am really looking forward to getting the codex and getting into the details of it and list building - really hope it leaks soon and when it’s released I can get a copy (managed to miss out on the last kill team box even after I paid for it within a day of it going live - got refunded a week later) 

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1 hour ago, OldWherewolf said:

If the leaks are accurate, overall I see us marginally better from where we are today.

 

Assuming Heavy Bolters stay at 10 points, and we keep HotE & AoC:

  • Manticores & Basilisks (assuming no indirect penalty), Vanquishers and Battlecannons on LRBTs & TCs get decidedly better
  • Demo Cannons (reduced to d6 shots), Punishers (reduced to 20 shots), Scions (+2ppm) and infantry squads (+0.5ppm)  all get hit with the nerf bat.

Heck, even chimeras go from 75 points with a Multi-Laser & HB to 80 points.  It's not taken now, and increasing the cost doesn't improve it's odds of making it to the battlefield... :ermm:

 

So let's factor in the new Take Aim!:

  • Old Guard with RR1s to hit with LasCannon & Plasma Gun:  avg 4.5 dmg  (3.75 damage per 50 points)
  • New Guard with Take Aim (+1 to hit & 1AP) does 5.9 damage  (4.53 damage per 50 points)

So the new Take Aim! on infantry does boost output by almost 20%, but the trade-off is a much worse MMM!, and the infantry squad still has no durability to hold an objective for a turn. (not to mention Chimeras are worse... :ermm:

 

So overall the leaked codex is about the same as the old codex, with a few of the outliers pulled in, and the damage profiles fixed a bit.  That being said, if you compare the old codex to the midpoint of all factions, guard is below the average, and the new codex does nothing to address that. 

 

NewGuard.thumb.png.a9361363a2607a1cb6d85dc65a0a939e.png

The new army rules make chimera much better even at a slightly higher points cost, and that’s before accounting for new rules and orders. 
 

MMM was likely nerfed because of army rules, making it potentially much more powerful otherwise.

 

your entire analysis seems to ignore all rules. Chimera is worse? How? ML, gets an extra shot, officers can issues orders from inside the vehicle. These are buffs anyone can benefit from.

mechanized rule makes them more viable, swift as the wind makes them better, armored superiority also makes it better.

 

i bet we see the chimera taken a lot more often with this codex even if it only becomes nearly an auto pick to help make command squads or castellans significantly harder to kill, but mechanized armies become more likely and viable now.

Edited by Inquisitor_Lensoven
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1 hour ago, duz_ said:

Well better than nothing I guess... :ermm:

 yep, +1 to hit and 1 more shot for 5 more points...  yippee?

 

12 minutes ago, Emperor Ming said:

Points increases are baffling:confused:

 

Let's make them good first:laugh:

 

If these changes would have come out a year ago, they wouldn't be bad at all.  The 3D BC, the improvements into the Hydra, and no AoC, in a Death Guard and Drukhari meta, Guard would be pretty good.   I think (admittedly, haven't run the numbers yet) these changes would be good into Necrons.  However, since then we've had Tau, Eldar+Harlies+Ynnari, CSM, Nids and Votann, each of which  has taken the game up a notch.  So today, that year-old-codex is 6+ notches down (including the Neph GT Pack). 

 

Since 60% of  of factions have AoC, AP1 has mean absolutely nothing, the game is now massed-high-AP shots or tons of MW output.  Which is why Marines & AdMech suffer so much, as they are tons of AP1 and few high-AP shots, which translates to AP0 vs. 2-ups in cover. 

 

But I think the problems go deeper. 

  1. The best units from the leaked codex (that I put in) are average from a codex-level comparison.  Meaning that if we ranked the best units in the leaked codex against every other unit in every other codex, the Guard units would be in the middle of the pack
  2. While the turret weapons can shoot out of CC is nice, we're still lacking the capacity to deal with units that get into CC.  We can take Rough Riders (which look SWEET!), but then we're trading offensive firepower for melee, and exposing multiple units to deal with 1 melee units.  We'll just be trading down.  Why can't we have fall-back-and-shoot like every other shooting army?
  3. Guard have a 43% WR, and that's on the back of 2 almost-free 15-point secondaries.  Guard Infantry still have ZERO capacity to hold an objective, and Chimera's just got more expensive.  But what's telling is our Secondary "By Lasgun and Bayonet" averages 6 points a game.  That means guard can only kill 1 unit per turn that's on an objective, and once in those 5 turns it will get a 2nd kill.  I don't know about you, but the missions I play have between 4 and 5 objective markers.  The implication here is that Guard output needs to be 2-3x what it currently is just to clear a 2nd objective, and make a dent in a 3rd.  +1 to hit on a turret weapon just isn't going to cut it.
  4. We only play in 1 phase of the game, so dealing with phase-capped units is still a problem.  Psychic powers & Astropaths are better, but compared to Aeldari Warlocks at 20ppm, Astropaths (@40ppm) are waaaayyyyyyy overcosted.
  5. We still have big problems with giving up too many secondaries, as Grind, No Prisoners, and Bring It Down are easy 12-point secondaries against us. 
  6. If Platoon Command Squads are HQ, then we're going to be REALLY short on Orders, as we'll have 1 TC for orders, then 2 Platoon Command Squads for infantry orders.  So LRBTs and other tanks aren't going to have the Order support to really be effective.  Or we take additional Detachments to get additional orders, costing additional CP and potentially Assassination points.  Yes order carry over, if tanks are within 12" (meaning only 1/2 the battlefield is covered), or we lose Inflexible Command VPs because we have to cover a flank.

 

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59 minutes ago, OldWherewolf said:

 yep, +1 to hit and 1 more shot for 5 more points...  yippee?

 

 

If these changes would have come out a year ago, they wouldn't be bad at all.  The 3D BC, the improvements into the Hydra, and no AoC, in a Death Guard and Drukhari meta, Guard would be pretty good.   I think (admittedly, haven't run the numbers yet) these changes would be good into Necrons.  However, since then we've had Tau, Eldar+Harlies+Ynnari, CSM, Nids and Votann, each of which  has taken the game up a notch.  So today, that year-old-codex is 6+ notches down (including the Neph GT Pack). 

 

Since 60% of  of factions have AoC, AP1 has mean absolutely nothing, the game is now massed-high-AP shots or tons of MW output.  Which is why Marines & AdMech suffer so much, as they are tons of AP1 and few high-AP shots, which translates to AP0 vs. 2-ups in cover. 

 

But I think the problems go deeper. 

  1. The best units from the leaked codex (that I put in) are average from a codex-level comparison.  Meaning that if we ranked the best units in the leaked codex against every other unit in every other codex, the Guard units would be in the middle of the pack
  2. While the turret weapons can shoot out of CC is nice, we're still lacking the capacity to deal with units that get into CC.  We can take Rough Riders (which look SWEET!), but then we're trading offensive firepower for melee, and exposing multiple units to deal with 1 melee units.  We'll just be trading down.  Why can't we have fall-back-and-shoot like every other shooting army?
  3. Guard have a 43% WR, and that's on the back of 2 almost-free 15-point secondaries.  Guard Infantry still have ZERO capacity to hold an objective, and Chimera's just got more expensive.  But what's telling is our Secondary "By Lasgun and Bayonet" averages 6 points a game.  That means guard can only kill 1 unit per turn that's on an objective, and once in those 5 turns it will get a 2nd kill.  I don't know about you, but the missions I play have between 4 and 5 objective markers.  The implication here is that Guard output needs to be 2-3x what it currently is just to clear a 2nd objective, and make a dent in a 3rd.  +1 to hit on a turret weapon just isn't going to cut it.
  4. We only play in 1 phase of the game, so dealing with phase-capped units is still a problem.  Psychic powers & Astropaths are better, but compared to Aeldari Warlocks at 20ppm, Astropaths (@40ppm) are waaaayyyyyyy overcosted.
  5. We still have big problems with giving up too many secondaries, as Grind, No Prisoners, and Bring It Down are easy 12-point secondaries against us. 
  6. If Platoon Command Squads are HQ, then we're going to be REALLY short on Orders, as we'll have 1 TC for orders, then 2 Platoon Command Squads for infantry orders.  So LRBTs and other tanks aren't going to have the Order support to really be effective.  Or we take additional Detachments to get additional orders, costing additional CP and potentially Assassination points.  Yes order carry over, if tanks are within 12" (meaning only 1/2 the battlefield is covered), or we lose Inflexible Command VPs because we have to cover a flank.

 

Well mordian Glory has stated these leaks are about a year old  and some of this information may have changed.

 

if codex creep is a problem as most here think it is, then more codex creep isn’t the solution.

 

imho what we’ve seen has solved a lot of big issues with current codex.

 

1. armor has been made more viable

2. pure infantry gets a boost to firepower and mobility.

3. damage output is generally increased

 

only major issue we have not addressed is survivability, which lets face it, part of the guard’s ‘thing’ is that they die in droves and more just keep coming, so I personally don’t see survivability as an issue. Kinda like how I don’t see low model count as an issue for knights or custodes.

 

It seems everyone is looking at stats and points as if they’re in a vacuum with nothing else effecting units, sort of like back in 3rd. It’s not 3rd, we have orders and two (or 3) selectable army wide rules to account for now.

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On 11/5/2022 at 10:06 AM, Emperor Ming said:

Why would you be annoyed that the bodyguards of the cardinal's crimson, get removed from the guard codex:ermm:

 

Oh right! cos it makes no bloody sense that they are there in the first place!:laugh:

 

I haven't seen them appear on the leaks, unless no one cares enough to mention them:laugh:

 

They're removed, but personally I think all those Cult Imperialis units should be agents of the imperium anyway.

 

1 hour ago, OldWherewolf said:

 yep, +1 to hit and 1 more shot for 5 more points...  yippee?

 

If these changes would have come out a year ago, they wouldn't be bad at all.  The 3D BC, the improvements into the Hydra, and no AoC, in a Death Guard and Drukhari meta, Guard would be pretty good.   I think (admittedly, haven't run the numbers yet) these changes would be good into Necrons.  However, since then we've had Tau, Eldar+Harlies+Ynnari, CSM, Nids and Votann, each of which  has taken the game up a notch.  So today, that year-old-codex is 6+ notches down (including the Neph GT Pack). 

 

Since 60% of  of factions have AoC, AP1 has mean absolutely nothing, the game is now massed-high-AP shots or tons of MW output.  Which is why Marines & AdMech suffer so much, as they are tons of AP1 and few high-AP shots, which translates to AP0 vs. 2-ups in cover. 

 

But I think the problems go deeper. 

  1. The best units from the leaked codex (that I put in) are average from a codex-level comparison.  Meaning that if we ranked the best units in the leaked codex against every other unit in every other codex, the Guard units would be in the middle of the pack
  2. While the turret weapons can shoot out of CC is nice, we're still lacking the capacity to deal with units that get into CC.  We can take Rough Riders (which look SWEET!), but then we're trading offensive firepower for melee, and exposing multiple units to deal with 1 melee units.  We'll just be trading down.  Why can't we have fall-back-and-shoot like every other shooting army?
  3. Guard have a 43% WR, and that's on the back of 2 almost-free 15-point secondaries.  Guard Infantry still have ZERO capacity to hold an objective, and Chimera's just got more expensive.  But what's telling is our Secondary "By Lasgun and Bayonet" averages 6 points a game.  That means guard can only kill 1 unit per turn that's on an objective, and once in those 5 turns it will get a 2nd kill.  I don't know about you, but the missions I play have between 4 and 5 objective markers.  The implication here is that Guard output needs to be 2-3x what it currently is just to clear a 2nd objective, and make a dent in a 3rd.  +1 to hit on a turret weapon just isn't going to cut it.
  4. We only play in 1 phase of the game, so dealing with phase-capped units is still a problem.  Psychic powers & Astropaths are better, but compared to Aeldari Warlocks at 20ppm, Astropaths (@40ppm) are waaaayyyyyyy overcosted.
  5. We still have big problems with giving up too many secondaries, as Grind, No Prisoners, and Bring It Down are easy 12-point secondaries against us. 
  6. If Platoon Command Squads are HQ, then we're going to be REALLY short on Orders, as we'll have 1 TC for orders, then 2 Platoon Command Squads for infantry orders.  So LRBTs and other tanks aren't going to have the Order support to really be effective.  Or we take additional Detachments to get additional orders, costing additional CP and potentially Assassination points.  Yes order carry over, if tanks are within 12" (meaning only 1/2 the battlefield is covered), or we lose Inflexible Command VPs because we have to cover a flank.

 

 

I've been saying these rumours have been pretty meh as well and been getting downvoted on Reddit by the "true Guard fans". With Mordians leaks you can literally compare datasheets to what we have now, many just aren't improvements. They're just side-grades at best, meaning we'll still likely be sub 50% at launch. 

Edited by jarms48
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42 minutes ago, jarms48 said:

 

They're removed, but personally I think all those Cult Imperialis units should be agents of the imperium anyway.

 

 

I've been saying these rumours have been pretty meh as well and been getting downvoted on Reddit by the "true Guard fans". With Mordians leaks you can literally compare datasheets to what we have now, many just aren't improvements. They're just side-grades at best, meaning we'll still likely be sub 50% at launch. 

Why are you over looking all of the army rules that go along with all of these data sheets?

all of our vehicles are more viable now. Our infantry more flexible, and  many ways more mobile.

 

there’s more to a codex than datasheets, which is why things are always so hard for GW to balance things out.

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1 hour ago, Inquisitor_Lensoven said:

1. armor has been made more viable

2. pure infantry gets a boost to firepower and mobility.

3. damage output is generally increased

That's just it, damage output isn't greatly increased.  Infantry output has increased, but you have less of it because of the higher points costs.  So it's a wash.

 

Armor isn't really more viable.  Sure the turret weapon can shoot out of combat, the other weapons are hitting on 5s.  Demo Cannons got worse, and BCs are now on par with the new DC.  Overall, that's a loss.  The new tanks don't get the new Take Aim!,

 

Think of it this way, the LRBT with BC gets 6.5 shots, which translates to 1.8 hits.  That's a 145 point tank (ignoring the HB) that can only remove 2 marines.  That's a 25% effectiveness in shooting, which is about right for a melee unit.  Furthermore, MARINES SUCK. 

 

Waiting 5 years for what amounts to a clarifying dataslate would suck. Agreed that more codex creep isn't the answer, but releasing garbage is far worse.

 

1 hour ago, jarms48 said:

I've been saying these rumours have been pretty meh as well and been getting downvoted on Reddit by the "true Guard fans". With Mordians leaks you can literally compare datasheets to what we have now, many just aren't improvements. They're just side-grades at best, meaning we'll still likely be sub 50% at launch. 

 

Yep.  dead-on as usual!

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49 minutes ago, OldWherewolf said:

That's just it, damage output isn't greatly increased.  Infantry output has increased, but you have less of it because of the higher points costs.  So it's a wash.

 

Armor isn't really more viable.  Sure the turret weapon can shoot out of combat, the other weapons are hitting on 5s.  Demo Cannons got worse, and BCs are now on par with the new DC.  Overall, that's a loss.  The new tanks don't get the new Take Aim!,

 

Think of it this way, the LRBT with BC gets 6.5 shots, which translates to 1.8 hits.  That's a 145 point tank (ignoring the HB) that can only remove 2 marines.  That's a 25% effectiveness in shooting, which is about right for a melee unit.  Furthermore, MARINES SUCK. 

 

Waiting 5 years for what amounts to a clarifying dataslate would suck. Agreed that more codex creep isn't the answer, but releasing garbage is far worse.

 

 

Yep.  dead-on as usual!

Yes vehicles are more viable. A Russ can now hold an objective against up to 5 BGVs for example.

vehicles counting as multiple units is a massive buff.

 

People were complaining that you either take a big standard infantry squad for mobility, or you have a heavy weapon for some firepower. Now you can have infantry units with decent firepower without harming mobility or output. Heck you can have an IS with HWT, and still not lose out on anything.

 

The codex is more than unit or weapon stat lines, and where are you getting this idea non-turret weapons are hitting on 5s?

 

Between the ML buff, turret rule, officer rule, and army rules chimeras have gotten so much better and can be used in so many more ways.

 

mechanized is great. SATW is great. Brutal strength is great. These are all things that help to make the faction much more mobile.

combine armored superiority with mechanized and you can effectively get 15 models on an objective with 10 of them having obsec and hiding behind the vehicle.

Edited by Inquisitor_Lensoven
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3 minutes ago, Medjugorje said:

Is there anybody who could have the idea that this "LEAKS" are simply not true?

OR

They are that old that the rules will be completely different?

 

I think we will not see that codex or at least a lot of improvements

 

I have another idea. Probably the Russian Invastion of Ukraine was a point for GW not to release that codex (when AoC and Nids, Harlekins and Co were not a thing).

 

The AP-1 and the stronger tanks were great against Admech and Drukhari in the meta of february/march of 2022.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Medjugorje said:

Is there anybody who could have the idea that this "LEAKS" are simply not true?

OR

They are that old that the rules will be completely different?

 

I think we will not see that codex or at least a lot of improvements


So far all the leaks match the rules from GW, this includes the detailed bits around Lord solar etc not just data sheets

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21 hours ago, Inquisitor_Lensoven said:

Why are you over looking all of the army rules that go along with all of these data sheets?

all of our vehicles are more viable now. Our infantry more flexible, and  many ways more mobile.

 

there’s more to a codex than datasheets, which is why things are always so hard for GW to balance things out.

 

I didn't. We already have leaks for the orders, stratagems, regiment traits, points, etc. They just don't do that much for tanks. All the new tank orders are largely situational, so the one you'll still likely be using is Gunners Kill on Sight! for the RR1 to Hit. Which is no different to now, except if you were currently playing Cadian you'd do the shot reroll order and get the RR1 from other sources but that order is gone in the new codex too.

 

We've lost just as much, if not more, than we gained. Such as:

- Many of the weapons now have higher minimum shots but they have lower average shots and lower maximum shots (except Demolisher and Punisher which are far worse). New battlecannon is 6.5 average shots, the old was 7, but you were likely getting reroll shots every time so the average goes up to 8. Minimum Blast also does nothing now, cause of 4 shot minimum but currently gives minimum 6 shots (because each D6 is a different instance).

- The new stratagems are worse than what we have now, no max shots against vehicles, no exploding or double exploding hits on 6's, no +1 AP at half range, etc. 

- We lost BS3+ which is better than 4+ with +1 to Hit. Due to how modifiers work BS3+ can only be reduced to 4+, whereas the new tanks can still be dropped to a 5+. Also no 3+ hull and sponson weapons.

 

There's only 3 real buffs we got, we can now move the full 10 inch without losing shots. We got +1 wound. We can shoot out of combat. 

 

Quick summary on turret weapons:

- Battle Cannon still suffers from the same issues of being AP-2, being that AoC drops it to -1. No whiffing damage rolls is nice, but it doesn't do much against many of the threats you were already shooting it at. It still kills roughly the same number of models due to said lower shots.

- Demolisher Cannon is flat out worse, due to losing D6 shots and shot rerolls. The extra damage doesn't make up for this.

- Exterminator Autocannon is literally just a worse Battle Cannon at this point and still not worth taking.

- Nova Cannon is better than current but barely. It's still a worse Battle Cannon.

- Punisher Cannon flat out worse, literally lost 20 shots. +1 S and AP-1 does not make up for this, especially against AoC where AP-1 means nothing.

- Vanquisher is definitely better, the issue is that the only way to make it reliable is taking a regiment trait for the RR to Hit. Without that trait it's still too swingy.

- Executioner is the only real winner. Gaining AP-4 is massive, it means even against a marine in light cover and with AoC they're still saving on a 5+.

 

So currently our best variants are:

- Demolisher, Punisher, Executioner, Battle Tank in that order.

 

With the new codex the best variants are:

- Executioner, Vanquisher but you have to waste a trait to make it reliable, Battle Tank. In that order, but there's basically no reason to take the Battle Tank over an Executioner other than range. 

Edited by jarms48
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2 hours ago, jarms48 said:

We've lost just as much, if not more, than we gained.

Defiantly lost way way more than gained, esp. with nerfs and sidegrades and points hikes:cry::cry::cry:

 

The +1 to hit actually nerfs my list as it takes away bs from the tank commander sponsons and hull weapons:laugh:

 

At least they can fire out of combat, if they survive that is:laugh:

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4 hours ago, jarms48 said:

 

I didn't. We already have leaks for the orders, stratagems, regiment traits, points, etc. 


I agree with everything you are saying, even manticores and basilisks are worse than before and cost more, the only good thing is their flat 3 damage - but I’m used to that anyway because I would put a tank ace onto the two I ran. So we gain CP but that is only going to be used on the battle cannon to bring it up to -3AP with Gatekeeper and probably another relic for the Vox or command squad (that’s if we are aloud more than one relic).

 

The only thing that I see gains from the turret weapon rule is the Devil Dogs - hence why I went out and bought two this month. 

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