What Happens When Chaos is the Starter Again?

[Norman Paperman]

I think that Orks are probably the best bet for an edition launch just based on their popularity. I think GW will learn, particularly after Skaventide, that they need to have models that people want in these launch boxes and that niche factions are a tough sell. Nids and Necrons are two of the most popular factions in the game, and while I think Drukhari are super-super cool and they obviously need a refresh, a niche army is less likely to move boxes. And as much as I would love Thousand Sons in a launch box (seriously, please), they're a notoriously difficult army to paint and that creates other barriers to purchase. Maybe if there's a trend of Thousand Sons models selling more after SM2 (I have noticed more TS at my LGS), but I doubt that would propel my dusty boys that far ahead of their competitors into a premier box. 

 

It's the same logic that will keep SM as the other half of the box until the heat death of the universe, because there's just so many SM players who want half the box by default. If you want half a box for your army and the other half would be a fun project to start another for practically no cost, that's a fun buy that people are going to feel good about. But if you're an Aeldari player looking at Space Marines and Thousand Sons when neither really interest you, you might prefer to spend your money and painting hours on an army that you're more interested in. GW is happy to have you buying and painting, but they're producing thousands upon thousands of these boxes and after Dominion and Skaventide have failed to sell well, GW knows these boxes aren't 100% slam dunks, no matter how cool the models are. 

 

I will note as my personal answer to the OP's question, when Chaos is the starter box again it probably means I'm buying two!

Edited January 16 by Norman Paperman

[Khulu]

39 minutes ago, Norman Paperman said:

I think that Orks are probably the best bet for an edition launch just based on their popularity. I think GW will learn, particularly after Skaventide, that they need to have models that people want in these launch boxes and that niche factions are a tough sell. Nids and Necrons are two of the most popular factions in the game, and while I think Drukhari are super-super cool and they obviously need a refresh, a niche army is less likely to move boxes. And as much as I would love Thousand Sons in a launch box (seriously, please), they're a notoriously difficult army to paint and that creates other barriers to purchase. Maybe if there's a trend of Thousand Sons models selling more after SM2 (I have noticed more TS at my LGS), but I doubt that would propel my dusty boys that far ahead of their competitors into a premier box. 

 

It's the same logic that will keep SM as the other half of the box until the heat death of the universe, because there's just so many SM players who want half the box by default. If you want half a box for your army and the other half would be a fun project to start another for practically no cost, that's a fun buy that people are going to feel good about. But if you're an Aeldari player looking at Space Marines and Thousand Sons when neither really interest you, you might prefer to spend your money and painting hours on an army that you're more interested in. GW is happy to have you buying and painting, but they're producing thousands upon thousands of these boxes and after Dominion and Skaventide have failed to sell well, GW knows these boxes aren't 100% slam dunks, no matter how cool the models are. 

 

I will note as my personal answer to the OP's question, when Chaos is the starter box again it probably means I'm buying two!

Necrons are popular because of the launch box, imo. I didn't know any other current Necron players before that box was revealed, and now I see them everywhere.  Unless my scene is an anomaly (which is possible), I think them being the main antagonists is the reason they are now popular.

[DemonGSides]

57 minutes ago, Khulu said:

Necrons are popular because of the launch box, imo. I didn't know any other current Necron players before that box was revealed, and now I see them everywhere.  Unless my scene is an anomaly (which is possible), I think them being the main antagonists is the reason they are now popular.

 

Necrons have always been semi popular by sheer fact of how easy they are to hobby; building can be a nightmare but there's no easier army to paint. 

[Inquisitor_Lensoven]

On 1/13/2025 at 3:55 AM, Redcomet said:

For a good number of years Launch boxes have been used to introduce new miniatures, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. 

And the box I described would be introducing new miniatures, no change.

 

for a good number of years? Relative to what? Most years it’s the same old space marines vs the same old models for whatever the opposition faction was.

[Tawnis]

1 hour ago, Khulu said:

Necrons are popular because of the launch box, imo. I didn't know any other current Necron players before that box was revealed, and now I see them everywhere.  Unless my scene is an anomaly (which is possible), I think them being the main antagonists is the reason they are now popular.

I've played Necorns since 3rd edition, they were my second every army. I know a few others that have played them long term, but in general, yeah, I've seen FAR more Necron players since they were the launch faction. (That and I know a few people that got into them after reading The Infinite and the Devine.) 

[DemonGSides]

7 minutes ago, Tawnis said:

I've played Necorns since 3rd edition, they were my second every army. I know a few others that have played them long term, but in general, yeah, I've seen FAR more Necron players since they were the launch faction. (That and I know a few people that got into them after reading The Infinite and the Devine.) 

 

Fact of the game getting more popular and yeah, a release box will do a bunch to get more players.

 

But Necrons weren't at Drukari levels or anything prior to 9th.  They had a sizable forgeworld presence and had been rebooted once already. Pretty indicative of some popularity (as nebulous as such a thing could be, or any way for us to actually know popularity numbers).

[Tawnis]

Another possibility to add to the 3 I listed before (but one I don't think will be THIS edition, but could very easily be 12th) is Tau. However, I think they've pushed the suits and Tau angle as far as it can reasonably go and would go the Auxiliary route that I think would get a lot of people interested. Knarloc Riders and Great Knarlocs from the Kroot. Expansion of the Vespid to give them another unit or two and a character, a Nicassar unit and/or character to finally give the Tau a Psyker unit. A Charpactin character / lone op would be a neat buffing / defbuffing unit. Galg troops would be not only a really neat model, but a way to show the really creepy looking alien side of the Tau allies. The Terellian Dog-Soildiers are another option, and one with an axe to grind against the current big bads, the Tyranids. 

 

While the Kroot release this edition was a bit luke-warm, the issue isn't the strength of the army or how cool the models are but from cost. Full hunting pack is a very strong list that I can personally attest to doing well in competitive events, and the models all looks great, though they could be a little more posable. The issue is the absurdly expensive cost of putting together and all Kroot army that turns a lot of people off the Tau Auxiliaries. Being able to cheaply acquire a good portion of the Tau's other races would make the people asking for them since 3rd very happy as well as bring in a lot of new players to a now very diverse faction with a flexible playstyle (something Tau have always struggled with being). It would be a good move for them. 

One other thing that's just kind of a neat though for Chaos being the 11th edition starter. The last Black Crusade was the 13th. It's very possible that they make 14th edition be the 14th Black Crusade, which would make 11th he perfect spot to slot Chaos in as a big bad before taking a two edition break, then brining them back. It would also match up with them being the big bad last in 8th edition, with a 2 edition gap. 

 

[DemonGSides]

1 hour ago, Tawnis said:

While the Kroot release this edition was a bit luke-warm, the issue isn't the strength of the army or how cool the models are but from cost.

 

Speaking anecdotally, I know more than a few Tau players who have 0 interest in the auxiliaries so the whole Kroot focus of this edition has really soured them.

 

On the flip side, I know of at least three people who literally only started buying GW plastic with the Kroot stuff so it's probably a bit of a wash.  The army box being the only economical option was helpful. 

[TheArtilleryman]

5 hours ago, Norman Paperman said:

I think that Orks are probably the best bet for an edition launch just based on their popularity. I think GW will learn, particularly after Skaventide, that they need to have models that people want in these launch boxes and that niche factions are a tough sell. Nids and Necrons are two of the most popular factions in the game, and while I think Drukhari are super-super cool and they obviously need a refresh, a niche army is less likely to move boxes. And as much as I would love Thousand Sons in a launch box (seriously, please), they're a notoriously difficult army to paint and that creates other barriers to purchase. Maybe if there's a trend of Thousand Sons models selling more after SM2 (I have noticed more TS at my LGS), but I doubt that would propel my dusty boys that far ahead of their competitors into a premier box. 

 

It's the same logic that will keep SM as the other half of the box until the heat death of the universe, because there's just so many SM players who want half the box by default. If you want half a box for your army and the other half would be a fun project to start another for practically no cost, that's a fun buy that people are going to feel good about. But if you're an Aeldari player looking at Space Marines and Thousand Sons when neither really interest you, you might prefer to spend your money and painting hours on an army that you're more interested in. GW is happy to have you buying and painting, but they're producing thousands upon thousands of these boxes and after Dominion and Skaventide have failed to sell well, GW knows these boxes aren't 100% slam dunks, no matter how cool the models are. 

 

I will note as my personal answer to the OP's question, when Chaos is the starter box again it probably means I'm buying two!

Guys I know who operate FLGSs have said the issue with Skaventide was the Stormcast. People playing Sigmar wanted the Skaven but were meh on the Stormcast and that’s why the boxes weren’t shifting. They just aren’t the same as marines in terms of popularity. If you look on eBay, you can buy the Stormcast half of the box for a disgustingly low price.

 

I think the 40K box will always shift tons because of the marines that you can always sell. What faction goes alongside is largely irrelevant to sales, although recent ones have been particularly good on both sides. Orks would be an especially good pick next time because they are so iconic for 40K and we haven’t had them in a launch box since 5th. Feels like an obvious one.

1 hour ago, DemonGSides said:

Speaking anecdotally, I know more than a few Tau players who have 0 interest in the auxiliaries so the whole Kroot focus of this edition has really soured them.

This was my view. Don’t like Kroot at all. 

[Tawnis]

On 1/16/2025 at 8:22 PM, DemonGSides said:

 

Speaking anecdotally, I know more than a few Tau players who have 0 interest in the auxiliaries so the whole Kroot focus of this edition has really soured them.

 

On the flip side, I know of at least three people who literally only started buying GW plastic with the Kroot stuff so it's probably a bit of a wash.  The army box being the only economical option was helpful. 

Yeah, I know a few of both of those sections too, that does seem like a wash, just thinking overall sales. 

 

The one place that I did see more of, is that every time I've taken my Kroot to a tournament since the new Detachment released I've done well (3 times now: a narrative event that I went 4-0, and two competitive events that I went 3-0 and 4-1) other players there of various factions all got interested in Kroot asked me how I designed the list, other options to take, strategies vs various factions, and several talked about trying it out themselves as their next army.

I think because of the cost to build a full army and the fact that their seemingly weak datasheets bely the army's strength as a whole, it's taking longer for them to catch on, but more people are slowly getting on board. 

 

On 1/16/2025 at 9:47 PM, TheArtilleryman said:

This was my view. Don’t like Kroot at all. 

 

Yeah, it's pretty divisive though that's how Tau in general has always seemed to be too. 

For me Kroot are my favourite faction in 40k, and it's not even close. Not that I don't like and collect many of the other factions, I do, it's just that I'm most passionate about my Kroot army; the look and design of the models / creative paint styles, what lore we have on them, and how much fun they are to play on the table. For me they are the trifecta. 

Edited January 16 by Tawnis

[Frogian]

14 hours ago, DemonGSides said:

 

Speaking anecdotally, I know more than a few Tau players who have 0 interest in the auxiliaries so the whole Kroot focus of this edition has really soured them.

 

On the flip side, I know of at least three people who literally only started buying GW plastic with the Kroot stuff so it's probably a bit of a wash.  The army box being the only economical option was helpful. 

feel it was similar with orks where people either loved the beast snagga stuff and that's their army, or they stayed well clear and don't even have a combat patrol to buy anymore.

[ChapterMasterGodfrey]

Just jumping in here to give my two pence. I made a seperate post that touches largely on this topic. I think the 11th launch box antagonists will be Drukhari. They so desperately need the range refresh, moreso than Orks imo. I do get the popularity argument, but, as others have said, the majority of people buy these boxes for the marines. Also, I think a good range refresh will boost Drukhari popularity like the Necrons experienced.

 

I think the Ork rumours are for the end-of-edition campaign 10th will get.

 

Looking even further ahead to 12th though, yes I can very easily see the likes of the Thousand Sons being the antagonists. I think the TS are actually due new Rubricae, they're a bit short imo. Plus, they have criminally few actual units compared to the likes of the DG and have been in line longer than the WE. 

 

I'm happy to see others think Intercessors will be redone. I've been saying that for a while now. I hope they go as far as making them Tactical Intercessors. In fact, here's a comment I left on this thread that is what I guestimate the Marine half of the 11th box will be:

- x10 Tactical Intercessors

- x5 Vanguard Veterans

- x5 Assault Terminators

- x1 Vehicle: Either x1 Drop Pod, x1 "Scout Storm Speeder" (replacement for Land Speeder Storm that can transport scouts, x1 Iron Clad Dreadnought remake - less inclided for this option as doesn't match "fast attack"

- x1 Captain on Bike. He won't be able to lead anything but that hasn't stopped GW before.

- x1 Termie LT

- x1 Jump Chaplain

- x1 Ancient, either termie or jump

- x1 Apothecary either termie or jump OR x1 Techmarine in Termie, I think this is dependent on if it's a dread in the box.

[TheArtilleryman]

24 minutes ago, ChapterMasterGodfrey said:

Just jumping in here to give my two pence. I made a seperate post that touches largely on this topic. I think the 11th launch box antagonists will be Drukhari. They so desperately need the range refresh, moreso than Orks imo. I do get the popularity argument, but, as others have said, the majority of people buy these boxes for the marines. Also, I think a good range refresh will boost Drukhari popularity like the Necrons experienced.

 

I think the Ork rumours are for the end-of-edition campaign 10th will get.

 

Looking even further ahead to 12th though, yes I can very easily see the likes of the Thousand Sons being the antagonists. I think the TS are actually due new Rubricae, they're a bit short imo. Plus, they have criminally few actual units compared to the likes of the DG and have been in line longer than the WE. 

 

I'm happy to see others think Intercessors will be redone. I've been saying that for a while now. I hope they go as far as making them Tactical Intercessors. In fact, here's a comment I left on this thread that is what I guestimate the Marine half of the 11th box will be:

- x10 Tactical Intercessors

- x5 Vanguard Veterans

- x5 Assault Terminators

- x1 Vehicle: Either x1 Drop Pod, x1 "Scout Storm Speeder" (replacement for Land Speeder Storm that can transport scouts, x1 Iron Clad Dreadnought remake - less inclided for this option as doesn't match "fast attack"

- x1 Captain on Bike. He won't be able to lead anything but that hasn't stopped GW before.

- x1 Termie LT

- x1 Jump Chaplain

- x1 Ancient, either termie or jump

- x1 Apothecary either termie or jump OR x1 Techmarine in Termie, I think this is dependent on if it's a dread in the box.

That would actually be a very cool box. 

[ZeroWolf]

1 hour ago, ChapterMasterGodfrey said:

Just jumping in here to give my two pence. I made a seperate post that touches largely on this topic. I think the 11th launch box antagonists will be Drukhari. They so desperately need the range refresh, moreso than Orks imo. I do get the popularity argument, but, as others have said, the majority of people buy these boxes for the marines. Also, I think a good range refresh will boost Drukhari popularity like the Necrons experienced.

 

I think the Ork rumours are for the end-of-edition campaign 10th will get.

 

Looking even further ahead to 12th though, yes I can very easily see the likes of the Thousand Sons being the antagonists. I think the TS are actually due new Rubricae, they're a bit short imo. Plus, they have criminally few actual units compared to the likes of the DG and have been in line longer than the WE. 

 

I'm happy to see others think Intercessors will be redone. I've been saying that for a while now. I hope they go as far as making them Tactical Intercessors. In fact, here's a comment I left on this thread that is what I guestimate the Marine half of the 11th box will be:

- x10 Tactical Intercessors

- x5 Vanguard Veterans

- x5 Assault Terminators

- x1 Vehicle: Either x1 Drop Pod, x1 "Scout Storm Speeder" (replacement for Land Speeder Storm that can transport scouts, x1 Iron Clad Dreadnought remake - less inclided for this option as doesn't match "fast attack"

- x1 Captain on Bike. He won't be able to lead anything but that hasn't stopped GW before.

- x1 Termie LT

- x1 Jump Chaplain

- x1 Ancient, either termie or jump

- x1 Apothecary either termie or jump OR x1 Techmarine in Termie, I think this is dependent on if it's a dread in the box.

(The following post assumes 11th in 2026 if it does come out this year, breaking how editions are handled then please ignore)

 

We should hear about the end of narrative campaign at years end, just like we did for Arks of Omens. However, the 11th rumours specifically say marines vs orks box so I'm still leaning more to orks as they generally have more appeal then DE (remember, they have the data from 3rd edition when the DE last were in a box, if not that many people bought in then, might make a difference now. Also Necrons and Nids were popular before their boxes to different degrees).

 

 

[The Praetorian of Inwit]

Orks are a good fit for 11th, so it would also be nice if the SM's were Crimson Fists instead of Ultramarines yet again. 

 

When Chaos are next included I think it will be as Chaos Space Marines rather than a Legion. Maybe painted as Word Bearers and with some new Daemon Engines or something. 

[ZeroWolf]

2 hours ago, The Praetorian of Inwit said:

Orks are a good fit for 11th, so it would also be nice if the SM's were Crimson Fists instead of Ultramarines yet again. 

 

When Chaos are next included I think it will be as Chaos Space Marines rather than a Legion. Maybe painted as Word Bearers and with some new Daemon Engines or something. 

If not legion specific (like TS or WE) it'll be Black Legion as GW will see them as easy to paint for beginners (which is why Ultramarines are the SM poster boys, because blue is incredibly easy to paint and they're generic).

[ChapterMasterGodfrey]

24 minutes ago, ZeroWolf said:

If not legion specific (like TS or WE) it'll be Black Legion as GW will see them as easy to paint for beginners (which is why Ultramarines are the SM poster boys, because blue is incredibly easy to paint and they're generic).

Then there’s me who sucks at painting black..

[TheArtilleryman]

26 minutes ago, ChapterMasterGodfrey said:

Then there’s me who sucks at painting black..

I’ve found the trick for this is not to paint black. Drybrush the model with a couple of layers of something else, like grey, then cover it in layers of black ink or contrast. Results in a nice depth of black without strictly painting black as a colour.