Primarch 1 on 1 tabletop tournament: How do they stack up?

[b1soul]

Anything is possible. If a sergeant with a powerfist rolls straight sixes and Curze rolls nothing but ones, Curze is gonna lose eventually. So, we can really only talk about the statistically expected outcome. They're all entirely ABLE to beat each other with the right dice rolls. The question is, what happens with -average- dice rolls?

It's a game of odds. I'm aware of that

[Lorenzen]

Angron statistically loses vs horus, fulgrim & morty..

Horus beats all 3 of them

Mort Loses to horus and fireblade fulgrim (slowly).. regular fulgrim goes on forever.. (fulgrim does .8 unsaved wounds a turn Mort does .5.. mort regens more via iwnd et etc)

 

Horus vs curze.. horus wins. Better sv better str.. averages more wounds per turn with either weapon.. best bet turn 1 use 5 attacks with the talon and 1 with worldbreaker causes 1.111 unsaved wounds with the talon and .3 unsaved wounds with breaker.. maths gets better for horus each turn.

 

Curze does .75 unsaved wounds in the 1st round.. maths gets worse for him each turn.

 

This is the case for pretty much all of them vs horus.. vs morty horus just has to worldbreaker him all day long and hell kill him, ferrus and vulkan take more work but will lose eventually.

 

Oh and always remember that ferrus has to use his grenade harness to not be init 1 charging through cover and vulkan is just flat out boned in that respect as he forgot to bring grenades. ;) Silly primarch!

[Terimus]

Angron statistically loses vs horus, fulgrim & morty..

Horus beats all 3 of them

Mort Loses to horus and fireblade fulgrim (slowly).. regular fulgrim goes on forever.. (fulgrim does .8 unsaved wounds a turn Mort does .5.. mort regens more via iwnd et etc)

Horus vs curze.. horus wins. Better sv better str.. averages more wounds per turn with either weapon.. best bet turn 1 use 5 attacks with the talon and 1 with worldbreaker causes 1.111 unsaved wounds with the talon and .3 unsaved wounds with breaker.. maths gets better for horus each turn.

Curze does .75 unsaved wounds in the 1st round.. maths gets worse for him each turn.

This is the case for pretty much all of them vs horus.. vs morty horus just has to worldbreaker him all day long and hell kill him, ferrus and vulkan take more work but will lose eventually.

Oh and always remember that ferrus has to use his grenade harness to not be init 1 charging through cover and vulkan is just flat out boned in that respect as he forgot to bring grenades. Silly primarch!

You guys keep talking averages, but you have to ralize its all about the dice, its like kitwulfen said, if he got lucky enough, a sergeant could kill a Primarch. Just because the math is better for Horus doesnt mean he's the best adn can never be defeated. I've beaten him with Curze and Vulkan. Vulkan has a much better chance at beating Horus than you'd think, Vulkan is always hitting at strength 10 with concussive, and sure, Horus can shrug the concussive off on a 3+, but jsut think about how many of your marines still go down with that 3+, he can mess that up and then Vulkan could hit first and smash the tar out of Horus before he can even swing his claw. And not to mention Vulkan re-rolls his It Will Not Die.

ANd of course it could go entirely the other way, but thats the thing, it can go either way, its not about math, its about the dice and chance. It can and will go either way regardless of how much math you calculate

[b1soul]

Just because the math is better for Horus doesnt mean he's the best adn can never be defeated

 

Except that no one is making that argument. We're all familiar with the concept of probability. If you have a 55% chance of beating someone, he as a 45% chance of beating you. It's not impossible for him to beat you. Yeah...we know

 

[Moonstalker]

Angron statistically loses vs horus, fulgrim & morty..

Horus beats all 3 of them

Mort Loses to horus and fireblade fulgrim (slowly).. regular fulgrim goes on forever.. (fulgrim does .8 unsaved wounds a turn Mort does .5.. mort regens more via iwnd et etc)

Horus vs curze.. horus wins. Better sv better str.. averages more wounds per turn with either weapon.. best bet turn 1 use 5 attacks with the talon and 1 with worldbreaker causes 1.111 unsaved wounds with the talon and .3 unsaved wounds with breaker.. maths gets better for horus each turn.

Curze does .75 unsaved wounds in the 1st round.. maths gets worse for him each turn.

This is the case for pretty much all of them vs horus.. vs morty horus just has to worldbreaker him all day long and hell kill him, ferrus and vulkan take more work but will lose eventually.

Oh and always remember that ferrus has to use his grenade harness to not be init 1 charging through cover and vulkan is just flat out boned in that respect as he forgot to bring grenades. Silly primarch!

You guys keep talking averages, but you have to ralize its all about the dice, its like kitwulfen said, if he got lucky enough, a sergeant could kill a Primarch. Just because the math is better for Horus doesnt mean he's the best adn can never be defeated. I've beaten him with Curze and Vulkan. Vulkan has a much better chance at beating Horus than you'd think, Vulkan is always hitting at strength 10 with concussive, and sure, Horus can shrug the concussive off on a 3+, but jsut think about how many of your marines still go down with that 3+, he can mess that up and then Vulkan could hit first and smash the tar out of Horus before he can even swing his claw. And not to mention Vulkan re-rolls his It Will Not Die.

ANd of course it could go entirely the other way, but thats the thing, it can go either way, its not about math, its about the dice and chance. It can and will go either way regardless of how much math you calculate

You took the exact opposite point that I was making. The only way to tell 'best' is by the math. Which primarch will kill which other primarch 9 times out of 10. Which one needs to roll averagely to win, which one will only win if you roll amazingly well. My point was that you having beaten other Primarchs with Curze on the tabletop is irrelevant. Anything can happen when you've got the dice in your hands. What we want to know is who is likely to win each matchup, and the only way we can do that is through math and averages.

[b1soul]

You took the exact opposite point that I was making.  The only way to tell 'best' is by the math.  Which primarch will kill which other primarch 9 times out of 10.  Which one needs to roll averagely to win, which one will only win if you roll amazingly well.  My point was that you having beaten other Primarchs with Curze on the tabletop is irrelevant.  Anything can happen when you've got the dice in your hands.  What we want to know is who is likely to win each matchup, and the only way we can do that is through math and averages.

 

Yes...and we all know tabletop isn't lore and that any primarch has a chance of beating any other primarch

 

Tabletop stats are just fun to analyse. I don't take it too seriously but it's interesting to see how game designers view the primarchs

[Lorenzen]

This whole thread is about statistics and probability.. its not about how jimbob rolled his dice that one time.

 

If you cant understand that go jump out of a plane without a parachute... because probability doesnt matter you can beat those 1 in a billion odds and survive.. ill see you on the ground...

[b1soul]

This whole thread is about statistics and probability.. its not about how jimbob rolled his dice that one time.

 

If you cant understand that go jump out of a plane without a parachute... because probability doesnt matter you can beat those 1 in a billion odds and survive.. ill see you on the ground...

 

I think some ppl are just assuming that other ppl dont understand probability

[Terimus]

I didn't mean to seem like I was saying that you guys don't understand, all I was trying to say is that what probability says and what the dice rolls can be completely different. Its pretty obvious that Horus is most likely the best primarch stats, abilities, and wargear wise, all I was trying to say is that just because of that doesn't mean he will hands-down win a 1 on 1 Primarch tournament (which is what I assumed this was about, considering the name of this thread)  Wasn't trying to make people angry, just to say that the dice are fickle 

[b1soul]

I didn't mean to seem like I was saying that you guys don't understand, all I was trying to say is that what probability says and what the dice rolls can be completely different. Its pretty obvious that Horus is most likely the best primarch stats, abilities, and wargear wise, all I was trying to say is that just because of that doesn't mean he will hands-down win a 1 on 1 Primarch tournament (which is what I assumed this was about, considering the name of this thread)  Wasn't trying to make people angry, just to say that the dice are fickle 

 

Well, this whole thread is an exercise in mathhammer really

 

Curze, Lorgar, Mortarion, any primarch could roll well against Horus. We're just interested in who has a higher chance of winning. Neither are we going to draw fluff conclusions based on tabletop rules. We're just having a bit of fun with the numbers

[marshal seanisi]

Math is an exact science.  Odds and Dice rolls are not. However 99.99%  of the time Horus Wins! bad dice good dice the odds are stacked in his favor.

[Prodigal Son of Magnus]

One thing I've found doing some testing is how good Curze is, the extra attacks from hit and run and his shooting attacks really helps him get the edge on most of the primarchs.

[Terimus]

One thing I've found doing some testing is how good Curze is, the extra attacks from hit and run and his shooting attacks really helps him get the edge on most of the primarchs.

And from how I understand it, because of the Night Lords special rule called Talent for Murder, it counts him (as a bulky model) as "outnumbering his opponent regardless if his opponent is bulky or not, and therefore gains a +1 on his to wound rolls, which combined with having the Shred re-rolls on him is lethal as I'll get out

[Lorenzen]

None of the primarchs have the legion astartes rule btw.. they have sire of the ... instead

 

So dont get the legion rules

[AfroCampbell]

^ as far as the comments about probability above, let me clarify for those who are yapping (I havent yet been part of this thread). Probabilities occur over a population. this means that it applies as a generalised comment. this doesnt mean that the results are not real because they do not necessarily follow for an individual battle. The probability is the chance of an outcome in an independent event. This means that no Primarch is useless and has no CHANCE against another, and also means none is gonna win every fight. The probability dictates the LIKELIHOOD of an event occuring. So there are Primarchs with a greater chance of winning. 

 

Just clearing up definitions.

[b1soul]

 This means that no Primarch is useless and has no CHANCE against another, and also means none is gonna win every fight. The probability dictates the LIKELIHOOD of an event occuring. So there are Primarchs with a greater chance of winning. 

 

You mean a 55% chance of winning is a 55% chance of winning and not a 100 percent chance of winning? 

 

Thank you for sharing, Captain Obvious

 

http://data1.whicdn.com/images/11305030/large.jpg

[Molokai]

Name calling is not tolerated on these forums b1soul. You're out of line.

[b1soul]

Name calling is not tolerated on these forums b1soul. You're out of line.

 

Saying someone is Captain Obvious when he states something obvious is considered name-calling? If so I apologise...but the rule would seem to be overprotective

[WGXH]

Somebody brought up an excellent point about Lorgar earlier. I don't think Horus can shrug off Invisibility becuase it's not a debuff on him- rather, it's a buff on Lorgar. Lorgar Ascended gets any 3 psychic powers from Telepathy and Telekinesis, and gets those rerolls too. The enemy Primarch nearly always will WS1, and as such hitting on 5's, and Lorgar in turn on threes. If he manages to get Objuration Mechanicum on another Primarch(aside from Horus who has a 3+/Vulkan who gets rerolls, I think all thus far are Adamantium Will non-psykers, so a 5+- 66% of the time it should go off, and even then half of those hits must be rerolled.

 

I don't think he should be discounted so easily. It'll be funny to see how powerful they make Magnus with regards to Psychic Powers with Lorgar already set so high as a standard- and with Deny the Witch about and all Primarchs having Adamantium Will, the strategy of MIND BULLETS won't cut it for the big red fella, I reckon.

[b1soul]

Somebody brought up an excellent point about Lorgar earlier. I don't think Horus can shrug off Invisibility becuase it's not a debuff on him- rather, it's a buff on Lorgar. Lorgar Ascended gets any 3 psychic powers from Telepathy and Telekinesis, and gets those rerolls too. The enemy Primarch nearly always will WS1, and as such hitting on 5's, and Lorgar in turn on threes. If he manages to get Objuration Mechanicum on another Primarch(aside from Horus who has a 3+/Vulkan who gets rerolls, I think all thus far are Adamantium Will non-psykers, so a 5+- 66% of the time it should go off, and even then half of those hits must be rerolled.

 

I don't think he should be discounted so easily. It'll be funny to see how powerful they make Magnus with regards to Psychic Powers with Lorgar already set so high as a standard- and with Deny the Witch about and all Primarchs having Adamantium Will, the strategy of MIND BULLETS won't cut it for the big red fella, I reckon.

 

Yes I really like how Logar Transfigured reflects his "upgrade" in the fluff. He's definitely the second most powerful psyker among the primarchs as of the most recent HH fluff

[AfroCampbell]

 

 This means that no Primarch is useless and has no CHANCE against another, and also means none is gonna win every fight. The probability dictates the LIKELIHOOD of an event occuring. So there are Primarchs with a greater chance of winning. 

 

You mean a 55% chance of winning is a 55% chance of winning and not a 100 percent chance of winning? 

 

Thank you for sharing, Captain Obvious

 

LOL i know it was obvious, but clearly many didnt take maths at school with some of the statements made. wanted to clear up the definitions.

[b1soul]

 

 

LOL i know it was obvious, but clearly many didnt take maths at school with some of the statements made. wanted to clear up the definitions.

 

OK...well, thanks for contributing. I hope by now the issue of probability has been resolved. We've sort of been beating a dead horse. 

[Moonstalker]

Somebody brought up an excellent point about Lorgar earlier. I don't think Horus can shrug off Invisibility becuase it's not a debuff on him- rather, it's a buff on Lorgar. Lorgar Ascended gets any 3 psychic powers from Telepathy and Telekinesis, and gets those rerolls too. The enemy Primarch nearly always will WS1, and as such hitting on 5's, and Lorgar in turn on threes. If he manages to get Objuration Mechanicum on another Primarch(aside from Horus who has a 3+/Vulkan who gets rerolls, I think all thus far are Adamantium Will non-psykers, so a 5+- 66% of the time it should go off, and even then half of those hits must be rerolled.

 

I don't think he should be discounted so easily. It'll be funny to see how powerful they make Magnus with regards to Psychic Powers with Lorgar already set so high as a standard- and with Deny the Witch about and all Primarchs having Adamantium Will, the strategy of MIND BULLETS won't cut it for the big red fella, I reckon.

 

He can't use his 3+ to stop the cast via Deny the Witch, but when he gets into melee with Lorgar he can ignore the modification to WS1, as that is an adverse affect on his characteristic profile.

 

I wouldn't discount him, as it's largely just Horus who can withstand his psychic trickery.  All the other Primarchs would struggle vs the Invis/Terrify combo.  Vulkan and Mortarion could at least largely nullify the Terrify casts because of their anti-psycher bonuses.

[Honda]

Just a quick reminder gentlemen and /gentle ladies to keep the discussion civil.

 

There's a whole lot of discussion about "what if" stuff and there's nothing wrong with that, but since there is no way to come to a definitive conclusion, then this pretty much comes down to preferences and opinions.

 

So let's discuss nicely and enjoy the diversity of opinion. :)

[Ishagu]

I'm reading the Horus rules... And technically the serpent's scale works against wounds unless it has been FAQ'd... This makes Horus almost impossible to kill as he has a 3+ ignore negative effect after he fails an armour or invul save...