Annual Investor Report 2021-2022

[TheVoidDragon]

For some reason I was under the impression they tend to hint at upcoming stuff in this sort of thing (New games being worked on, new army etc Surprised there was no mention that i can see of The Old World at least), is that not the case?

[Skywrath]

1 hour ago, caladancid said:

Yeah I can see how the “global paper shortage” is causing them to price 150 page ebooks at 17 USD. Digital paper is crazy hard to find these days. 

Take my upvote sir. 

Personally, I don't care if their sales have gone down by whatever the percentage is, they overprice everything significantly, so even if they lose some profit, their main profit margin is still is net positive. Here's hoping their current predicament with Brexit, shortages etc makes them rethink their pricing scheme to be more reasonable, otherwise they might see their profit margins actually fall into the net negative, god forbid, oh no (!)) - (italics denoting sarcasm). I think they would find if they reduce their pricing further to an already niche type of entertainment, then in the next report they will be harping on about their thrice-blasted profits until kingdom come - almost like some of us been suggesting the above idea for the last decade or so!

[Captain Idaho]

Not going to discuss the big business topics in a broader, economic sense, but maybe Black Library sales are down because the core background they're working from isn't popular?

I mean, it's the most obvious answer instead of GW looking for excuses like paper shortages (which doesn't hurt the digital model at all), global economy etc.

Because, if the economy is slowing down and there are shortages... why do their models still see profits rising in comparison?

It's like when a Marvel film tanks and then a bunch of excuses start trending - maybe the fans just don't like it?

[WrathOfTheLion]

I'm thinking what is (or rather what isn't) coming out is not insignificant in impact, just glancing at the coming soon section has it quite sparse as compared to last year for example.

Anecdotally for me, there's also less coming out that interests me, so I wonder if that has something to do with it as well.

Edited July 26, 2022 by WrathOfTheLion

[TheVoidDragon]

7 minutes ago, Captain Idaho said:

Not going to discuss the big business topics in a broader, economic sense, but maybe Black Library sales are down because the core background they're working from isn't popular?

I mean, it's the most obvious answer instead of GW looking for excuses like paper shortages (which doesn't hurt the digital model at all), global economy etc.

Because, if the economy is slowing down and there are shortages... why do their models still see profits rising in comparison?

It's like when a Marvel film tanks and then a bunch of excuses start trending - maybe the fans just don't like it?

I don't see why this would be the case when there's not one big story?

[phandaal]

12 minutes ago, TheVoidDragon said:

I don't see why this would be the case when there's not one big story?

There is one big story. The new stuff is written following certain story arcs. That is true for 30k and 40k.

Black Library also includes stories from AoS. No idea if that follows a dedicated arc though.

[TheVoidDragon]

3 minutes ago, phandaal said:

There is one big story. The new stuff is written following certain story arcs. That is true for 30k and 40k.

Black Library also includes stories from AoS. No idea if that follows a dedicated arc though.

Obivously Horus Heresy is a story for the most part, but with 40k Is that not just primarily the Dawn of Fire series that's the big story arc though?

[Matcap86]

There's 2/3 narrative universes where several stories are being told. Can't really call it one big story.

Edited July 26, 2022 by matcap86

[Scribe]

42 minutes ago, Dark Shepherd said:

If I had to guess re Black Library Id say piracy is hitting them hard, and also 3rd party sales margins. Plus authors leaving and some negative press

I cannot tell you how many books I've missed out on, due to BL stock issues.

Can't make money, if people can't buy your product.

[Captain Idaho]

Maybe folk don't like the direction of the background of current 40K? Maybe the sandbox we could play in was most popular and building on that was more enjoyable than moving the story on all the time?

Saying it isn't one story is a little misleading. The themes are common and not necessarily to everyone's tastes. Although it's not outright proof, it is a leading piece of evidence that the money talks - if business is down in the area that should make the most profit due to digital reducing overheads, then maybe it's not someone else's fault...

[phandaal]

5 minutes ago, Captain Idaho said:

Maybe folk don't like the direction of the background of current 40K? Maybe the sandbox we could play in was most popular and building on that was more enjoyable than moving the story on all the time?

Saying it isn't one story is a little misleading. The themes are common and not necessarily to everyone's tastes. Although it's not outright proof, it is a leading piece of evidence that the money talks - if business is down in the area that should make the most profit due to digital reducing overheads, then maybe it's not someone else's fault...

Yeah, this is what I was going to say. What does or does not constitute a single big story is a great recipe for an endless Internet Argument, but that is irrelevant because a single big story is actually not a requirement for people to lose interest in a setting.

40k does have a new setting in which new stories are set, so that new setting could indeed cause lower sales if people do not want to read those stories.

[Petitioner's City]

BL Piracy is also likely huge - ebooks go live and instantly are shared for free on various sites. While many people who download them might not have been likely to buy an actual book, I'm sure some would, and either decide not to do, or fall into a habit of not doing so?

[Daimyo-Phaeron Lenoch]

7 hours ago, Ubiquitous1984 said:

[snip]

By my calculations all of the special edition and limited edition BL releases in the 12 month reporting period, equate to £1,080,000 in total sales. So almost 2/3 of total BL revenue is generated by their limited releases. This shows how small the print runs (and correspondingly, sales) must be for their basic hardback and paperback releases.

I absolutely would have bought more BL this last FY if there had been an easier way to get physical copies of TDK. But my local retailers were just like ‘sorry, we’re all out and can’t get more.’

[System Sound]

29 minutes ago, Petitioner's City said:

BL Piracy is also likely huge - ebooks go live and instantly are shared for free on various sites. While many people who download them might not have been likely to buy an actual book, I'm sure some would, and either decide not to do, or fall into a habit of not doing so?

Two telegram groups that i know of, are well over 4k members. Now how many of them are there for rulebooks or novels is a better question.

[Mechanicus Tech-Support]

Just waiting patiently for N1SB's breakdown

 

[twiglets]

This is going to sound like I'm huffing copium. 

But I think that 1.6 million pound total revenue for all of BL including physical, audio, and digital is wrong somehow, or not including everything.

It just doesnt really match up with what I'm seeing on websites like Audible.

Edited July 26, 2022 by twiglets

[No Foes Remain]

59 minutes ago, Daimyo-Phaeron Lenoch said:

I absolutely would have bought more BL this last FY if there had been an easier way to get physical copies of TDK. But my local retailers were just like ‘sorry, we’re all out and can’t get more.’

100% with you on that. A few books I asked for Christmas and birthday my parents couldn't get because no-one could get them in stock.

[skylerboodie]

Whilst I do have some sympathy for the paper/printing and distribution issues which may or may not be the cause of the seriously reduced print runs of late, for me the biggest issue is entirely of BL's own making and that is the appalling (lack of) communication with readers. Not just the incomplete, slow, and silent Coming Soon page updates and the lack of decent community support - though the recent Thursday articles are definitely a welcome improvement - but just the general disdain they seem to have for the readership, compared to the treatment the miniatures side gets. 

For example, 

- printing first books in a series in special editions then not the followups (they said at a BL Live event pre covid that they'd stop doing that, and went back and redid ~3 'sequels' in matching editions - which sold out instantly - but then stopped);

- canceling series such as Rise of the Ynnari; Carcharadons, Iron Hands, Knightsblade series still due third books - planned?

- giving no information about the approx scope of series, eg: is Dawn of Fire a six book series? Twelve? Fifty-four?? so people know what they're 'signing up to'

- any form of honest communication on the delays/issues they're experiencing and that we can expect

- the erratic release schedules mentioned in previous posts whereby they release multiple titles or special editions in the same week and then nothing on others

- disappearance of audio dramas and other stories previously announced (Cypher boxset, Sabbathiel novel, Thomas Parrot's buried Master of Shadows, etc)

- the way they didn't handle the author reveals for final Siege novels (& release dates still), could've done years earlier and been exciting news, rather than just process of elimination etc 

- most new books being revealed via Amazon, Fnac, Simon & Schuster rather than BL announcing in good order

- the author 'interview' articles that are about three questions long and all of them bland and uninsightful

Basically, they are in desperate need for a dedicated BL marketer promoting and communicating their products, but it just feels like they don't even care. Which is such a shame. 

[Sothalor]

24 minutes ago, twiglets said:

This is going to sound like I'm huffing copium. 

But I think that 1.6 million pound total revenue for all of BL including physical, audio, and digital is wrong somehow, or not including everything.

It just doesnt really match up with what I'm seeing on websites like Audible.

I don't think you're wrong. From pages 19 & 20 of the report:

Looking at it, the 1.6 million figure for Black Library is from their Trade segmented revenue breakdown - "Trade: this sales channel sells globally to independent retailers, agents and distributors. It also includes the Group’s magazine newsstand business and the distributor sales from the Group’s publishing business (Black Library)."

That is, that's how much BL brought in from sales to distributor (think bookstore chains like Barnes & Noble in the US).

Then you look at the Online revenue breakdown - "Online: this includes sales through the Group’s global web stores, our online subscription service (Warhammer+) and digital sales through external affiliates."

If I'm understanding this correctly, anything bought through the GW web store, the Forge World site, and digital purchases from the Black Library site would fall under the Online category.

The Digital revenue comes out to 12.4 million. Obviously, not all of that are BL sales, but consider that the vast majority of new physical book releases and all special and limited editions must go through the GW web store.

 

Caveat: I am not a financial advisor, analyst, or even anything remotely resembling somebody proficient in this jargon/breaking down corporate revenue streams. If I'm wrong, please correct me; I'd love to learn!

[Matcap86]

I think the poor communication, inability to keep stock up, and international trade woes are a more likely reason for the dip, not necessary a "people just don't like the modern 40k narrative anymore". There are relatively few modern timeline books coming out compared to more general 40k/aos.

I also feel there's also been a bit of a dip in BL releases last year? But that might just be me.

[Red_Shift]

BL has had a really sparse release schedule in the last couple of years and they seem to have lost a lot of regular authors. I also suspect they have found it hard to get anyone to write for AoS, the releases there are few and far between and quite disjointed. 
 

Im kind of amazed that the figures overall aren’t worst than they are though, I got the impression that the new edition of AoS flopped bad. I don’t think Warhammer tv took off either, given the repeated promotions to try to get subscribers and the implied excess of subscriber only models with the recent Warhammer community article. 
 

I think between BL picking up steam again, the Horus Heresy box and the upcoming Votaan things will be looking up going forward assuming consumer spending doesn’t nosedive.

[Isengrin]

17 minutes ago, Mechanicus Tech-Support said:

Just waiting patiently for N1SB's breakdown

 

Me too, I can't wait to read his breakdown.

I've found two figures interesting. GW increased their inventory significantly which is not surprising given the current supply chain disruptions and issues with raw material purchasing. Going from 27.5 to 38.5 millions is significant nonetheless. That Brexit alone has added additional supply chain costs of 3.4 millions is nothing to sneeze at either. Their line about looking forward to the promised benefits of Brexit was pretty funny to be perfectly honest.

Re: Black Library. There is currently so much going on at the moment, it's not only paper shortages that would seriously interfere with release cycles and distribution. Increasing costs for materials, warehousing, staffing, overwhelmed logistics providers, shipping port congestion all over the world, being forced to switch from ship to air freight in some cases (which is expensive) or having to do it the other way around (which takes a lot longer). It may sound easy to just print some books and ship them around but it isn't.

[TheVoidDragon]

5 minutes ago, Red_Shift said:

BL has had a really sparse release schedule in the last couple of years and they seem to have lost a lot of regular authors. I also suspect they have found it hard to get anyone to write for AoS, the releases there are few and far between and quite disjointed. 
 

Im kind of amazed that the figures overall aren’t worst than they are though, I got the impression that the new edition of AoS flopped bad. I don’t think Warhammer tv took off either, given the repeated promotions to try to get subscribers and the implied excess of subscriber only models with the recent Warhammer community article. 
 

I think between BL picking up steam again, the Horus Heresy box and the upcoming Votaan things will be looking up going forward assuming consumer spending doesn’t nosedive.

I don't follow novel stuff too closely, what authors are no longer working with them?

[caladancid]

1 hour ago, Petitioner's City said:

BL Piracy is also likely huge - ebooks go live and instantly are shared for free on various sites. While many people who download them might not have been likely to buy an actual book, I'm sure some would, and either decide not to do, or fall into a habit of not doing so?

You know what’s interesting about the piracy theory is other book publishers don’t seem to be as impacted or care as much as BL (or as much as people on the forum think they care). 
 

I’ve not only never seen more mainstream publishers give that as a reason to not do eBooks, but maybe more importantly Aconyte (which does L5R, Arkham Horror, Marvel, Terrinoth setting and has Josh Reynolds, David Annandale, and Robbie MacNiven among others) doesn’t seem to care either. They release all books in multiple formats, and they go for 10 USD ebooks.  

[WrathOfTheLion]

2 hours ago, Captain Idaho said:

Maybe folk don't like the direction of the background of current 40K? Maybe the sandbox we could play in was most popular and building on that was more enjoyable than moving the story on all the time?

Saying it isn't one story is a little misleading. The themes are common and not necessarily to everyone's tastes. Although it's not outright proof, it is a leading piece of evidence that the money talks - if business is down in the area that should make the most profit due to digital reducing overheads, then maybe it's not someone else's fault...

Could be possible, but I don't think that would be the factor here, given the change is between last year and this year, and both are years of the current background.