spessmarine Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 15 hours ago, Burni said: Thanks for the write up @N1SB Glad AoD is doing well - its certainly the only GW stuff I'm currently buying and I'm really enjoying building and painting them. If this encourages them to push more into HH plastics, they'll get no complaints here. Not the forum for it but I wonder what's gone wrong with AoS 3rd Ed. Seems like a lot of online people are down on it, from my limited perspective. not the forum for it indeed, but may be just due to 40k being so much biggerHH benefits from being much more easily cross-compatible with 40k, mechanicum is something they totally could've ported ages ago (rip cyraxus) to add to existing marines and custodes overlap Edited January 13, 2023 by spessmarine Detjan 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5899641 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inquisitor_Lensoven Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 https://www.wargamer.com/warhammer-40k/games-workshop-loses-2-million-to-Russia-war in the grand scheme of things 2.4 million dollars doesn’t seem like that much. That’s what a dozen army boxes? :P Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5899643 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshal Rohr Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Happy to see Heresy have such a big impact. but very surprised it overtook AoS. Now, if they'd release the Cults and Militia/Daemons pdf and maybe even Sktarii they'd have even more cross compatibility to boost those numbers :D Pacific81 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5899696 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Idaho Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Reading that analysis, taking it as more expert than my own, I deduce a fairly predictable release cycle for stuff outside the major lines - things need to be released to shore up the drop in performance of AoS, even if a blip they can't take the risk. So it was said in the analysis The Old World could very well be released in the same year as AoS 4th edition (major release etc) and thus be a big year. Or GW will release additional other things if they want The Old World to be the 4th big release cycle, so a bunch of boxed games and specialist games. Epic confirmed! LameBeard and N1SB 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5899710 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Marshal Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Marshal Rohr said: Happy to see Heresy have such a big impact. but very surprised it overtook AoS. Now, if they'd release the Cults and Militia/Daemons pdf and maybe even Sktarii they'd have even more cross compatibility to boost those numbers :D I'm not that surprised. It's Space Marines: The Game and we all know plastic Space Marines will always sell like hotcakes. It will have also helped that it landed at the end of a 40k edition. Like in 2016, a lot of disenfranchised people will prefer to reach for 'what they know' and wouldn't ya know it, there's a GW game set in the same IP which lets them build/paint Space Marines jjjuusssttt releasing a new boxset, but it uses different rules to the 9th they need a break from... Edited January 13, 2023 by Lord Marshal Emperor Ming, Pacific81 and N1SB 2 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5899743 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pacific81 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Will be interesting to see how much the UK recession feeds into this. I know a lot of GW fans are wealthy and will not notice it, but the company has brought a lot of financially less well off people back into the hobby over the last decade with the lower entry price boxed games, and as a 'non-essential' luxury item these purchases are going to stop while customers are having to choose between food, a warm home and utility bills. Although I am sure there is a joke there of many hobbyists still buying miniatures instead of one of those things.. LameBeard, Noserenda, Detjan and 1 other 4 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5900126 Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1SB Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 (edited) 1st, thank you again for reading and just talking with your friends in your meta about this: everyone is so focused on the Amazon deal, but there's already a Star, and it's the Horus Heresy. It looks like a foregone conclusion now, but it really wasn't. It could have been received like a niche game. Accounting is so complicated even CEOs complain It's hilarious what CEOs actually complain about. They have a pretty good idea how unpopular their jobs are, it comes with the territory, you think you hate them, consider all their colleagues whom they passed over for the top job. But to get there, they develop thick skin...and even they whine about accounting. On 1/13/2023 at 12:36 AM, StraightSilver said: Ah, I was completely unaware there was a monthly subscription available, I thought you could only pay all in one go - now I feel stupid paying all at once..... :) Do NOT feel stupid...they actually do updates called International Finance Reporting Standards like Accounting Balance Dataslates to fix problems. The TL;DR is you pay for an annual US$60 subscription, on half-yearly reports like this one they'll only count US$30 of it (literally half), because of these new rules. They've started doing this because so many things are subscriptions now. Consider IT, software and servers and stuff. Used to be you bought software licenses and server hardware, now it's all subscriptions and Cloud-computing, you don't own anything anymore, you only rent it. It's like having to rent your miniatures. You get a few CEOs drunk in a cocktail party, they'll rant about stuff like this. You are so not alone. New GW CEO is really good at assembling these reports For what it's worth, new GW CEO breaks down everything really well, super-transparent. He probably writes better than GW's rules designers. He went through every detail concisely, more than is asked...to the point some random game website could use each bullet for a new headline. There's also these very sensible things that he does, like how he accounts for the miniature designers. Other CEOs would probably toss them into this Research & Development bucket with everything else...a mystery Black Box, like a slush fund. Microsoft reports Windows, Office, Xbox Revenue in clearly different lines, but all their R&D all are hidden in the same bucket, even though the guys developing the next version of Excel is probably completely separate from the ones designing the new Xbox! Instead, GW CEO put the miniatures designers in the same expenses category as their colleagues who actually manufacture them. Very common sense, but common sense is not common. In 40k terms, you know how Space Marine Scouts are in Elites slot, not Troops? New GW CEO would likely put them back in Troops, where they belong. It is appreciated, at least by me. Downside is, random game website doesn't know how to weigh this, making each bullet The Biggest Story Ever. I Made Artwork...for a financial report (this is weird even for me) On 1/12/2023 at 10:09 PM, Noserenda said: Good news then :) I was surprised AoD has overtaken AoS and its seemingly halfway to 40k! I do suspect the Forgeworld spike in 2016 might have more to do with Warlord titans than the middle of 1st ed Heresy, especially as the plastics were starting to come out around then and they would have gone on the general mail order numbers as i understand it (At least for revenue) and thus eroding the FW sales of resin marines, but not upgrades i guess? But yeah, ive heard anecdotally that whilst Warlord titans are a lot of work for FW they are massively profitable, and given their cost could create quite a bump even with comparatively few sales, and FW has sold thousands according to the certificate numbers, though obviously not all at once :D As always, you totally get what I'm saying, a lot of what used to be Mail Order/Online (Forgeworld) now is shifted to Trade (FLGS)/Retail (Warhammer Stores), but the lump sum Revenue is the same. It is indeed an important shift. However, it always a little bit nebulous, exactly what eats into what. And I know what you're saying, so this is just a reminder. 40k consistently coincides with a £38m bump, 30k with a £20m bump, BUT it's not like 40k itself brought in the £38m and 30k £20m. There's always other sales going on from GW's huge range. Those numbers are just for eyeballing sizes. So you remember how that Tale of Painters site did everyone a solid with a exact side-by-side comparison of different Marks of power armour? To compare, GW Revenue is like a mountainside going up and up, with a pile of snow representing all sorts of background sales. New editions of 40k, AoS, 30k stand atop this snow-covered mountain, and I'm trying to gauge their heights. It's not exact, but I can see, overall *, 30k is bigger than AoS. * Note - obviously, it varies from area to area, meta to meta. So this definitely looks different where you are, but it's a macro view. But you see what I was getting at. We got very valuable intel, even if it's not accurate or precise, just to size the different product lines up. My CFO friend ControllEric said on WhatsApp, "Let's see if this is consistent," as in does this trend continue with HH 3.0. He's right, that'll be the true test. I should've just talked about Growth, not Profit On 1/12/2023 at 6:55 PM, Metzombie said: Great write-up @N1SB. As allways a very interresting read. One thing about stuff like Black Libary and Warhammer+ is they should probably not been seen as a pure money making tool but more as an marketing tool like the White Dwarf. I mean probably most of us get some inspiration for a project from a book or some WD articels or a battlereport. And not only gives us Warhammer+ more of this it gives us easy access to old WDs and campaigne books. Things newer players would probably never get their hands on othwerwise. This is hard to put into value especially without all the data. I would be very interrested to know if GW have ever noticed something like "We put out a story with unit X doing some cool things and now we have sold 10% more of that unit" I would be supprised if they did not. You're right, and I agree. Your example with White Dwarf is great, it's like a banner ad in magazine stores, great comparison. I was more concerned about Growth, not Profit, because if you use BL and WH+ as ads...you want more and more views and clickthroughs, leading to... "Preaching to the converted"-only is a problem On 1/12/2023 at 10:34 PM, StraightSilver said: I think the fact that Warhammer+ made a profit in year 1 at all is impressive. However, I'd query the assertion that it will make £6 million rather than the reported £3 million as the subscription costs are up front, rather than a monthly cost? So, unless there are more subscribers throughout the year (which there might be) the revenue would remain the same? I personally am a subscriber, and am happy with the content for what I pay, but I find it frustrating that there isn't a console app (which is how I watch all of my streaming services). I have no idea if that would affect subs but it has certainly reduced the amount I actually watch, on a service I have paid for (because watching on a browser is not ideal - none of the videos play without buffering issues on my XBox but run fine on my PC).I also think GW are "preaching to the converted" as far as advertising Warhammer+, in other words pretty much exclusively via their own channels, and think there would actually be a broad market outside of their existing customer base (gamers). For example, I have a lot of friends that read Black Library novels but have zero interest in gaming/collecting/painting that had no clue Warhammer+ existed. I think if they ever got to a point of marketing outside of their own channels they would have to add more content and change their pricing model (same cost, paid for differently). But, I would say Warhammer+ is definitely a success. And let's not forget, it's not just animated shows - it's battle reports, painting videos, lore videos and the vault. The content is still slim, but to have produced the amount they have, for the money spent, is actually very impressive.The question now is: Do they feel if they invested more budget to produce more content, could they pull in more subscribers? I think the honest answer is yes, they could, but maybe not without changing the service in some way. ^ This is how I should have put it. If the goal for BL and WH+ is to reach a broader audience, the lack of growth suggests there's been no broadening at all, it's just reaching existing Warhammer customers. It kinda defeats the purpose of the exercise a bit. Because it was recent, I mentioned how WotC saw they (thought they) have a huge Casual audience that's not buying anything; they might even play, but their DM buys everything for them. With BL and now WH+ numbers not really changing, I really wonder if we even have a Casual audience. (We may not think of ourselves as such , but if you use WotC standards, our buying, building, painting even a small army is way Hardcore.) Imagine you're in charge of Warhammer+. You're told to grow, but you need money to make money. You go to GW CEO: "Sir, I've a plan to increase WH+ subscriptions by 100%, all I need is another 50% more to our annual budget for even more content." "Brother...I just laid off Tom, Dick and Harry, because the economic outlook is bad. Your budget is £2 mil. You're asking me for another £1 mil NOW?" You can see the GW CEO gets your point, and you'll make the money back, but that budget could go elsewhere, and it's a bad time to ask. It's the broader issue. BL and WH+ are great, I was about to pick up that Robert Rath Assassins' book. It's not a criticism of them. It's the fact I think Brother Silver put it best, Warhammer is really good at preaching to the converted, but we've yet to crack the code on broadening our reach. Thanks for the feedback, especially the U.S. on-the-ground view I'm hearing you, I'm trying to make sense of the trend in North America. What you reported in makes a lot of sense to me. North America is already overtaking the UK, Warhammer's homeland. That was awhile back, this is why it's a significant issue. I want to double-check something from recent years. Edited January 17, 2023 by N1SB pawl, Mechanicus Tech-Support, Gamiel and 17 others 15 5 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5900237 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky Potato Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Brother, every single word of your posts is absolute gold. Thanks for awesome analysis. Formatting wise, your white headline banners merge into the white background of the mobile\tablet, making the headlines impossible to read. The Yncarne and N1SB 1 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5900246 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noserenda Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Robert Rath is actually an interesting marketing example too, as he mentions/shows his books from time to time on the Extra history youtube channel, which is a whole nother potentially fresh audience :D N1SB 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5900302 Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1SB Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 2:41 AM, Sky Potato said: Brother, every single word of your posts is absolute gold. Thanks for awesome analysis. Formatting wise, your white headline banners merge into the white background of the mobile\tablet, making the headlines impossible to read. Thanks for letting me know, I didn't realise it, still getting used to the new B&C which I believe to be a genuine improvement, but I've yet to learn its intricacies. Really terribly sorry about this, Brother, and to all others who had the same issue. As a stop-gap measure, I've fixed this thread with at least some red font on the white banner headlines. I used to be a web dev, I'd actually test my pages on different browsers (remember Netscape) for this reason. This is an embarrassing slip-up on my part. Will be back probably in the next 24 hours on the outstanding U.S. issue. We don't get direct visibility into GW's American business (for that matter, we don't even get it for the UK, in different parts of the report sometimes UK is a separate entity and others it's part of Europe), but we do see North America numbers. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5900668 Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenScorpion Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 As usual this thread is an interesting insight into things. One issue I see with things like Warhammer+ is the audience and how to increase subscribers beyond those already in the hobby. Using my country as an example, in Portugal we already have a large number of streaming services available, although they typically take longer to appear than in other locations and the content available might not match what is available in the UK or the US for example. This is partly due to the fact that some content needs voice overs to be recorded in Portuguese with local actors or translator to add the subtitles to the movies/series and also because the Portuguese market is not one of the major ones, so we tend to be second, third or + waves in terms of releases. For this particular example lets use the Disney+ service to help demonstrate the situation here. Even before the service was available, there were several ads on TV and elsewhere about the upcoming service and some of the content. After some initial promotion, they have kept putting ads on regular TV and some of the cable TV companies are even using the offer of the Disney+ service for "free" as a promotional thing to get more customers. The thing is that Disney is widely known and so as soon as the ad campaign appeared, lots of people went to check what was offered and the overall cost compared with the previous streaming services available. GW lacks the media presence of Disney and while the IP is certainly interesting it is a niche and the comparison between the content provided by Warhammer+ and other streaming services is not something that favours the current service, especially when the base prices per month/year are somewhat similar. To get Warhammer+ to make more money, GW would need to invest in ways to get a larger fan base but also increase the content enough in terms of variety/quantity that people see it as a more appealing subscription, even if they are not fully into the miniature part of the hobby. The issue is that the upfront costs of setting up a streaming service that looks good to non-warhammer fans are not small and the other methods used by GW to get the hobby out there are not necessarily linked to Warhammer+, being mostly based on those kits for newcomers that they have shown from stores and school related projects from the UK. For example, to get most of the Portuguese population to subscribe, some subtitles in Portuguese would be required, things would need to be advertised on TV, social media and other high visibility locations, which is something that GW is not capable of doing on a country like mine. If Conquest had done well in Portugal things might be easier, but the way the local distribution was handled and the poor translation work of the magazines accompanying the issues reflected badly on GW from what I could tell locally. Things like Conquest and Imperium could easily serve as tie-ins to Warhammer+ and Black Library, with some publicity on the magazines, but as mentioned the translation work would be required for most people in my country to even care about such topics as English is still far from being considered a pleasant way to read for most in my country. If we extrapolate this into other parts of the globe, we get similar issues, advertisement in general purpose communication means, translation of content to the local language and methods to attract people who might not care about the miniatures but are interested in the universe. Obviously this is just a high level view of things and I know @N1SB and a few others can certainly add a few more insights or make some corrections to my statements, but I think that in short Warhammer+ needs to be popular enough to be extremely profitable and that might be an investment that GW is not yet willing to make. Detjan, Pacific81 and N1SB 3 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5900693 Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1SB Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) Brothers, I think I've made a huge mistake, sorry Upon realising my mistake, I wanted to own up to it 1st. It's an oversight that affects Autumn 2022 for this report, and actually Summer 2016 (AoS year). TL;DR - currency exchange rates whiplashed with the British pound sterling had a huge impact on GW's Revenue, making it look far bigger than it is. As discussed this half-yearly report in particular, Revenue isn't just money, it's also a measure of the popularity of The Hobby; that's why we care. As a result, it's actually not a good sign at all for The Horus Heresy, but GW is still holding onto its biggest guns...the Imperial Guard, World Eaters, Arks of Omen...for the rest of this year. We wisely avoid political topics on B&C. Even for things regarding financial matters like GW's performance, that's usually okay...politics' impact on business is far less than politicians want to claim. However, 2 political moments happened in Summer 2016 and Autumn 2022 that dramatically lowered the value of the British pound, the native currency for GW. Because GW does so much business outside of Britain now, like how the US has effectively overtaken England as GW's biggest market, it made GW's Revenue look a lot bigger. Because we avoid talking about politics, and rightly so, and the fact that GW's been growing rapidly even without this weird currency distortion, it usually doesn't matter...except THIS half-year. All the growth I saw could be attributed to these exchange rates rather than actually more sales. I discovered this because I was looking into the North American situation. All indicators looked good, I was confused for the past 2 nights! Until it's 1 line on the top sheet about Revenue at constant currency. That basically said, "Everything you're about to be told is a lie." Edit - to be clear, that's just a reference to the tagline from the old =][=nquisitor game. The CEO is very upfront, that's why he's been disclosing so much, basically saying "the numbers look good only because of this currency skew," without referencing politics. As both penance and just trying to get to the correct understanding of things, I'm going to review everything as far as I can, to 2006 if possible. Edited January 18, 2023 by N1SB Emperor Ming, Brother Captain Vakarian, Trokair and 17 others 10 1 9 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5900936 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Idaho Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 20 hours ago, N1SB said: As a result, it's actually not a good sign at all for The Horus Heresy So are you saying the HH wasn't the success we wanted it to be? Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5901188 Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylerboodie Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I always value your insight- and honesty - NS1B The part of your initial analysis that confuses me is this bit: On 1/10/2023 at 11:23 PM, N1SB said: This COMPLETELY explains the 5.8% Trade price increase. GW's current gross profit margin is 64.1%. The Trade price increase is 5.8%. 64.1% + 5.8% = 69.9%...or almost exactly 70%. Surely the trade increase is only on the trade portion, not overall (retail, online, trade), and is also talking about sales not profit. So, I'm not sure how adding a price increase percentage [potentially could be considered all profit, if all increasing costs etc are considered in the pre- price rise revenue / gross profit margin, and this is just extra 'income for nothing'] for one portion of the business can be added to the overall gross profit margin of the whole business to arrive at the intended 70% target; surely that's not adding apples to apples? Might just be my misunderstanding. Karhedron 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5901210 Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfTheLion Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Captain Idaho said: So are you saying the HH wasn't the success we wanted it to be? Could be not the success that we wanted, but given the statements in the financial report, it was the success GW wanted. They sold out of every kit they had for months, in my opinion, they hit essentially whatever the cap of what money they could have made on it. I don't think the decrease in pounds all that much matters outside of certain regions' purchasing, but I'd need to see the formulae. It's certainly not going to be on the order of a 25% swing in their revenue. What it would mean though, is that the US sales that are flat, really are probably a bit of a decrease, as US sales are going to be more lucrative. Actually if it's in constant currency, then that would be normalized and US sales should be normal. The actual money they made would probably be a bit higher when they moved it back into GBP. Essentially, if I read right, the revenue in constant currency should be all pegged to some value prior to any currency shift that happened during the half. Edited January 19, 2023 by WrathOfTheLion Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5901217 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenith Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 On 1/19/2023 at 1:31 PM, WrathOfTheLion said: They sold out of every kit they had for months, I think that this is the best indicator for their expectations - they want to make money, they make as many kits as they think will sell, however they vastly underestimated the popularity, and as a result things were out of stock for months. The last time we seen this was around the start of 8th, where kits were suddenly popular and were OOS for 3-4 months at a time, and look what happened to the stock price. Even now, just see how many people complain about the difficulty in getting hold of FW Legion transfers? From that I'd say HH was doing better than they expected. WrathOfTheLion and skylerboodie 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5906297 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noserenda Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Often that's from not having enough stock or poorly anticipating demand or even scalpers in the case of things like transfers. I'd heard from one of gws warehouses that the whole thing was full of AoD boxes and an insanely small number of rhinos for example. So not to say things aren't selling well, but selling out can mean a lot of things Bryan Blaire and Pacific81 1 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5906321 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pacific81 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 It was acknowledged in the most recent annual financial reports that mistakes had been made in the prediction of sales volumes of different releases, so it could just be because of that. Noserenda 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5906409 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenith Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Maybe AoS3? I recall it was either my local store or the GW Webstore went out of stock of the AoD box the weekend of release, then they had to shuffle more stock around (pull some from physical stores or 3rd parties?) and it became available direct again. Admittedly I haven't digested N1SB's correction fully, but it still seems a good year for GW? Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-5907239 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Idaho Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Whilst no company can always fully predict the future all the time, one of the crucial capacities of any business is to accurately predict demand. The repeated and widespread failure here by GW means one of 2 things - either critical incompetence or a persistent supply issue. Since GW wants to make money and this is a modern problem rather than historically accurate, I'd say it's likely the latter. On a personal anecdotal level, local toyshops and 3rd parties to myself have said stories about supply chain issues that are wider, so my experience supports the hypothesis for me. GW are making great money, but there is definitely a supply and production issue wider they are dealing with. It's possible it's to do with lack of facilities etc, but we know GW was building these a few years ago, so I doubt it's to do with that. I'm not in the industry so the details as to why this is happening isn't known to me at this stage. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-6010657 Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1SB Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Richard_Allen said: It's clear that Horus Heresy 2.0 has exceeded expectations, surpassing even the performance of Age of Sigmar. This is an impressive feat and suggests a strong interest in the 30k narrative, the Horus Heresy novel series, and Primarchs making their way into movies. Beyond being a success for 30k players, it's also strategically crucial for Games Workshop, filling a gap in their release schedule. Brother Richard, I owe you an apology. I never edited my Original Post, that's on me. TL;DR was, at 1st I thought HH 2.0 did really well, but I've since realised it was due to currency issues. I've edited my post and pasted here for your convenience: MAJOR EDIT, pre-Christmas 2023: I previously made an error with the following. HH 2.0 launch period NOT as successful as previously thought because it was inflated by currency issues. It happened this Half-Yearly Financial Report happened just after a very short-lived mini-budget in the UK that crashed the currency. Low British Pound (£) value artificially made GW's Revenue look bigger than it was. Easier to show than explain: So notice here there's a few "revenue"-related terms, but the important one is "Revenue at constant currency." GW arranged this to present a real pretty picture. Core revenue is The Hobby, the miniatures and books and what we consider Warhammer, that grew like 10%. Licensing revenue is like GW's royalties from Warhammer-branded video games, which fell a bit and is perfectly normal because that's dependent on other video game developers. But when you look at "Revenue at constant currency"...it's unchanged. Like three quarters of GW's business is outside the UK now, using other currencies like US dollars. When the British Pound fell precipitously, those other currencies looked much more valuable in comparison...that actually bloated up GW's revenue figures, see. HH 2.0 clearly did grow things a little bit (to make up for lower licensing revenue), but it was not a huge performer. We're about 2 weeks away from the Half-Yearly Financial Report for 40k 10th ed. I'll be on the lookout for this...I actually imagine 10th ed to have grown a bit more than HH 2.0, and I definitely think the supply bottleneck of GW being limited to its Nottingham plant has capped out its growth. Not hyperbole or gloom & doom, just the reality of so many things "Not currently available". Basically, it was a political mini-budget that threw these numbers in a loop. It just happened the report came out around that time. Hey, sorry about the confusion. HH 2.0 DID grow the business, yes, but it was a little bit less than AoS had, I reckon. The exchange rates screwed with the numbers a bit. And I most strongly agree with you on how HH 2.0 fills a gap in their release schedule. Like GW's entire groove is to release something every summer, I hear ya. Edited December 21, 2023 by N1SB firestorm40k, Captain Idaho and Gamiel 3 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-6010660 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scribe Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 (edited) 15 hours ago, N1SB said: I'll be on the lookout for this...I actually imagine 10th ed to have grown a bit more than HH 2.0, and I definitely think the supply bottleneck of GW being limited to its Nottingham plant has capped out its growth. Not hyperbole or gloom & doom, just the reality of so many things "Not currently available". Will this be able to be definitively determined in the data offered? I have to agree that the impression I get is they have reached the peak of their throughput of product. I was in my FLGS the other day, chatting with the boys and the owner, and its simply not possible to get some things, sometimes for months on end. Thats not an ideal situation for growth. Edited December 22, 2023 by Scribe LemartestheLost, Starlight_Wolf and N1SB 3 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-6010832 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Until Nottingham City Council get their act together there's very little Games Workshop can do beyond possibly up-rooting certain facilities and moving them around the country, although I imagine they'll be incredibly reluctant to do so; the benefit to remaining in Nottingham is easy access to the wider wargaming industry and the talent therein, coupled with keeping design, production and distribution all relatively close-by for ease of communication. RikuEru, Noserenda and N1SB 2 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-6010845 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stitch5000 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 3 hours ago, Joe said: Until Nottingham City Council get their act together there's very little Games Workshop can do beyond possibly up-rooting certain facilities and moving them around the country, although I imagine they'll be incredibly reluctant to do so; the benefit to remaining in Nottingham is easy access to the wider wargaming industry and the talent therein, coupled with keeping design, production and distribution all relatively close-by for ease of communication. Nottingham, nor the locale that GWHQ is situated, is hardly devoid of potential property.... Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-6010860 Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylerboodie Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Joe said: Until Nottingham City Council get their act together there's very little Games Workshop can do beyond possibly up-rooting certain facilities and moving them around the country, although I imagine they'll be incredibly reluctant to do so; the benefit to remaining in Nottingham is easy access to the wider wargaming industry and the talent therein, coupled with keeping design, production and distribution all relatively close-by for ease of communication. Can you clarify for non-locals what impact Nottingham City Council is having on GW's facilities? Are they holding up development of land they own or something? Thanks Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/377132-jan-2023-gw-half-yearly-financial-report-i-had-made-a-mistake-hh-20-overestimated/page/3/#findComment-6010866 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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