List of the "Problematic" units?

[SkimaskMohawk]

 

3 hours ago, arnesh88 said:

Units-That-Are-Fine-But-Can-Raise-Flags:

- Librarian w/ Telepathy

 

I'd put those into notorious. The pinning is really brutal since it cuts through stubborn and acts as a huge deterrent with reactions. And he can shut down reactions on top of that. 

 

As to the other stuff from other people. Neither plasma, nor melta supports average a kill on dreads. Anything with 6 shots can kill a dread, but those units...usually don't. Its like saying the las will kill the Dome, flare shielded, av14 off the first volley. 

 

You can't use force and biomancers rage. They're both separate weapons, and force only applies to the weapon with the rule when you're going to use it. 

 

Thunderhammers on ws5 are one of the few reliable ways to deal with contemptors. But similar to the custodes, equivalent points of those units tends to favour the dreads. Like a terminator command squad with 7 dudes (I know it's capped at 5) with hammers or chains gets folded by two dreads, on either end of the charge. 5 Sekhmet with hammers, same thing. Again with 5 justaerin. And with 6 galvorbak with a fist. The only units that can win with an equivalent amount of points are cenobium, dark fury, and suzerains, with dominators  needing the charge. Its just so obvious that dreads are undercosted and have few bad matchups for their points. 

[Petitioner's City]

@SkimaskMohawk how do mech, titans, knights and auxilia deal with contemptors too? Do they require a much higher investment of points to take them out - 3 vanquishers for auxilia, or whatever else?

[Misterduch]

6 hours ago, SkimaskMohawk said:

 

 

I'd put those into notorious. The pinning is really brutal since it cuts through stubborn and acts as a huge deterrent with reactions. And he can shut down reactions on top of that. 

 

As to the other stuff from other people. Neither plasma, nor melta supports average a kill on dreads. Anything with 6 shots can kill a dread, but those units...usually don't. Its like saying the las will kill the Dome, flare shielded, av14 off the first volley. 

 

You can't use force and biomancers rage. They're both separate weapons, and force only applies to the weapon with the rule when you're going to use it. 

 

Thunderhammers on ws5 are one of the few reliable ways to deal with contemptors. But similar to the custodes, equivalent points of those units tends to favour the dreads. Like a terminator command squad with 7 dudes (I know it's capped at 5) with hammers or chains gets folded by two dreads, on either end of the charge. 5 Sekhmet with hammers, same thing. Again with 5 justaerin. And with 6 galvorbak with a fist. The only units that can win with an equivalent amount of points are cenobium, dark fury, and suzerains, with dominators  needing the charge. Its just so obvious that dreads are undercosted and have few bad matchups for their points. 

 

Gal vorbak will in practice shred trough contemptors tough.

 

GV will punch first with more attacks, each 6 to wound is a invul save against instant death. Contemptor if it survives gets 4 or so attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 2's. While Brutal 3 is great a single 5++ fnp success will mean you need a 2nd attack to kill a single guy.

 

Leviathans are better off as double claw setups get more attacks that are instant death against unbuffered GV, but that still relies on you surviving GV punching first

[Cadmus Tyro]

Good conversation points from both sides on here guys. I don’t think categorising players as WAAC or fluffy is particularly helpful, I think it’s more of a spectrum between the two. 
 

People get enjoyment out of different aspects of the game, personally I enjoy all aspects of it, and that includes the mental challenge of creating “competitive” lists, utilising what I have in my collection and perhaps adding more competitive choices to my existing collection as a port them into 2.0. 

 

As I learn more about 2.0 I’m also learning to self regulate more. However, the problem with self regulation is how subjective it can be, some players consider certain things to be overpowered where others do not. Some have a good grasp of tactical decisions and others either do not or choose not to because it’s more “fluffy” to perform a particular action in the game. This leaves you in a really odd position that relies on knowing your opponents approach or personal gaming stance prior to a game. That’s generally why I play a small selection of people, to avoid the issues created around this. 
 

One thing I would say is that all the competitive options that have been highlighted are available to all legion players, but I appreciate how this skews list building. I often make a joke about how, by the end of 2.0, most people will just be running Las HSS and contemptors!
 

The one thing this discussion highlights to me is the inherent balance issues of the game. It’s pretty poor game design and given the amount of play testing GW supposedly did I think it’s quite something that those balance issues weren’t picked up. Every unit should be viable, every unit should have a role and the points should accurately reflect that role. The issue isn’t that contemptors are monstrous creatures, it’s that they are undercosted for their power level.

 

Of course, all of this could be adjusted quite easily in an FAQ/errata document that addressed the issues. Maybe that will happen in time, but my concern is GWs current approach to rule writing. They have more of an interest in using rules to sell new models rather than producing something that is balanced for a more enjoyable gaming experience. 
 

On a side note, I’ve found Castraferrum dreadnoughts are a little more balanced,  and I’m leaning towards using a MKIV talon as a more palatable option for my opponent to play against. I quite like their waddling underdog status….

 

Cadmus 

[Dont-Be-Haten]

16 hours ago, Galron said:

It should never take 300+ points of models to kill a 200point model, especially when it can destroy that 300+ points with ease. Thats extremely poor game design. Most players use heavy support(iron havocs) for their anti-armor. Contemptors should be vehicles. They already have amazing stats and a 5++. There is absolutely no justification for them to be a multi-wound toughness model and not an AV12/12/10 model. 

I play off trades, and my stuff either makes their points back, or they don't. 

 

If my 265 point plasma support squad kills a 205 point Dread in one shooting phase I'm okay with that trade, if they drop it down to 1 or 2 wounds, I can clean it up with another squad and I'm still okay with that. It makes no differenct it's still a trade I'm willing to make. That same unit is worthless against a 350 land raider, so that's a 350 point swing in favor of my apparent. I can also trade a  255 point melta speeder squad for a 350 point model and net a positive, because a dead spartan usually means I've crippled the unit inside. I understand dice are still a thing and when your opponent rolls hot it swings momentum. 

 

My counter argument to being concerned about points gaps is a 65 point model should never be allowed to outright kill a 300+ point model but a laser destroyer rapier can do just that. That's a huge net positive against an opponent. If we are Utilizing rapiers we can remove enough wounds off a contemptor in a single turn to justify the points trade. This is also fluffy for Iron Warriors, which is a double plus.

 

On a side note, I'm curious to see what happens when Kha'Bhanda actually makes his way onto the table top being a GMC.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Dont-Be-Haten

[SkimaskMohawk]

2 hours ago, Misterduch said:

 

Gal vorbak will in practice shred trough contemptors tough.

 

GV will punch first with more attacks, each 6 to wound is a invul save against instant death. Contemptor if it survives gets 4 or so attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 2's. While Brutal 3 is great a single 5++ fnp success will mean you need a 2nd attack to kill a single guy.

 

Leviathans are better off as double claw setups get more attacks that are instant death against unbuffered GV, but that still relies on you surviving GV punching first

 

Gal vorbak will shred one contemptor, especially off the charge. But against an equivalent amount of points of contemptors (2), they lose on average. It's possible my math is wrong for the brutal/feel no pain and that they'd then win on the charge, but the contemptors will definitely win on the charge. And that's without taking corrupted damage into account.

[Astartes Consul]

On 2/13/2023 at 7:13 PM, Xenith said:

Well, aformentioned 10 Las HSS stands a good chance to kill a dread on its own.

 

OP, Lots of good comments here, I think the takeaway is that one of these units in an army is ok, or like 1 per 1k, but spamming them is when we get problems. 

 

I think you've hit on the big 3 'friendmakers', but some other stuff to ruin days can be Tyrants, Fulmentarus, IF Stone gauntlet, Fury of the Ancients, maaaaybe 3++ save terminators? But in general, the terminators have a high point cost. 

 

Anyone who has invested enough £££ and patience to build a Stone Gauntlet army gets a pass from me. 

[Dark Legionnare]

On 2/14/2023 at 5:56 AM, Gorgoff said:

That's exactly what drove me away from 40k.

GW pumps out a clearly OP unit like the Contemptor which almost every HH player I know react to buy constrain themselves to allow both sides to have a fullfilling experience. 

In 40k now they react like you describe here:

They just get out the even bigger gun and not only tell GW by this that their obvious scheme to push sells of the Dreadnoughts (and of course their conterparts in form of the TSS and HSS boxes) comes to fill fruition.

Which makes them go on and ruins the game in the long run for everybody. 

Because on thing is crystal clear: in an minmax environment some units are out of the question. So your lists tend to get similar because only a few units can compete with the ever increasing powerlevel. 

 

Please don't see that as an personal attack. This attitude ceeps crawling in the HH community from start of 2ed because a lot of 40k players get drawn in with for example the clunky toy like two characters in the new box. Ridiculously looking dudes but a major contributing factor for a lot of new gamer who are used to this kind of toddler sized models from 40k. In the end it ruins the game. 

No thank you. Different steaks for different people but we will (and did) ban people who turn up on our events with WAAC attitude and army lists. Again, I don't say you have a WAAC attitude. This comment was aimed on people we encountered in the past. 

Amen to that latter half.  Our group plays 30k mostly in our own game rooms at my and a bud's house but we've ventured to shops a couple times in CT and VT and had to refuse games from guys we knew were 40k tryhards from previous experience. One list I saw a bud refuse was a Libby (didn't say the discipline, but I bet I could guess what it was), two barebones tac squads, vets with nemesis rifles, 3 contemptors, two levis, and a LAS HSS. Big nope energy even just looking across the room, haha.  It felt rather crappy to think of that guy as an "ambassador to others of what Age of Darkness can be".

On the flipside we've actually drawn in and converted two people sick of what 40K has become in 9th. (Not that it's never been annoyingly hard to keep track of/play/not be frustrated as hell with before in the history of the game before...)  They loved the idea of my crusade-era Lunas force being built and played around eschewing slow/heavy weapon platforms to fit Lunas "strike hard, fast" fluff, and my bud's mechanicum explorator-taskforce list. They then even more thoroughly enjoyed our more "have fun, be fluffy" self-policing spirit we maintain in the 30k group. "Sure, I have a fire-raptor, xiphon, and storm-eagle in the army-pool, but I would never bring all three in one game without prior heads up to a friend because it could very easily become egregiously unfun."

We've also still been sticking mostly to 1.0 at home games while we wait on Mournival/Pan to get into BS to help the new guys not drown in paperwork from doing it the old-fashioned way. (Dusted off the ol' excel template numerous times for 2.0 lately for Pan/Mournival fixing glaring/lazy stuff.)

Edited February 15, 2023 by Dark Legionnare

[Misterduch]

8 hours ago, SkimaskMohawk said:

 

Gal vorbak will shred one contemptor, especially off the charge. But against an equivalent amount of points of contemptors (2), they lose on average. It's possible my math is wrong for the brutal/feel no pain and that they'd then win on the charge, but the contemptors will definitely win on the charge. And that's without taking corrupted damage into account.

 

I mean, yeah 2 double fist will go trough 6 gal vorbak in about 2-3 combat rounds if they get the charge.

but 6 gal vorbak with an extra talon on the charge will likely kill of a contemptor before the later can do anything, and with 4 attacks from the one surviving you only average 1,67 wounds which only kills one GV due to 5+ fnp and that's being charitable with the .67 . This makes the fight bit of a 50/50 depending on how things go with the first set of rolls.

 

 

However, maybe my personal experience colours my opinion but I assume every WB player would Dark Brethren ROW. Even a single point of DB will skew the math hard in favour of the GV, and that's rather easy to achieve unless you only face a skew list of all tanks or dreadnoughts. Same can't really be said for non WB contemptors. Not to mention that getting 2 contemptors into melee with 6 GV ( or other point equivalent ) can be rather tricky depending on how the game goes, and it only gets more problematic with larger units.

 

 

 

 

[SkimaskMohawk]

23 minutes ago, Misterduch said:

 

I mean, yeah 2 double fist will go trough 6 gal vorbak in about 2-3 combat rounds if they get the charge.

but 6 gal vorbak with an extra talon on the charge will likely kill of a contemptor before the later can do anything, and with 4 attacks from the one surviving you only average 1,67 wounds which only kills one GV due to 5+ fnp and that's being charitable with the .67 . This makes the fight bit of a 50/50 depending on how things go with the first set of rolls.

 

 

However, maybe my personal experience colours my opinion but I assume every WB player would Dark Brethren ROW. Even a single point of DB will skew the math hard in favour of the GV, and that's rather easy to achieve unless you only face a skew list of all tanks or dreadnoughts. Same can't really be said for non WB contemptors. Not to mention that getting 2 contemptors into melee with 6 GV ( or other point equivalent ) can be rather tricky depending on how the game goes, and it only gets more problematic with larger units.

 

 

 

 

 

Well in my calculations, I always asumed the GV charged. 6 with a fist lose if the 9 brutal wounds end up killing 2 models with the average 6 unsaved (which only happens if you pass 1/3 for each pool of 3, instead of say 3/0/0 or 1/2/0).

 

6 charging with a double talon average 3.47 failed saves, while 6 charging with a fist average 2.8 from the talon and 1.36 from the fist. Neither option averages a dead contemptor on the charge and results in the likely 2 dead gal vorbak and their far fewer attacks.

 

I don't tend to factor rites or other potential compounding buffs. The legion trait is applied for special units, but going "what about X or Y variables" often goes outside the realm of direct point comparisons. Like ya, I'm sure dark brethren will change the math. But is it really ~350 points vs 350 points then? How many points is the shooting unit that's getting you that point? What are they shooting at? Whats the terrain? Are there reaction points? Lots of variables that spirals a bit too hard into speculation. 

 

And yea, we can say it's hard to make the matchup happen. But the original person to throw up the claims that contemptors are easy to kill also assumed getting within 6" and 12" for ranged weapons, with 20 models, plus full los with longer ranged weapons. Its all a bit silly. 

[NemoVonUtopia]

There is a lot of talk about killing dreadnoughts in one turn, but how important is that in game? Whenever I run or face 2-3 dreads it takes at least 2 turns to get into melee and are just shooting with a couple of Las cannons or multi melta shots and dont seem to do much. Maybe my group is good at self regulation but I have not had a problem or seen many problems in battle reports, I much prefer the new rules over then in 1st edition where all my dreadnoughts would get destroyed or crippled almost immediately.

[SkimaskMohawk]

It....depends. 

 

Are those 2-3 dreadnoughts supplementing a larger offensive push and complicating target priority, or are they the main part of your forces engaged in the midfield (with HSS and tanks providing the long range support)?  Why are they in a list? Whats the plan with them in game? What weapons do they have? All these things can affect their perceived impact. 

 

I've seen dreads put around and do maybe 3 unsaved wounds all game. I've also had dreads end up 12" from the opponents edge on hammer and anvil after going through a number of units. I know I've never felt like I could have spent 175-180 points on something else and gotten the same impact. 

[Bung]

18 hours ago, Astartes Consul said:

 

Anyone who has invested enough £££ and patience to build a Stone Gauntlet army gets a pass from me. 

 

Only If its painted in yellow without contrast paints. :D

[Stitch5000]

15 hours ago, Dark Legionnare said:

We've also still been sticking mostly to 1.0 at home games while we wait on Mournival/Pan to get into BS to help the new guys not drown in paperwork from doing it the old-fashioned way. (Dusted off the ol' excel template numerous times for 2.0 lately for Pan/Mournival fixing glaring/lazy stuff.)

Writing an army list is "drowing in paperwork" these days? Really? That's like a list of 8 things. If that's challenging for the new guys, I dearly hope they don't have, like, jobs... 

Is writing an army list really that torturous? Have we really become so impatient?

Edited February 16, 2023 by Stitch5000

[Foudroyant Virus]

On 2/14/2023 at 10:54 PM, arnesh88 said:

 

Notorious Units:

- Contemptor Dreadnoughts (safe at 1 per 750/1000 pts)

- 10 man lascannon heavy support squads

 

Conditionally A Problem:

- Scorpius

- Recon Squads or spamming Nemesis Bolters

- Box Dreads with Twin-Lascannons

- Maxed Squad Size Custodian Guard Spam

- Lots of Sky-hunters

 

Units-That-Are-Fine-But-Can-Raise-Flags:

- Librarian w/ Telepathy

 

 

a few thoughts about that:

contemptors and HSS are really notorious. But i would totally add the Telepathy Librarian and the scorpion to notorious.

 

the librarian can start pinning enemy units at the beginning of any phase. So e.g. at the beginning of the movementphase before your deep strikes come in.

 

it can pin in the shooting phase, and as a reaction. Bar of fearless units i think it is nearly impossible to charge a unit with a Telepathy psycher (6 shots, 5 hits and therefore a pinningtest with -5). Even elites will test on Ld4.

and like i said: he can do this multiple times a turn. So even one is really, really strong. And the worst part: your enemy cant do anything about it.

 

the scorpius is just dirt cheap. The best artillery in the game costs around 120P. With indirect fire and breaching. Sure, you can handle them. But i think out of internal balancing reasons, this is to be avoided. 

On the other hand:

recon marines arent to bad. I find nemesis veterans to be way more problematic.

 

and skyhunters arent a problem in my books. They const insane amounts of points and a super squishy (no coversaves, only 3+, no way to get an invuln). And they get ID by melta or lascannons. So, if you commit to a whole army of jetbikes it is super fluffy, maybe it wont roll over straight away, but it is not super strong in any way.

 

 

[The Scorpion]

On 2/13/2023 at 1:16 PM, Gorgoff said:

Played agaibst IF which had a buffed up HSS and agree. I need a scorpion to handle this :cuss:.

Agree, the Scorpius is one of the few counters to the HHS squads.

[Misterduch]

14 hours ago, SkimaskMohawk said:

 

Well in my calculations, I always asumed the GV charged. 6 with a fist lose if the 9 brutal wounds end up killing 2 models with the average 6 unsaved (which only happens if you pass 1/3 for each pool of 3, instead of say 3/0/0 or 1/2/0).

 

6 charging with a double talon average 3.47 failed saves, while 6 charging with a fist average 2.8 from the talon and 1.36 from the fist. Neither option averages a dead contemptor on the charge and results in the likely 2 dead gal vorbak and their far fewer attacks.

 

I don't tend to factor rites or other potential compounding buffs. The legion trait is applied for special units, but going "what about X or Y variables" often goes outside the realm of direct point comparisons. Like ya, I'm sure dark brethren will change the math. But is it really ~350 points vs 350 points then? How many points is the shooting unit that's getting you that point? What are they shooting at? Whats the terrain? Are there reaction points? Lots of variables that spirals a bit too hard into speculation. 

 

And yea, we can say it's hard to make the matchup happen. But the original person to throw up the claims that contemptors are easy to kill also assumed getting within 6" and 12" for ranged weapons, with 20 models, plus full los with longer ranged weapons. Its all a bit silly. 

 

my original math was a bit off so my bad.

 

However I find your way of calculating Brutal wounds to be a bit flawed.

 

2 melee conts charged would get 4 attacks each, hitting on 4's that leaves us with 4 hits. for easy of math we will round down the 3,33 wounds down to 3.

 

according to your calculation that would create a brutal wound pool of 9, and that would result in 2 dead gal vorbak.

 

However it would be more accurate to calculate the damage each of the wounds does on their own to represent the fact that damage from brutal can't spill over. So each wound would cause 3 fnp saves from which 1 would be saved resulting in 2 wounds per hit. If done like that we end up at 2+2(1wasted ) to kill one GV, leaving one wounded for 2 wounds.

 

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Misterduch

[TheTrans]

On 2/15/2023 at 7:24 PM, Petitioner's City said:

@SkimaskMohawk how do mech, titans, knights and auxilia deal with contemptors too? Do they require a much higher investment of points to take them out - 3 vanquishers for auxilia, or whatever else?

Badly mate. 

Mech copped some significant nerfs both via their liber and the core rule changes. Solar Aux are in a dire place in all honesty. 

Also is it crazy theat the rules writers flat don't factor in a weapons platform in its cost. A gravis lascannon on a contemptor is 20 points, for 2 BS5 shots on a rediculously sturdy frame that can return fire etc... cost 10 points for a bow mounted lascannon on a russ, for a single BS3 shot on a platform that can be 1 shotted by said weapon and can't return fire with it.... 

Edited February 16, 2023 by TheTrans

[Dark Legionnare]

3 hours ago, Stitch5000 said:

Writing an army list is "drowing in paperwork" these days? Really? That's like a list of 8 things. If that's challenging for the new guys, I dearly hope they don't have, like, jobs... 

Is writing an army list really that torturous? Have we really become so impatient?

I feel ya', mate, haha.

 

I made an excel spreadsheet all the way back in 2006 that I've used since 4th edition. I never have a problem mapping it all out. Actually, It's still fun to me to do so, though, I'm an engineer, so I guess I'm inclined to be biased towards enjoying "structuring things."

 

But as it stands, at least these two younger audience members dont have the patience for that 40 minutes of doing math; or at least the wherewithal to do so and keep track accurately across the Pan/Mournival changes PDF's versus main 2.0 rulebook, etc...(Both of them have jobs as far as I know, don't know lines of work)

 

We've been playing ZM a lot, for that reason, so we can do 2.0 with those fixes in a small enough size they don't whinge.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Dark Legionnare

[Galron]

Off topic to the guys talking about writing lists, why arent you guys using Battle scribe? It has a few issues but works pretty well.

[Dont-Be-Haten]

That new traitor assassin will definitely cause some headaches once officially released.... If he's WS5 I6 he's going to be bananas to face in melee. The potential to kill leviathans and contemptors on the charge is just diabolical. 

[MARK0SIAN]

For my money I don’t think the Scorpius belongs in the same category as some of the other stuff like dreads and telepathy librarian.

 

I think the Scorpius looks worse because most of the other artillery is terrible, so the Scorpius looks better than it is. It may be a few points too cheap but to me it’s exactly what it should be in terms of effectiveness. The game needs units that can reliably take a pop at things like Lascannon squads without coming off worse due to return fire. 
 

I’m not saying it’s not a unit to watch out for and if it’s spammed it would be miserable to face but I don’t feel it’s on the same league as some of the other options mentioned here.

[Dont-Be-Haten]

6 minutes ago, MARK0SIAN said:

For my money I don’t think the Scorpius belongs in the same category as some of the other stuff like dreads and telepathy librarian.

 

I think the Scorpius looks worse because most of the other artillery is terrible, so the Scorpius looks better than it is. It may be a few points too cheap but to me it’s exactly what it should be in terms of effectiveness. The game needs units that can reliably take a pop at things like Lascannon squads without coming off worse due to return fire. 
 

I’m not saying it’s not a unit to watch out for and if it’s spammed it would be miserable to face but I don’t feel it’s on the same league as some of the other options mentioned here.

I mean a typhon siege tank being rending 4+ brutal (4) strength 12 large blast with built in flare shields is basically a better version of the scorpius...only a Lord of War.

 

Alot of the sicaran Variants are potentially more fatal. So I don't understand putting that tank in problematic units. It's good no doubt, but anything with the heavy subtype gets to re-roll it's invulnerable save against blast and template weapons.

[Noserenda]

To be fair writing lists in AoD2 is a bit torturous but its nothing to do with maths, just all the cross referencing over mutiple books to check what various weapons and rules do these days, i tend to write lists on my computer with a bunch of copies of the book open to various sections but doing it with chonky hardbacks and paper would need more table space than my tiny flat provides! 

If one is used to datasheets or army builders its definitely worse.

[SkimaskMohawk]

5 hours ago, Misterduch said:

 

my original math was a bit off so my bad.

 

However I find your way of calculating Brutal wounds to be a bit flawed.

 

2 melee conts charged would get 4 attacks each, hitting on 4's that leaves us with 4 hits. for easy of math we will round down the 3,33 wounds down to 3.

 

according to your calculation that would create a brutal wound pool of 9, and that would result in 2 dead gal vorbak.

 

However it would be more accurate to calculate the damage each of the wounds does on their own to represent the fact that damage from brutal can't spill over. So each wound would cause 3 fnp saves from which 1 would be saved resulting in 2 wounds per hit. If done like that we end up at 2+2(1wasted ) to kill one GV, leaving one wounded for 2 wounds.

 

 

 

I thought I mentioned how wounds could be divvied up, but I was having a few so I might have glossed over it. 

 

There's a number of ways those 9 brutal wounds can be saved by the average 3 passed 5+ FNP:

 

- 3/0/0 / 0/3/0 / 0/0/3

- 2/1/0 / 2/0/1 / 1/2/0 / 1/0/2 / 0/2/1 / 0/1/2

- 1/1/1

Unless I'm wrong, the only configurations that result in 1 dead GV are 2/0/1, 1/0/2, and 1/1/1. That's a 30% chance.

 

The average is simply 33%, but that doesn't mean it has to be perfectly distributed to each pool of 3. It could fall in any of those configurations and still be just as likely.