Annual Investor Report 2021-2022

[Captain Idaho]

GW and BL were never good at promoting their novels compared to now! They do far more nowadays than they ever used and yet there was interest in years previous. Why isn't the interest all of a sudden not there anymore without the company hitting everyone over the head saying "buy this new book!" when fans would buy novels of their favourite factions without prompting in the past?

What's changed?

The simple answer is the fans aren't interested like they used to. In the Ultramarines forum of this site, the novels used to sell themselves. Frater would buy and review everything GW produced about the background of the Ultramarines. 

Now? People don't care anymore, there's less engagement and less interest or even comments on such subjects posted there.

[Felix Antipodes]

5 minutes ago, EnsignJoker said:

Series like Gaunts Ghosts and The Last Chancers aren’t as prevalent anymore either. Most of the books now are about an existing character like Ahriman, Helbrecht, Fabius, Guilliman etc, or the Heresy/SoT. The old military fiction type books with focus on units rather than god like characters is something severely lacking in this current BL generation IMO. 

Which is probably closer to the mark wrt the possible drop in sales.  There are almost none of the traditional subject settings (Imperial Guard, Eldar, etc) in recent years, so BL is no longer catering to those who prefer those settings.  

Maybe it’s a case of be careful what you wish for as there has been constant calls for less bolter porn and less UM, there are other Chapters, etc.

[Matcap86]

20 minutes ago, Captain Idaho said:

GW and BL were never good at promoting their novels compared to now! They do far more nowadays than they ever used and yet there was interest in years previous. Why isn't the interest all of a sudden not there anymore without the company hitting everyone over the head saying "buy this new book!" when fans would buy novels of their favourite factions without prompting in the past?

What's changed?

The simple answer is the fans aren't interested like they used to. In the Ultramarines forum of this site, the novels used to sell themselves. Frater would buy and review everything GW produced about the background of the Ultramarines. 

Now? People don't care anymore, there's less engagement and less interest or even comments on such subjects posted there.

You re-iterating your opinion repeatedly doesn't make it fact.

Fraters here give plenty of reasons why numbers are down (including that those numbers might be misinterpreted/split up in a confusing manner for laypersons) and you dismiss them all because "People just don't like the story anymore".

[Halandaar]

18 hours ago, caladancid said:

We are discussing the very real plummeting sales of Black Library. Your excuse for them was global paper shortage. I am pointing out that GW has made choices that are likely more responsible, and that they are fully able to fix. 

I mean the report specifically states that digital sales have grown, but sure, it's clearly eBook pricing that's caused a drop in revenue.

[Matcap86]

44 minutes ago, EnsignJoker said:

Series like Gaunts Ghosts and The Last Chancers aren’t as prevalent anymore either. Most of the books now are about an existing character like Ahriman, Helbrecht, Fabius, Guilliman etc, or the Heresy/SoT. The old military fiction type books with focus on units rather than god like characters is something severely lacking in this current BL generation IMO. 

29 minutes ago, Felix Antipodes said:

Which is probably closer to the mark wrt the possible drop in sales.  There are almost none of the traditional subject settings (Imperial Guard, Eldar, etc) in recent years, so BL is no longer catering to those who prefer those settings.  

Maybe it’s a case of be careful what you wish for as there has been constant calls for less bolter porn and less UM, there are other Chapters, etc.

There's been quite a bit of Imperial guard releases though? Volpone Glory, several Gaunt's Ghosts novels, Severina Raine, Steel Tread, Catachan Devil, Ciaphas Cain, Krieg, Mina Lesk (Cadia) series have all had releases in the last year maybe 2. 

Edited July 27, 2022 by matcap86

[Captain Idaho]

32 minutes ago, matcap86 said:

You re-iterating your opinion repeatedly doesn't make it fact.

Fraters here give plenty of reasons why numbers are down (including that those numbers might be misinterpreted/split up in a confusing manner for laypersons) and you dismiss them all because "People just don't like the story anymore".

You're misrepresenting my post. I responded fairly to what other people have said in a friendly discussion. We don't have to agree and that doesn't make the discussion bad.

As an example, one of the reasons you've pointed out that people have said in response to mine was numbers are down due to BL and GW not promoting or engaging with the community.

I responded, in good faith that we are having a discussion about it, that in the past the company never promoted or engaged with the community or customer base by any meaningful standard in the past yet the books were popular and sales grew.

If you'd like to not discuss the matter that's cool. The simple answer to that is to move onto another topic. I know I will when the topic is no longer something I want to engage in. 

[Emperor Ming]

Curious if there's nothing about warhammer+

[Matcap86]

1 hour ago, Captain Idaho said:

You're misrepresenting my post. I responded fairly to what other people have said in a friendly discussion. We don't have to agree and that doesn't make the discussion bad.

As an example, one of the reasons you've pointed out that people have said in response to mine was numbers are down due to BL and GW not promoting or engaging with the community.

I responded, in good faith that we are having a discussion about it, that in the past the company never promoted or engaged with the community or customer base by any meaningful standard in the past yet the books were popular and sales grew.

If you'd like to not discuss the matter that's cool. The simple answer to that is to move onto another topic. I know I will when the topic is no longer something I want to engage in. 

Not sure what you're implying by saying I should move on to another topic..? 

I was responding to your point that according to you:

2 hours ago, Captain Idaho said:

What's changed?

The simple answer is the fans aren't interested like they used to. In the Ultramarines forum of this site, the novels used to sell themselves. Frater would buy and review everything GW produced about the background of the Ultramarines. 

Now? People don't care anymore, there's less engagement and less interest or even comments on such subjects posted there.

This is based in nothing more than your opinion and the amount of posts (apparently?) on this forum.

That you compare BL's earlier promotion levels with todays and see that they have improved is indeed an argument for that part to be less relevant as a reason for diminishing sales, but the conclusion you arrive at that therefore people just don't like GW's stories anymore is a non sequitur.

It also ignores several of the other points other fraters made (i.e. international trade troubles, rising costs, internal issues with authors, the fact that numbers are maybe presented in a less obvious way, etc.)

That's what I was pointing out, which also doesn't make the discussion bad, it's just part of the discussion. 

[ThePenitentOne]

In my life, I think I've purchased 7 BL novels. Two this year, two over the course of 8th and three (Eisenhorn!) prior to 8th.

[Captain Idaho]

Companies always blame everything else but their own failings generally and I didn't ignore the other aspects - if BL trade is down due to brexity, for example, then why is that not affecting miniatures? I've addressed those things by pointing out the discrepancies in the logic.

I don't accept those sorts of excuses as reasons for the BL side of the company to be struggling because that is the side that deals purely with IP so the operating costs should be lower than their models.

Same goes for things like Marvel and other franchise flops. (Individual films not the entire franchise) The real reason for an IP to flop is because there wasn't the interest in it, generally. Advertising and promotion does play its part as do other aspect, but as I've pointed out; these things aren't hurting other sides of the business and never impacted sales previously. So it looks like an excuse at that point.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Captain Idaho

[Wugo_Heaving]

I don't quite understand all these mental gymnastics that people are doing here to try and work out what's going on with Black Library, when it's literally just trashy, niche, sci-fi novels.

Incidentally, BL haven't seemed very professional as a "publisher" to me. I remember a year or two ago there was an an attempt to entice potential writers, inviting them to submit an outline for a story along with a writing example of a few thousand words, yet there was no mention anywhere as to who would then own that submitted material, and what the outcome of submitting it would be. It was neither an informal competition with clear rules and outcomes,  or a formal submission supported with any accompanying small print and agreements. It came across as "Idk, send us free ideas lol" which is pretty shocking.

 

[Isengrin]

1 hour ago, Captain Idaho said:

Companies always blame everything else but their own failings generally and I didn't ignore the other aspects - if BL trade is down due to brexity, for example, then why is that not affecting miniatures? I've addressed those things by pointing out the discrepancies in the logic.

I don't accept those sorts of excuses as reasons for the BL side of the company to be struggling because that is the side that deals purely with IP so the operating costs should be lower than their models.

Same goes for things like Marvel and other franchise flops. The real reason for an IP to flop is because there wasn't the interest in it, generally. Advertising and promotion does play its part as do other aspect, but as I've pointed out; these things aren't hurting other sides of the business and never impacted sales previously. So it looks like an excuse at that point.

Brexit is affecting the one business unit responsible for the production of miniatures, which is manufacturing and supply chain. I've pointed out in my comment that Brexit has caused significant additional costs. That obviously doesn't mean sales are down but it does have an impact and together with other supply chain issues is responsible for repercussions through the whole value-added chain. Additionally, trade is only one of three distribution channels and a) Digital has increased by 2.6 million pounds and b) I would bet that GW has prioritized keeping their own warehouse inventory above safety stock levels at all times at the cost of losing sales at independent retailers, especially in a volatile environment such as 2021/22, and it could have been hedging against possible Brexit consequences, too. Looking at their balance sheet doesn't really allow a statement on the health of BL sales and its outlook, there is simply too much noise and other (heavily contributing) factors are at work.

57 minutes ago, Wugo_Heaving said:

I don't quite understand all these mental gymnastics that people are doing here to try and work out what's going on with Black Library, when it's literally just trashy, niche, sci-fi novels.

Incidentally, BL haven't seemed very professional as a "publisher" to me. I remember a year or two ago there was an an attempt to entice potential writers, inviting them to submit an outline for a story along with a writing example of a few thousand words, yet there was no mention anywhere as to who would then own that submitted material, and what the outcome of submitting it would be. It was neither an informal competition with clear rules and outcomes,  or a formal submission supported with any accompanying small print and agreements. It came across as "Idk, send us free ideas lol" which is pretty shocking.

 

I could be mistaken but wasn't Jake Ozga, one of the main guys behind Ex Profundis, picked up by BL after the contest? I remember that he wrote on Twitter about sending a submission to BL somewhere around 2019. It required a 500 word sample, one paragraph summary, and short character bios, not several thousand words as you are wrongly claiming. You are needlessly exaggerating to make a dubious argument and your conclusion is a bit petty.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Isengrin

[spessmarine]

feels a bit weird to draw conclusions about what the readers like or don't like without more info, like, you need more details

for example, FY 2021-2022 had only one HH main novel (Warhawk), maybe that caused a bit of a drop, it could also not be the cause
maybe it is true Dawn of Fire isn't fire on the charts, it could also not be the cause
and so forth

[Inquisitor_Lensoven]

14 hours ago, matcap86 said:

There's been quite a bit of Imperial guard releases though? Volpone Glory, several Gaunt's Ghosts novels, Severina Raine, Steel Tread, Catachan Devil, Ciaphas Cain, Krieg, Mina Lesk (Cadia) series have all had releases in the last year maybe 2. 

Honestly BL has not caught my attention with much of any thing new. How many of those books create relatable, lovable, but most importantly new characters?

i love BA but the Mephiston book bored me and I never finished it, same for the astorath book. In fact I was not only bored with that one but rather annoyed reading it. One of the primaris marines in it was just a whiny little turd which I don’t think fits in with anyone’s idea of what a space marine is.

at this point im only interested in books by Dan abnett.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Inquisitor_Lensoven

[Lord_Ikka]

It is interesting to read their investor report, gives a look into some of the areas that are good or may need work in a broad sense. The licensing bit caught my eye- does anyone know what games were released in the past year/are earning a lot for it to increase as much as it did?

[Felix Antipodes]

15 hours ago, matcap86 said:

There's been quite a bit of Imperial guard releases though? Volpone Glory, several Gaunt's Ghosts novels, Severina Raine, Steel Tread, Catachan Devil, Ciaphas Cain, Krieg, Mina Lesk (Cadia) series have all had releases in the last year maybe 2. 

Sorry, I should have been a bit clearer.  I consider the Abnettverse books and their tie-ins like Volpone Glory and the varied Commissar series (Cain, Raine) as their own traditional story streams separate from the (mainly) one off novels of the past.

Once you take my own idiosyncratic cataloging out of it there were a few released 

[twiglets]

41 minutes ago, Lord_Ikka said:

It is interesting to read their investor report, gives a look into some of the areas that are good or may need work in a broad sense. The licensing bit caught my eye- does anyone know what games were released in the past year/are earning a lot for it to increase as much as it did?

Chaos gate:Daemon hunters, 40k: lost crusade, and total warhammer 3 were the major ones. Necromunda might have just been inside that window too.

 

I went and looked up the licensing revenue from when Total Warhammer 2 came out, 9 million pound vs 27 million pound now.

I think that suggests that the mobile game lost crusade might have earned them a lot of that 27 million because chaos gate isn't anywhere near as popular as total warhammer 3.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by twiglets

[No Foes Remain]

4 hours ago, twiglets said:

Chaos gate:Daemon hunters, 40k: lost crusade, and total warhammer 3 were the major ones. Necromunda might have just been inside that window too.

 

I went and looked up the licensing revenue from when Total Warhammer 2 came out, 9 million pound vs 27 million pound now.

I think that suggests that the mobile game lost crusade might have earned them a lot of that 27 million because chaos gate isn't anywhere near as popular as total warhammer 3.

 

 

Issue is that the marketing for Chaos Gate was terrible, a friend of mine was playing it then talked to me about it and I didn't even know it had come out (turns out it had been out a week).

[Rik Lightstar]

I'm wondering where they put any money from Audible. For the Black Library I might want stuff I'll often use my Audible credits to pick them up. Just a thought.

Rik

[Redcomet]

9 hours ago, Inquisitor_Lensoven said:

Honestly BL has not caught my attention with much of any thing new. How many of those books create relatable, lovable, but most importantly new characters?

i love BA but the Mephiston book bored me and I never finished it, same for the astorath book. In fact I was not only bored with that one but rather annoyed reading it. One of the primaris marines in it was just a whiny little turd which I don’t think fits in with anyone’s idea of what a space marine is.

at this point im only interested in books by Dan abnett.

Considering how much positivity I saw around the Lesk book I would for sure say that a lot of people find the new characters interesting. 
The demographics of GW’s customer base is shifting atm, so products that might not be a hit in your small sphere, might be wildly popular in others

[pawl]

8 hours ago, twiglets said:

I think that suggests that the mobile game lost crusade might have earned them a lot of that 27 million because chaos gate isn't anywhere near as popular as total warhammer 3

I don't know how the game revenues are split, but I can say that LC is something of a cash cow. I don't play anymore but I did from just after launch for nearly a year - in that time I played with more than a few individuals who had invested more than £1k into the game, and one who had topped £5k. That was in just one sector, and last I knew I believe there were more than a hundred. There were plenty of F2P types, and a few whales like above, but also a huge number of casual spenders.

[Noserenda]

Ahhh yeah mobile games typically support themselves on whales, ftp'ers are just incidental. Once watched an influencer playing with a whales account which had over £100,000 spent on it, its... Inconceivable to me but i guess if you can (hopefully) afford it? 

[Wugo_Heaving]

22 hours ago, Isengrin said:

I could be mistaken but wasn't Jake Ozga, one of the main guys behind Ex Profundis, picked up by BL after the contest? I remember that he wrote on Twitter about sending a submission to BL somewhere around 2019. It required a 500 word sample, one paragraph summary, and short character bios, not several thousand words as you are wrongly claiming. You are needlessly exaggerating to make a dubious argument and your conclusion is a bit petty.

It was a few hundred words, my mistake.

However, if I'd not made that mistake, what would your response actually boil down to? I don't quite get what you're trying to say or why you're attacking me.

You've put the exact, correct submission details to clarify my mistake, and to show what the submission specifically entailed to the letter. Great. Thank you. But that's it. You sound like you want to be angry at me, but you're reinforcing my actual point. It's a submission of a writer's work, to which there is still no formal agreement from GW/BL side. There was (to the best of my recollection) nothing to sign, no small print about what happened to material ownership, or anything stating what percentage of sales might the author get, etc. Now... I MAY BE WRONG, if so then my apologies to everyone, it was an honest mistake, but to the best of my recollection it was very informal, neither one thing nor another, which is shocking for such a big company, and is most likely symptomatic of why BL isn't doing well, because it's seemingly not ran well (And my other, separate argument, which I think is a more obvious answer to the broader topic at hand; it's niche, trashy sci-fi whether you like it or not).

They basically got a lot of people to give them free ideas for their existing writers team, and someone happened to get their attention enough to hire, even though that's an odd way of doing things to put it lightly. It should have be an job advertisement for a writer, with appropriate small print regarding ownership of submitted material, etc not a vague "competition". Is that writer now an employee or a competition winner, who they technically owe nothing to and aren't obliged to pay or support? That's my point on why they might not be doing well (besides the more important fact of them being niche sci-fi) I hope that clarifies that I am in no way "needlessly exaggerating" and that my argument is not "dubious", or "petty".

 

 

 

 

 

 

[acrozatarim]

As someone who is now writing for Black Library after submitting to one of those recent open calls, you're misunderstanding somewhat as to what is involved. I'll explain further in a bit - need to dash out for an appointment!

[Lexington]

This is all kinda getting off-topic, but two clarifying things:

- BL has run contests like this sporadically for, like, well over a decade if memory serves, during both its good and bad times, so I don’t think this can be seen as an indicator of their health.

- No author is a BL employee. They’re contractors. They contract for a single story/book/whatever at a time, typically. Contest winners, IIRC, more or less just get a contract for a single short.