The Blade of Caliban: Another look

[FerociousBeast]

All of the rules, D6 rolls, abstractions, all of it can be crystalized into a single D100 roll indicating probability. So let's take a look at this sergeant and calculate his odds of beating the Dark Angel Company Champion.

 

Sergeant armed w/ Power Sword, Bolt Pistol, Power Armor. WS4, S4, T4, I4, A3

Champion armed w/ Blade of Caliban, Bolt Pistol, Power Armor, Combat Shield. WS5, S5, T4, I1, A3

 

Sergeant's probability of causing a wound with 1 attack: 1/2 x 1/2 x 5/6 = 5/24 = 21%

Sergeant's probability of causing one or more wounds with 3 attacks: 1 - (1 - 0.21)^3 = 51%

Champion's probability of causing a wound with 1 attack: 2/3 x 2/3 x 1 = 4/9 = 44%

Champion's probability of causing one or more wounds with 3 attacks: 1 - (1 - 0.44)^3 = 83%

 

Since the Sergeant strikes first, he has a base 51% chance of victory.

The Champion has to carve that remaining 49% up since he'll only strike if the Sergeant fails (0.49 x 0.83). So he has 41% chance of victory.

There is an 8% chance that both will survive to a second round of combat.

 

The Sergeant is the favorite, but not by much. Meanwhile, when neither model is in a challenge, the Sergeant is dealing 0.75 wounds per turn to the Dark Angels while the Champion is dealing 1.32 wounds per turn to the Sergeant's battle brothers.

[Master Sheol]

The main thing is that the command squad is meant to be the bodyguard for ICs...

To fit that role there is a apothecary giving FNP to the IC a stardard (giving bopsts to the CS and/or nearby units) and the Champion that has the role to accept challenges instead of the IC to kill the biggest treat or to die trying...

The apothecary will never accept challenges due to his role...

The problem with the Champion is that he his not able to do any damage to any opponent due to his mandatory Blade of Crap...

The Champion is useless in bis main role so he is a point waste...

We can use another unit instead to protect out IC like company veterans or black knights but this two units grants no FNP to the IC and they dont have any standard so its likely to buy two units to do the work that should be done by just one.

IMHO to fix the GW and RW command squad the BoC should lode Unwieldy for another less limiting one (two handed can work), in addiction the RW command squad could be 5 men like all other CSs.

 

Another way to make more appealing the BoC could be reworking the Unwieldly special file adding this "A Unwieldy weapon can be used with two hands to overcome the I penalty, however Unwieldly and Specialistic weapons can NEVER be used two handed".

[Phoebus]

EDIT: And I dont say anything about my guy wanting to dish out damage, but if my champion is incapable of killing a freaking sergeant whats the point of him been the champion and equip him thus? So he can kill two models more? He can do with a chinsword.

Exactly.

On the top of my head, I dont remember any SM codex who gimps its company champion with a weapon that makes him useless in chalenges, whether he wants it or not.In fact the SM codex champion gets access to a power weapon. Meaning that if you want to gimp him with an axe do so yourself.

So I fail to see how this is a universal problem.

My feelings exactly.

I fail to see how Azrael will outperform a grot who avoids all of his attacks and kills him in return. It might not be very likely, but you don't seem to be interested in probability or my actual arguments, only what if scenarios.

It's not just a classic "what if?" scenario, though. Mathematically speaking, there are only so many HQs in each army - and they will almost always be outnumbered by the number of Sergeant-types running around. Will the Champion will perform his ignoble - and contrary to the spirit of the character and fluff in general - role and soak up a Wound while your HQ runs rampant on the enemy? Or will he run into a Sergeant who simply strikes at a better Initiative and gets lucky with his roll to hit? Or, irony of ironies, will the Codex Company Champion or Blood Angels Blood Champion get the Dark Angels Champion on one of the two (or three) attacks they get to make before he gets to go?

The point being, what makes this game special are the themes that accompany it. It's a shame when those take a back seat to math that isn't entirely assuring or convincing (going off of the last examples provided) - meaning no offense to you!

[FerociousBeast]

 

The problem with the Champion is that he his not able to do any damage to any opponent due to his mandatory Blade of Crap...

The Champion is useless in bis main role so he is a point waste...

 

Thank you, Master Sheol, for completely ignoring everything I've written in favor of the internet-knee-jerk reaction.

 

@Phoebus, I can understand being disappointed that the Champion is not better in challenges than he is. But I'm arguing only that he's a worthwhile 15 point upgrade. Before I started this thread, everything I read about the Blade of "Crap" was that it wasn't worth taking and you may as well take a power weapon instead, if anything. I disagree with that.

[Drunkspleen]

All of the rules, D6 rolls, abstractions, all of it can be crystalized into a single D100 roll indicating probability. So let's take a look at this sergeant and calculate his odds of beating the Dark Angel Company Champion.

 

Sergeant armed w/ Power Sword, Bolt Pistol, Power Armor. WS4, S4, T4, I4, A3

Champion armed w/ Blade of Caliban, Bolt Pistol, Power Armor, Combat Shield. WS5, S5, T4, I1, A3

 

Sergeant's probability of causing a wound with 1 attack: 1/2 x 1/2 x 5/6 = 5/24 = 21%

Sergeant's probability of causing one or more wounds with 3 attacks: 1 - (1 - 0.21)^3 = 51%

Champion's probability of causing a wound with 1 attack: 2/3 x 2/3 x 1 = 4/9 = 44%

Champion's probability of causing one or more wounds with 3 attacks: 1 - (1 - 0.44)^3 = 83%

 

Since the Sergeant strikes first, he has a base 51% chance of victory.

The Champion has to carve that remaining 49% up since he'll only strike if the Sergeant fails (0.49 x 0.83). So he has 41% chance of victory.

There is an 8% chance that both will survive to a second round of combat.

 

The Sergeant is the favorite, but not by much. Meanwhile, when neither model is in a challenge, the Sergeant is dealing 0.75 wounds per turn to the Dark Angels while the Champion is dealing 1.32 wounds per turn to the Sergeant's battle brothers.

Factor in the Apothecary and your Sergeants chance of wounding the Champion goes down to (1/2 x 1/2 x 5/6 x 2/3) or 10/72 (13.9%), the net result being that his probability of inflicting at least one wound drops to ~36%, and the Champions odds of victory (after the sergeants attacks) going up to 53%

[WatchCaptainAzrael]

Today on the Dark Angels subforum we learned: situational loadouts are universally crap.

[Master Sheol]

FerociusBeast i appreciate all your statistica about the BoC performance against other weapons but you still forget the I1 rule of this weapon.

This is the main issue about the BoC.

 

Fluff wise the DA Champion should be the guy who challenges the SW champion to recreate the Russ-Jonson duel. I guess DA never son any due to the BoC...

[Drunkspleen]

FerociusBeast i appreciate all your statistica about the BoC performance against other weapons but you still forget the I1 rule of this weapon.

This is the main issue about the BoC.

 

Fluff wise the DA Champion should be the guy who challenges the SW champion to recreate the Russ-Jonson duel. I guess DA never son any due to the BoC...

 

He didn't forget the I1 rule, he specifically factored in that the Champion doesn't get to attack till after the other model.

[FerociousBeast]

Fluffwise, the Dark Angel champion and Space Wolf champion aren't going to be trying to kill each other with swords. But if they were, the Space Wolf would win 51% of the time and the Dark Angel would win 41% of the time.

 

(Not counting the infinite splitting of the 8% tie results... I don't know how to do that with math. Bad at calculus.)

 

@Drunkspleen. Interesting. Of course I can't really factor that in because the sergeant could have mitigating factors on his side as well.

[Upstartes]

My sense after reading all this is that the Champion armed with a Blade of Caliban is yet another unit in this codex that seems like it should be much better than it is, especially when compared to other similar units, yet on closer inspection, has a potential role to play in the army. Or, put another way, very disappointing but not actually crappy. There seem to be a few units like that it the codex, which makes me wonder if they were part of a conscious design philosophy or just the result of some last-minute play balancing attempts gone too far.

[Phoebus]

Fluffwise, the Dark Angel champion and Space Wolf champion aren't going to be trying to kill each other with swords. But if they were, the Space Wolf would win 51% of the time and the Dark Angel would win 41% of the time.

 

(Not counting the infinite splitting of the 8% tie results... I don't know how to do that with math. Bad at calculus.)

 

@Drunkspleen. Interesting. Of course I can't really factor that in because the sergeant could have mitigating factors on his side as well.

 

What would they be trying to kill each other with, then?  Some sort of melee weapon, surely?

[Plastic Rat]

Here's the big problem with the Champion..........there are no ablative wounds in the RWCS if you take a Champion upgrade, and with his weapon being unwieldy he needs ablative wounds to ensure that he makes it to his initiative step (outside of challenges of course). If the RWCS was bigger then the Apothecary, Standard Bearer and Champion could be protected by another 2 dudes, but that's a whole other can of worms

I think the Ravenwing Command Squad's sucky 3 bike limit is just another case of bad design like the Blade of Caliban. The OP's point is well made though. He's taking lemons and making orange juice from them. I salute you sir for your astute and well written observations as well as your positivity.

Doesn't change the fact that there are some glaring examples of straightforward lousy game design in the codex.

It's just like last codex where people suggested using Sammael as a bullet magnet or annoyance factor. Fair enough, it's a valid tactic, but I DON'T WANT my badass character I spent time building and painting so carefully to run around the board like the village idiot. The company champion should be able to do what he's supposed to do, pose at least some form of threat to enemy characters.

Fluffwise, the Dark Angel champion and Space Wolf champion aren't going to be trying to kill each other with swords. But if they were, the Space Wolf would win 51% of the time and the Dark Angel would win 41% of the time.

(Not counting the infinite splitting of the 8% tie results... I don't know how to do that with math. Bad at calculus.)

@Drunkspleen. Interesting. Of course I can't really factor that in because the sergeant could have mitigating factors on his side as well.

What would they be trying to kill each other with, then? Some sort of melee weapon, surely?

It's not a duel to the death.

[Phoebus]

Fair enough, but the point stands; what would they be dueling with, then?  Melee weapons, surely?  :)

[FerociousBeast]

Assuming the idea is to recreate the fight between the Lion and Russ, fists.

[Master Avoghai]

Here's the big problem with the Champion..........there are no ablative wounds in the RWCS if you take a Champion upgrade, and with his weapon being unwieldy he needs ablative wounds to ensure that he makes it to his initiative step (outside of challenges of course). If the RWCS was bigger then the Apothecary, Standard Bearer and Champion could be protected by another 2 dudes, but that's a whole other can of worms

I think the Ravenwing Command Squad's sucky 3 bike limit is just another case of bad design like the Blade of Caliban. The OP's point is well made though. He's taking lemons and making orange juice from them. I salute you sir for your astute and well written observations as well as your positivity.

Doesn't change the fact that there are some glaring examples of straightforward lousy game design in the codex.

It's just like last codex where people suggested using Sammael as a bullet magnet or annoyance factor. Fair enough, it's a valid tactic, but I DON'T WANT my badass character I spent time building and painting so carefully to run around the board like the village idiot. The company champion should be able to do what he's supposed to do, pose at least some form of threat to enemy characters.

Well I'm with FB on that point : you can't ask your 35pts champion to outclass an 100+ HQ... That's just unfair. Against such an opposition he' can only hope making a wound and survive one turn more but that's normal to see him die...

Against character such as vet sgt we see it's a 50-50 matter just like if he was a vet sgt him self... (and guess what? he costs the same price)... And still, like I started to think after reading and analyzing FB Replies and like Drunkspleen thought waaaaay much faster :D, you have to take into account the apothecary which increase the survivability of the Champion vs a vet sgt...

So finally, I find the analysis of FB pretty convincing, only cases where you'll be outclass will be when you face a vet sgt with Power sword, and still...

The limit of the reasonning is the RW biker but it's more due to the lack of squad members that could justify to throw this squadron into assault... Even without the upgrade I wouldn't do it...

Concerning the comparison vs LC I don't even think it's fair since the upgrade cost a lot more than the PW/ComChamp upgrade (30pts vs 15 IIRC)

[Phoebus]

Assuming the idea is to recreate the fight between the Lion and Russ, fists.

That was only one fight, though.

 

Three total instances of violence have been recorded between the Lion and the Wolf:

1. The most famous is the brawl they fought following the Lion slaying a tyrant that Russ had vowed to kill himself.

2. The second involved the Lion blaming Russ for slowing them down and not getting to Terra prior to the Emperor's final fight against Horus. Russ wouldn't fight back; the Lion stabbed him, regretted his decision, stood vigil over his brother's bed, and the two reconciled after Russ recovered.

3. The third, which was the only true duel, most definitely involved weapons and was called a draw after Russ took a sword to one of his hearts.

 

So I think there's quite the argument for duels to be fought with weapons - deactivated or not. ;)

[notmattlythgoe]

Assuming the idea is to recreate the fight between the Lion and Russ, fists.

That was only one fight, though.

Three total instances of violence have been recorded between the Lion and the Wolf:

1. The most famous is the brawl they fought following the Lion slaying a tyrant that Russ had vowed to kill himself.

2. The second involved the Lion blaming Russ for slowing them down and not getting to Terra prior to the Emperor's final fight against Horus. Russ wouldn't fight back; the Lion stabbed him, regretted his decision, stood vigil over his brother's bed, and the two reconciled after Russ recovered.

3. The third, which was the only true duel, most definitely involved weapons and was called a draw after Russ took a sword to one of his hearts.

So I think there's quite the argument for duels to be fought with weapons - deactivated or not.

I believe it is stated that the one that they do is a recreation of #1.

[Phoebus]

Well I'm with FB on that point : you can't ask your 35pts champion to outclass an 100+ HQ... That's just unfair. Against such an opposition he' can only hope making a wound and survive one turn more but that's normal to see him die...

Against character such as vet sgt we see it's a 50-50 matter just like if he was a vet sgt him self... (and guess what? he costs the same price)... And still, like I started to think after reading and analyzing FB Replies and like Drunkspleen thought waaaaay much faster , you have to take into account the apothecary which increase the survivability of the Champion vs a vet sgt...

Forget outclassing an HQ. What about being viable against a Codex or Blood Angels Champion? They also have Apothecaries. Beyond that, the "same cost for a Veteran Sergeant" argument depresses me for the same theme-based reasons offered earlier. He's the Champion. There should be a reason he's occupying that post and not just another squad leader. His odds against such a fighter should be better than 50-something percent.

I believe it is stated that the one that they do is a recreation of 1.

Fair point! Still, I'm more focused on what we would see on the battlefield. :)

[Brother Immolator]

I fail to see how Azrael will outperform a grot who avoids all of his attacks and kills him in return. It might not be very likely, but you don't seem to be interested in probability or my actual arguments, only what if scenarios.

 

First of all I would appreciate if you tone down the hostility (if I get this wrongly, I am sorry, text is a poor medium sometimes).

Second my posts are not what if scenarios but actual facts that you will face on the table top. At least I face them.

And third I havent received any answer to about three posts, so I feel you avoid my arguments.

 

So...I believe the above quotation is a rhetoric question yes?

[Master Avoghai]

Well I'm with FB on that point : you can't ask your 35pts champion to outclass an 100+ HQ... That's just unfair. Against such an opposition he' can only hope making a wound and survive one turn more but that's normal to see him die...

Against character such as vet sgt we see it's a 50-50 matter just like if he was a vet sgt him self... (and guess what? he costs the same price)... And still, like I started to think after reading and analyzing FB Replies and like Drunkspleen thought waaaaay much faster , you have to take into account the apothecary which increase the survivability of the Champion vs a vet sgt...

Forget outclassing an HQ. What about being viable against a Codex or Blood Angels Champion? They also have Apothecaries. Beyond that, the "same cost for a Veteran Sergeant" argument depresses me for the same theme-based reasons offered earlier. He's the Champion. There should be a reason he's occupying that post and not just another squad leader. His odds against such a fighter should be better than 50-something percent.

He IS viable against a BA-vanilla champion he has the same amount of chance against them hasn't he? And in this case it's a champion fighting a champion hence a normal 50-50 odds...

And the comparison vs a vet sgt... Well in this case, it should imply that you would be ok for paying more to get more. You cannot ask for doing more if you pay the same price.

If you are ok for paying more then you're out of the OP : Fb just explain why this 15pts option is as interesting as the 15pts option for getting a PW.

If you want more for the same price well... I also want DW knights with smite every turn for the same price...

[Brother Immolator]

Finally managed to enter the forum again.

 

I continue my earlier post though Phoebus has covered me more or less.

 

IMHO the 50-50 chance that both of them have [or even if the DA champ had more] to kill each other is completely irrelevant due to the fact that enemy model is swinging first. Thats the point I am arguing (and for some reason it doesn't get through). Whatever the chance it is if the champion is dead it doesn't matter since it wont use it. And that's the big problem of the weapon. And that's the reason nobody gives sarges axes. The is preforming better than the sword but nobody uses them because the axe doesn't get a chance to swing. And that gentlemen is not theory. Believe me all my sergeants had Power firsts since 4th edition and after my first games I realized that instant death is not worth it if you don't get the chance to swing, and that was the days without challenges.

 

To elaborate further, why did since the time mud was invented was the terminator sergeants came stock with a power weapon and not a fist? Because they wanted to balance the fact that the PFs are I1 and there had to  be a small chance that someone will manage to swing back,else the terminators had no hope against a squad totting power weapons (don't tell me about the 5 save please). But that's a throwback to another era anyways and I digress.

 

I is an important characteristic. I would be pro for the champion to have the blade if I was facing a DE army. Or a chaos one filled with Slaanesh marines.

But if we are speaking for all comers lists and not meta gaming (I.E. list tailoring) the power sword is the most optimal choice (bar me who prefer the power maul but thats another story) since you can gimb a decent armor range and strike at I. And thats the problem. The blade makes him a situational upgrade.

I would gladly cram him in a list vs the above armies since I would strike last anyway, but against anything else simply no.

 

BTW FerociousBeast, I have no personal beef I am just trying to express my opinion.

 

EDIT: Master Avoghai, he is not viable because his lack of I, means that he will use his chances to strike back only if he survives the first enemy round. He will strike last and given that there is a 50% chance he wont make it. 50% chance in warhammer is considered optimal to score a kill. Our champions 50% chance includes that huge IF. If that if turns out to be yes then he will most likely mop the floor with the enemy. But dead men really don't fight back.

[FerociousBeast]

Against a typical champion, armed with a power sword, combat shield, and WS5, the Dark Angel will do even worse than against the Vet Sergeant, because he won't be hitting on 3s anymore. He'll still be wounding on 3s, but he also now has the 6++ to contend with. So the DA champ won't often beat champs from other codexes.

 

HOWEVER, he will be more dangerous than other champs in most close combats when he's not fighting in a challenge.

 

Chance of UM Champion wounding with 1 attack: (same as Vet Sergeant) = 21% 

Chance of UM Champion wounding with 3 attacks: (same as Vet Sergeant) = 51%

Chance of DA Champion wounding with 1 attack: 1/2 x 2/3 x 5/6 = 10/36 = 28%

Chance of DA Champion wounding with 3 attacks: 1 - (1 - 0.28)^3 = 63%

 

Probability UM Champ wins round: 51%

Probability DA Champ wins round: 0.49 x 0.63 = 31%

Probability of another round: 18%

[FerociousBeast]

 

IMHO the 50-50 chance that both of them have [or even if the DA champ had more] to kill each other is completely irrelevant due to the fact that enemy model is swinging first. Thats the point I am arguing (and for some reason it doesn't get through).

 

It's not getting through because I've already factored that into the probability (which is less than 50%, actually) that the DA champ wins the combat. I'm not hostile towards you, but I do get impatient when I have to keep repeating myself due to being ignored.

[Brother Immolator]

I am not arguing statistics. I completely agree. I am arguing the fact that he wont even swing to use that chance. And that INV save. Honestly ask any black templar player. For dirt cheap they can use it army wide and nobody takes it.

Also sisters of battle, how many times where they saved by it? It is an off chance at best.

EDIT: And that 18% chance of probability of having a second round, seems to agree with me I think.

[Master Avoghai]

 

I am not arguing statistics. I completely agree. I am arguing the fact that he wont even swing to use that chance

But the statistics DO give you the chance he has to swing.

 

You talk about the inv save but the sgt may also miss roll to hits and roll to wound (both rolls are 4+ roll), it's not only a matter of succeeding or not the roll for the combat shield. The survivability of your champion does not rely only on its shield.

Fact is that if your champion is facing a vet sgt with Psword he has 41% chance to kill the sgt while the sgt has 51% to kill the champion. But if your squad contains an apo or the standard of courage the odds are in favour of the champion with 54 vs 36%.

 

So yes without an apothecary, your champion will die half of the time against a sgt without the chance to hit back... With an apothecary it's 1/3 of the time... You wonder if the champ will ever strike back, the stat tell you : 1/2 games without apo 2/3 with an apo.

 

 

 

Again, the argument of FBeast was NOT to proove that Company champion are BETTER than a vet sgt.

 

Since the release of the codex, we read lots of people saying that Champion is crap and they'd prefer have a sgt with power weapon for the same price.

 

FBeast just shows that a sgt with power weapon is EQUIVALENT to a vet sgt (not totally similar but he gains some he lose some). And that's luck because they're worth the same amount of points.

 

Now do GW should have made the champ +30pts with 4++ save and a AP2 weapon to better represent what we expect of a company champion? Maybe, but that's not the debate, and that was not his point.

 

The point was : Do the champ is worth 35pts? FB demonstrate that yes, he IS worth 35pts.