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+++E Tenebrae Lux+++

Captain Semper

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Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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E TENEBRAE LUX – JUNE 15TH UPDATE




http://www.fortressoftheunforgiven.com/DA_Challenge_End_of_Time.jpg




+++ IN THE GRIM DARKNESS OF THE FAR FUTURE THERE IS ONLY WAR+++




E TENEBRAE LUX has just completed its first month in what can only be described as a resounding success. With almost 300 participants and more than 165k points pledged so far between all forums this is a moment for all of us to feel proud! Congratulations to every one for your commitment and enthusiasm! Now the number of participants is fixed, the teams for each forum are formed and those that have committed carry the responsibility to drive their faction to new heights of glory and honor! Remember that from now on NO NEW ENTRANTS AND NO MODIFICATIONS TO SUBMITTED VOWS ARE ALLOWED!

So the initial enthusiasm must now gradually give way to reflection and longer term planning so that each forum maximizes their chances to come on top. Some forums (BTs, BAs & SWs) have already threads in place that discuss the recruitment phase; now these same threads could continue to serve as Strategiums where each forum will be discussing their strategy, allocate specific tasks to team members and share intelligence from other forums strategies and progress. I strongly recommend that all forums utilize such methods as not only they’ll help on a practical level – they also help to maintain moral and ongoing drive in what is essentially a marathon – not a sprint!

To be a bit more specific, here is the situation as it stands now in the form of the familiar table of the previous weekly updates:

E TENEBRAE LUX – JUNE 15TH
Black Templars 53 64 29,911 467
Blood Angels 46 51 26,997 529
Dark Angels 65 69 36,102 523
Codex Space Marines 47 49 30,309 619
Space Wolves 36 40 25,654 641
Chaos 36 39 13,819 354
Ordos Inquisition 13 17 5,061 298
Total 296 329 167,833 510
Index Astartes 23 24 13,267 553
Liber Astartes 13 14 9,663 690
Ultramarines 11 11 7,379 671


From the table above one can easily see the relative sizes of the teams for each forum. However the number of participants is only one parameter for the final success. The commitment of the various forums will now be reflected in the size of the average vow (as new vows will be coming in) and of course the completion rate, i.e. what percentage of the pledged points that are completed! These two metrics will be crucial as people will be able to decide on what sort of size of new vows they should be aiming and how far behind (or ahead) each forum is in achieving its maximum potential! This is going to be interesting as there are no constants! Both the number of vows and the number of points are variables so get ready for a lot of fun!!!

In order to monitor the situation better, and since the number of participants is now fixed, I’m going to introduce a new table in the weekly updates (next one will be coming in next Monday or Tuesday) the format of which can be seen below:

E TENEBRAE LUX – JUNE 15TH
Black Templars 64 29,911 467 3,821 13%
Blood Angels 51 26,977 529 2,925 11%
Dark Angels 69 36,102 523 755 2%
Codex Space Marines 49 30,309 619 220 1%
Space Wolves 40 25,654 641 3,078 12%
Chaos 39 13,819 354 2,116 15%
Ordos Inquisition 17 5,061 298 1,563 31%
Total 329 167,833 510 14,478 9%
Index Astartes 24 13,267 553 85 1%
Liber Astartes 14 9,663 690 135 1%
Ultramarines 11 7,379 671 0 0%



So now the average vow and the overall completion rate will be visible each week. Furthermore the first page table will be updated frequently (the aim here is to have at least one daily update) so people can see completions and calculate rates on their between the “official” weekly updates.


Comments:

The Dark Angels appear to be in a good position. They have the largest team which certainly gives considerably more options especially as the Challenge progresses. Their average vow is slightly above the average of the ETL denoting that they are not overly reliant on few super-vows adding to their flexible outlook. This combined with the highest amount of pledged points puts the DAs among the favorites to win. Where they obviously lag at the moment is completions as their completion ratio is a meager 2%. Given the early phase of the Challenge this is not too worrying... yet!

The Wolves present the opposite picture. The second lowest participation (AT PAR WITH Chaos) and the highest average vow mean a high reliance on super-vows and makes for an unstable mix in the long run. This means that a few braves will have to tirelessly continue to vow even after their first (huge) vows are completed! The fairly high completion rate of 12% this early in the challenge also underlines the effect of the high point average vows... Do they have the stamina to keep going? Well, if not the Wolves then who?

Blood Angels have made a very decent appearance. With 46 participants and an average vow of close to the competition average they are excellently positioned to make a serious attempt for victory. They have a relatively high completion rate for this stage of the Challenge of 11% which means they are a formidable opponent. Add to that their legacy as the painting forum (twice LPC Champions is not to be taken lightly) and you have a solid contestant for the Champion title! Well done guys!

Black Templars went crazy. Let me explain: They have the second highest number of participants (53) of which 22(!) pledged a vow after last Tuesday’s weekly update. These are the most vows added in a single week by any forum, and it was not even a full week – rather 3.5 days is more like it... And that’s not all. They have managed the most completions (some of them are in their 5th vow already) and have a respectable completion rate already at 13%. Their average vow is lower than the average though which means they will have at some point to pledge more, Emperor’s Champions alone won’t cut it...

Codex Forums are a strange mix. Their total participants match those of the BAs which is very encouraging but their average vow is significantly higher than the Challenge average – that means many participants and many with high value vows as opposed to the Wolves that have few participants with high value vows. As a result, at present, the Codex forums have the second highest points value pledged. This is going to be the most interesting faction to watch because it can go both ways: either people get tired of their large vows and lose momentum, or their high participation will kick in and win the day! Hmmm... We just have to wait and see.

Chaos made some last minute additions but the bottom line is they are few (at par with the Wolves) and with a very low average vow. Frankly they will have to do something if they want to challenge the title of the Champion. And since bring in more participants is no longer an option they’ll have to significantly raise the value of their vows... If rumors of an imminent new Chaos Codex prove correct it might be the catalyst they’ll require to really get their engines going!

Ordos Inquisition is the outsider. They are few but they are committed! They currently sport the highest completion rate with an astounding 31%! They sure are a source of inspiration for all! Keep it up guys!

The Mechanicum declined the challenge altogether.


So remember: NO MORE NEW ENTRANTS, NO MORE MODIFICATIONS ON VOWS!


So until the next weekly update, farewell and good luck to all!
Matt6.1 Battle-Brother

Matt6.1

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Sanguinor down. Now if we were all to paint this lovable chap we would have another 14,025 points added to our tally. BA really do have the advantage of having some viable heavy hitting HQs.

 

http://i1258.photobucket.com/albums/ii535/mhen092/S2.jpg

http://i1258.photobucket.com/albums/ii535/mhen092/S3.jpg

http://i1258.photobucket.com/albums/ii535/mhen092/Sanguinor.jpg

http://i1258.photobucket.com/albums/ii535/mhen092/S1.jpg

JamesI Venerable Brother

JamesI

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Posted
Sanguinor down. Now if we were all to paint this lovable chap we would have another 14,025 points added to our tally. BA really do have the advantage of having some viable heavy hitting HQs.

 

http://i1258.photobucket.com/albums/ii535/mhen092/S2.jpg

http://i1258.photobucket.com/albums/ii535/mhen092/S3.jpg

http://i1258.photobucket.com/albums/ii535/mhen092/Sanguinor.jpg

http://i1258.photobucket.com/albums/ii535/mhen092/S1.jpg

Yeah, the timing of the contest for me was bad. I had just painted my Mephiston, Astorath and Sanguinor before it started.

 

Very nice Sanguinor!

Taranis Veteran

Taranis

Posted
Posted
Yeah, the timing of the contest for me was bad. I had just painted my Mephiston, Astorath and Sanguinor before it started.

 

Very nice Sanguinor!

I'm in the exact opposite position. Mine are going to enter the competition later, I hope. Perhaps also Dante, some Epistolaries :lol: And perhaps RAS/Vanguards. :tu:

Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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E TENEBRAE LUX – 5th WEEK UPDATE







So, after 5 complete weeks and with the teams for each forum fixed, E TENEBRAE LUX is entering its second phase – that of the build up of critical mass of completions. This is actually the most important part since it’ll require a lot of commitment as the initial enthusiasm wanes and the finish line is still way into the future. People might feel they have plenty of time yet, but this is an illusion! If people become complacent and lose their momentum now, it’ll be very difficult to regain it when the deadline is imminent – it’ll be just too scary. In my view E TENEBRAE LUX will be won or lost between June 15th and July 15th so get those completions done and renew vows early – because last minute renewals also carry a disproportionate amount of risk in them.

On more practical level, there is not much change since the June 15th extraordinary update. Overall the teams have had some completions and some renewals but the basic picture remains largely unchanged.

E TENEBRAE LUX – 5TH WEEK UPDATE
Black Templars 68 30,961 455 4,757 15%
Blood Angels 51 26,977 529 3,190 12%
Dark Angels 69 36,092 523 755 2%
Codex Space Marines 49 30,309 619 220 1%
Space Wolves 40 26,919 673 3,078 11%
Chaos 40 14,104 353 3,446 24%
Ordos Inquisition 18 5,341 297 2,198 41%
Total 335 170,703 510 17,664 10%
Index Astartes 24 13,267 553 85 1%
Liber Astartes 14 9,663 690 135 1%
Ultramarines 11 7,379 671 0 0%



Comments:

The Dark Angels are comfortably positioned for the next month’s effort. However currently they are significantly lagging in terms of completions with a completion rate with only 2% vs. an average of 10% of the entire event. Just to make a point here, if the DAs had a completion rate in line with the current average of the ETL then they would be at ca 3,600 completed points and in second overall position. That would be achieved by only being average. In fact they would lose only to the BTs that have a much higher-than-average completion rate (15%). As it stands now though they are the second worse in the competition, with only 755 completed points. Unless the engines start soon, the 1st Legion is in for some serious embarrassment!

The Wolves appear to be calmly in control. With completion rate of 11% (very close to the average) they do not seem overextended and with an absolute number of completed points of above 3,000 they appear to be following the developments from a close distance – a distance that they can easily cover if it appears to widen. Their only real problem is structural, i.e. the relatively small amount of participants. However at this stage of the competition it does not show… yet!

Blood Angels are a force to be reckoned with. With completion rate of 12% and with almost 3,200 total completed points, they are currently in similar position with the Wolves (i.e. comfortably close to the leader without any particular worries) but without the Wolves’ structural issues as they posses significant numbers that give them much higher staying power… However if they want to make it for the top they’ll need to improve completion rate further and start on second and subsequent vows fast. And yes, the BAs can easily do that.

Black Templars, still crazy after all these years... After a fantastic show of commitment in the closing stage of the recruitment period, they carry on with completions and new vows that lower their completion rate. As a result their completion rate is “only” 15% (which is still 50% higher than the average) translates to almost 4,800 completed points and are currently at the top of the competition. They have huge momentum and sky-high morale! However the risk of an early burnout is very much a consideration. It’s still early on guys, if you overextend yourselves you might not have the drive in the final stages where competition will undoubtedly peak!

Codex Forums have been quiet for some time now. The vows are in but where are the completions? Really, where are they? They have a good mix of high-value/low-value vows so by now they should have some completions under their belt. With the completion rate of just 1% (even lower than the DAs and the lowest overall) they only have a meager 220 completed points. This is in many respects a similar situation as the DAs since the Codex Forums are the third in terms of pledged points and above the 30k mark. But guys, the winner will be the one with the most completed vows. So get down to it – or the competition will leave you behind very soon. Don’t forget, number of participants make a difference only if you follow the competition closely. If you’re left behind and other forums have made tons of second or third vows, your relative advantage would be wasted!

Chaos has come together very nicely so far. Their completion rate is the second highest at 24% however it only translates to some 3,400 completed points underlying the low value of the average vow. If their average vow was at par with the average of the ETL (510pts/vow) then with this completion rate they’d be leaders, marginally ahead of the Black Templars with 40% less pledged vows! To be fair a new mega-vow of ca 2,000pts is to be submitted soon (some tweaks remain) and this will both raise the average value and lower the completion rate somewhat. So let’s see… Chaos (as always) is interesting!

Ordos Inquisition are the heroes of the ETL: Completion rate 41% the highest in the competition while 40% of them (i.e. ALL those that have reported completions) have made a second vow. The first vow completion rate is 53% (!) So guys, can you do 100% completion rate for the first vow at least?


So until the next weekly update, farewell and good luck to all!
Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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Congratulations Glendor - another one for the Angels in red! Good to see you went for my favorite Chapter among BA successors too! Could we get a better picture of the Sterngurads?

 

Table updated - look forward for your second vow!

alejandrinus Veteran

alejandrinus

Posted
Posted

I'm in the prior stage of airbrushing after two weeks of working

First stage of racking the different pieces of the baals and razorback:

gallery_45127_6429_280989.jpg

More info in how i magnetize the baals and the stormraven in my WIP thread link in my sign.

Cheers brothers we can do this ... for Sanguinius!

Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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E TENEBRAE LUX – 6th WEEK UPDATE







So, six weeks have come and gone and the situation has changed and changed again. Right now E TENEBRAE LUX keeps adding to its total pledged points but also completions are rising steeply! This is full blown war!!! People should remember that this is not a static event i.e. you made your and all you have to do is complete it, but rather a dynamic event where the standings can change materially from week to week and the final outcome will depend on the ability of the teams to keep going until the last day.

So here’s how things look at the end of week 6:

E TENEBRAE LUX – 6TH WEEK UPDATE
Black Templars 74 32,226 435 7,468 23%
Blood Angels 51 26,977 529 3,600 13%
Dark Angels 71 38,747 546 4,910 13%
Codex Space Marines 51 31,652 621 2,747 9%
Space Wolves 42 28,604 681 6,393 22%
Chaos 43 16,956 394 4,751 28%
Ordos Inquisition 19 5,591 294 3,408 61%
Total 351 180,753 515 33,277 18%
Index Astartes 26 14,610 562 2,612 18%
Liber Astartes 14 9,663 690 135 1%
Ultramarines 11 7,379 671 0 0%


Comments:

The Dark Angels had a sluggish start. They are no longer leader in terms of vows and are significantly lagging in terms of completions. Right now they have a completion rate of 13% still lower than the average of the competition of 18% and significantly behind the leading forums. However they added the highest amount of points on a weekly basis showing a tendency for a comeback. Is there a new momentum building up? It’d better be… A few things the DAs still have going for them is a reasonably high average vow, and the highest total vows pledged. But rivals are not sitting idle, so the legendary single-mindedness of the Green marines must emerge.

The Wolves are fun! I never thought I’d say that but there you have it. At one point they seem lagging hopelessly behind – you’d think they are written-off – the next minute a super-vow gets completed and they lead the ETL! This is how the Wolves roll in this competition so they are the most unpredictable bunch. It’s possible next week they be last and the week after first again. Although some more reasonable sized vows are trying to regulate the pace, to me it seems they are like a giant that takes too long to make a step but one he makes it he’s very far ahead! Keep it up guys – if you can keep delivering you have as good a chance to win this as any!

Blood Angels deflated badly. They added the least amount of points this week compared to ALL other forums. This performance has left them in a difficult position because they do not have the pledged points that the DAs have (hence with a similar completion rates they are more than 1k points behind) nor do they have reliance on super-vows like the Wolves that could give them hope of closing the gap with a couple of completions. Guys there is no going around this – you have to get stuck in – start painting in earnest and put some serious completions behind you. To those that think “we still have time” the answer is: “so does the competition” and yet they have completed more than 20% of their pledges so far…

Black Templars play the game as it should be played and they rightfully lead the show! They have a perfect mix of low/high value vows and keep production steady. With 7.5k completions and the highest number of vows (exceeding the DAs) seem to be in top form. They are currently second in total points pledged but with an average vow significantly lower than the ETL average. That means that on average, vows are manageable, do not require huge amount of time to complete and do not intimidate. This strategy works if you keep pledging new vows which the BTs tirelessly do! Keep it up guys and there’s no stopping you!

Codex Forums are the worst performers in the ETL so far. If it wasn’t for one player’s super-mega-vow, the performance would have been beyond disappointing…. Thanks to Arizonajirt 2k+ completion the weekly additions resemble normality but the completion rate of only 9% speaks for itself. Get some completions done guys, and then start vowing again! I know it’s tough but the competition is ruthless at this stage and you run the risk of being left behind. There is immense potential here, don’t let it wither…

Chaos has surprised positively big time. With a completion rate of 28% (!) demonstrated the commitment of the Chaos team to be a force to be reckoned with! However the low average vow and the low total points pledged means that the significantly high completion rate translates to “only” 4.7k completed points. Which frankly is not bad at all. Chaos, being Chaos, is fairly unpredictable and who knows? Now that they tasted blood they might go for it all the way! Remember as long as you complete vows your chances are as good as any.

Ordos Inquisition are doing a magnificent job! At more than 60% completion rate they stand defiant in the face of the First Legion! Congratulations guys! Now can you achieve 100% completion rate on the first vow? That’ll be a feat to remember!


Until the next weekly update, farewell and good luck to all!
Darklighter Veteran

Darklighter

Posted
Posted

I have completed my Vow, but sadly I'll not going be able to pledge any more points to the challenge. I have started two Sanguinary priest, but I've lost the start pictures and I've nearly got them finished! It's disheartened me a bit and I'll not be modeling any more until I've read and played a few games of 6th.....

 

http://i457.photobucket.com/albums/qq292/Troggman/Blood%20Angels/VVsquad1.jpg

 

 

You know what as I've typed this I've changed my mind and I'm going to pledge that I Darklighter complete Mephiston Lord of death of Codex Blood Angels for a total 250pts.

 

http://i457.photobucket.com/albums/qq292/Troggman/Blood%20Angels/MephistonWiP.jpg

 

Sorry for the photo quality I had to set up and take them in bad lighting while juggling an 8 month baby trying to eat my models!

 

 

Edited because I forgot a picture for my new challenge.

Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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Well, look at that - a BA completion! Well done Darklighter - good to see you vowing again! ;)

 

 

TO ALL BAs: Guys this is slipping through your hands! With less than 4k points you ahave among the weakest performance. This is the most difficult period because there is still time until the end of the event but it's also the most important. The distance between you and the leading forums is widening to a dangerous level. It could be the case that completing your vows will just not be enough - you will need to vow again. So let's see some more completions done to get you back in the game.

Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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Soups that's impressive stuff!!!

 

But don't you get the feeling that you are unsupported? What the BAs should be doing is complete numerous smaller vows ( <300pts) to build up the completion rate. Those guys will give super vows like yours the edge. Let's face it, you cannot win this on your own... (no lack of trying though :D) The smaller vows, once complete, will vow again increasing the frequency of the output and creating winning momentum.

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