=I= Coming in 2010?

[Eddie Orlock]

Here is some maths, courtesy of Warseer

Poorly Done Mathhammer

Can you honestly say that 216 lasguns to kill one GKT is balanced in any way?

I can honestly say I'm tired of poorly done Mathhammer. This is not a vidja game with accumulating damage, its a table top game with dice derived outcomes.

See chart below.

It's about a one in twenty shot for them to down one, a on in a thousand for them to get two in the same volley.

For all those who lust for the 2D6 saves of yore, I'll remind them that just about every guardsman and his dog had a save modifier, lasguns had a minus one. Only failing on snake eyes was a rare occurrence. They actually had a rule that prohibited more than one field save at a time. The Lion Helm had a faq that indicated that it cancelled the force fields of other characters if they were in the bubble, it was nearly impossible to invulnerable to the sword of secrets.

[Valerian]

Brother Eddie,

 

I find it interesting that your Mathhammer puts the probability of 10 Lasgun Shots causing a Grey Knight Terminator with Anointed Armour at .044 (or 4.4%), while the "poorly done Mathhammer" results were that a Single Lasgun Shot has a 1 in 216 chance of causing a casualty in the same circumstances. 1 in 216 works out to a probability of .0046 (or .46%). Funny that their results are almost exactly 1/10th of your results, while you used 10 times as many shots.

 

Help me out here, but I'm not really getting why the "poorly done Mathhammer" isn't just as helpful as what you provided. I know that they didn't use a volley of fire and figure out the likelihood of getting more than one casualty in that unit (instead of just one), like you did, but the chances are pretty close to zero of getting multiple casualties anyway. What they did show, and the helpful part here, is the clear demonstration that "standard" weapons like lasguns, bolt pistols and chain swords are going to kill a GKT with Anointed Armour very often. In fact, it will be such a rare occurrence, that an opponent is probably just better off not wasting the shots, and should target an alternate unit (if there is one).

 

Thanks much,

 

V

[GeoWolf]

I personally dislike math. What I do know is that every time a Termie dies to a Bolt Pistol, I shed a tear. I almost threw a tantrum the one time a group of 5 were cut down by 8 Bolt Pistols from a unit of Berzerkers.

 

I hope they bring the codex out soon, thats what we need, really

[Marmande]

Toss a few meltas and plasma shots into the equation and I don't think many will be complaining about rerollable armor saves.

[boreas]

A 2+ re-rollable save would possibly help switch meltagun spam to plasmaguns. A squad of IG veterans with 3 plasmaguns would have a field day, quite possibly killing four 40-45 points models in one go.

 

Phil

[greatcrusade08]

A 2+ re-rollable save would possibly help switch meltagun spam to plasmaguns. A squad of IG veterans with 3 plasmaguns would have a field day, quite possibly killing four 40-45 points models in one go.

 

Phil

 

I suppose this is correct although it would make LR assault lists laugh.. i guess it will alter target priority a little, but if you werent aiming to kill the enemy plasma anyways then you deserve to lose :rolleyes:

[Judanas]

Rerollable armour saves...damn, that's nasty.

 

Still, Divine Guidance will cut those heretical marines down!

 

...Hard to find a reason for Sisters Of Battle to fight Grey Knights that does not stomp on the fluff of at least on of the armies...

[Judanas]

Rerollable armour saves...damn, that's nasty.

 

Still, Divine Guidance will cut those heretical marines down!

 

...Hard to find a reason for Sisters Of Battle to fight Grey Knights that does not stomp on the fluff of at least on of the armies...

[- 7eAL -]

I am extremely worried. That's all I can say.

[chaplain belisarius]

why? are you worried the games tilting ever more towards hero hammer and gimmicks? (Im a bit worried about that happening myself...)

[Valerian]

I prodded Harry, over on Warseer, a little bit, and he finally confirmed the rumor that the Grey Knights will be getting some Daemon-fighting "exo-suits". These will be reminiscent of the suits seen in either the movie "Avatar" or "The Matrix: Revolutions". I would say this is a decent method of getting around the whole "Grey Knights don't like to get entombed into Dreadnoughts sarcophagi, and would rather be buried on Titan" background material. The "exo-suits" would be operated by a living Grey Knight, in Power Armour presumably.

http://www.warseer.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=94428&d=1281873552http://images.allmoviephoto.com/2003_The_Matrix_Revolutions/2003_the_matrix_revolution_016.jpg

 

 

Now discuss!

 

Valerian

[boreas]

I am extremely worried. That's all I can say.

 

I'd also add my "why"? Re-rollable AS seems a very good way to help the one failure of WH40k: representing elite armies to a proper resilience. As of now, elite armies die to mass shooting/cc (ie "Bucket of Dice" trumps "ubermodels"). Sure, the price per models will be high, but when those 25 orks attack 100 times, hit 50 times, wound 25 times you'll have one dead (re-rollable 2+) rather than 8. Then the warboss will probably kill 1-2 more. Ork assault now gives 2-3 dead GK instead of 8-10.

 

As for the exo-suit: win.

 

Phil

[Eddie Orlock]

Brother Eddie,

 

I find it interesting that your Mathhammer puts the probability of 10 Lasgun Shots causing a Grey Knight Terminator with Anointed Armour at .044 (or 4.4%), while the "poorly done Mathhammer" results were that a Single Lasgun Shot has a 1 in 216 chance of causing a casualty in the same circumstances. 1 in 216 works out to a probability of .0046 (or .46%). Funny that their results are almost exactly 1/10th of your results, while you used 10 times as many shots.

 

Help me out here, but I'm not really getting why the "poorly done Mathhammer" isn't just as helpful as what you provided. I know that they didn't use a volley of fire and figure out the likelihood of getting more than one casualty in that unit (instead of just one), like you did, but the chances are pretty close to zero of getting multiple casualties anyway. What they did show, and the helpful part here, is the clear demonstration that "standard" weapons like lasguns, bolt pistols and chain swords are going to kill a GKT with Anointed Armour very often. In fact, it will be such a rare occurrence, that an opponent is probably just better off not wasting the shots, and should target an alternate unit (if there is one).

 

Thanks much,

 

V

Valerian,

 

This specific case is perhaps not the best demonstration. To be honest I initially started to model this with 216 shots, but alas, Excel that I had handy proved unequal to the task. I might have coded it in C as a simple app, but I didn't have a complier handy and I didn't want to install one on the work box. What I'd intended to demonstrate can be simply done with the abstract of coin tosses. Your tossing a coin, you want a heads result, just one is enough. How many times do you need to toss that coin. If you subscribe to poorly done mathhammer, you need to toss the coin twice. If you grind the numbers properly, however, you'll find there is still a ~25% chance of both tosses coming up tails. So, really, tossing it twice only gives you 75% confidence of success. I'm sure I'm using the wrong words for the concept here, maybe a professional statistician will swoop in, but for now let us soldier on in the Emperor's service. So the question becomes, just how confident do you want to be of getting your head? This will need to be weighed against the opportunity cost of squandered attempts. If I wanted to be >95% confident of success, I'd need to toss the coin five times. It still wouldn't be certain though. This is probability, you'll never get to certain. If we subscribed to the poorly done mathhammer, however, the pundits would say that we should have gotten the head n*P, or 5*0.5, thus 2.5 times.

 

Really It's an argument about how the results are presented and interpreted A guardsman with a lasgun having a 1/216 shot at gunning down a knight is most definitively not the same as saying hundred and sixteen guardsmen will be able to kill one knight.

 

I don't really view the idea that buckets of dice beating uber models as a bad thing. Frankly, it's just the nature of the game that the uber figures should be careful to no get overwhelmed and swamped, and this is a good thing.

[boreas]

I don't really view the idea that buckets of dice beating uber models as a bad thing. Frankly, it's just the nature of the game that the uber figures should be careful to no get overwhelmed and swamped, and this is a good thing.

 

I think it's just a quirk of the WH40k mechanics that the Bucket best the Elite. But I think some codice should have their own rule that supersede the basic rules in order to allow elite armies to be viable. Orks and Nids should fear some very small but very elite CC units in order to avoid the old RTS paradigm: just toss as many models at your opponent as possible. The way to win with "bucket" armies is "kill 'em all". The challenge to winning with GKs should be this: You can kill almost anything in CC, but you have 6 units and your opponent has 12; try and get more objective than he does. Thus, you can kill a mob of 25 Orks with your 6-8 Gks, sure, but if you choose to do so, you'll have a unit tarpitted while the other 4 Ork units take objective. The real question won't be to choose your battles in function of "can I win?", but rather can I win quickly enough to get to an Objective? A good GK player wouldn't plow right on, he would try to "cat and mouse" until his unit is in position and then defend those with ease... At least, that's something I think would make the GK flavor a lot different from other armies.

 

Phil

[Oiad]

Ugh, leave exosuits to the Tau. This smells like a gimmick to keep the boys happy. To me it just seems weirdly off-theme. Maybe they were mistaken and these exo-suits are new Pentient Engine models...

As for the re-rollable saves - I'm happy it's just a rumour. Increasing survivability can be better set by increasing the Invulerable save for each knight or, alternatively something similar to a lowbrow FNP.

 

I am extremely worried. That's all I can say.

Hmm, something to ask for in your project mayhap, hey 7eal. :D

 

No worries.

[Valerian]

Ugh, leave exosuits to the Tau. This smells like a gimmick to keep the boys happy. To me it just seems weirdly off-theme. Maybe they were mistaken and these exo-suits are new Pentient Engine models...

 

I'm not sure about how I feel about the concept yet, but they are definitely for the Grey Knights and not Penitent Engines (I got it from two sources that I trust). I eventually got over the idea of Marines riding Thunderwolves for one of my other armies, so if this bothers me, I'm sure that I'll get over that, too. Blood Angels got Sanguinary Guard for their new codex (not to mention the Stormraven), which was "out of the blue", so I would say for you to not be surprised for the new exo-suits. It seems that every new 5th Edition codex has gotten something new, that had never been in the "fluff" before, but has been "ret-conned" in. Even Codex Space Marines got the Thunderfire Cannon.

 

As for the re-rollable saves - I'm happy it's just a rumour. Increasing survivability can be better set by increasing the Invulerable save for each knight

 

Better Invulnerable Saves would be worthless in most cases. If you opponent shoots a full squad of cheap Lasguns at you, an improved Invulnerable Save won't help one bit.

 

A "lowbrow" FnP, however, would, or an improved Shrouding (like I put in my original Fandex) with a "filter" against all shooting attacks.

 

Anyway, so far that idea has only been confirmed to have been used in playtesting. There is no telling what the playtest games may have revealed, and what the end result will be.

 

Regards,

 

Valerian

[jakehunter52]

I'm not sure about how I feel about the concept yet, but they are definitely for the Grey Knights and not Penitent Engines (I got it from two sources that I trust). I eventually got over the idea of Marines riding Thunderwolves for one of my other armies, so if this bothers me, I'm sure that I'll get over that, too. Blood Angels got Sanguinary Guard for their new codex (not to mention the Stormraven), which was "out of the blue", so I would say for you to not be surprised for the new exo-suits. It seems that every new 5th Edition codex has gotten something new, that had never been in the "fluff" before, but has been "ret-conned" in. Even Codex Space Marines got the Thunderfire Cannon.

 

I think that it is interesting enough to worth exploring. Really, the Imperium has very few MC to speak of and giving this duty to the Grey Knights would be a privilege. As far as fluff goes, it does seem....out of place. Why would a fully mechanical suit of armour be piloting another suit of mechanical armour? Unless....

 

http://i592.photobucket.com/albums/tt10/de33xn00r/_SPOILER__TT_Gurren_Lagann_by_oh8.jpg

 

Ha ha. Bad joke. But serious, it does seem like a bit of over kill. Frankly, I would rather see a stripped down marine, using the same implants that connect him to his power armour be used for the exo-skeleton. Plus I think that would look mad wicked. It also does make some sense in how one could combat the larger greater daemons if they didn't have the raw psychic power or the experience as a Grandmaster. Maybe a tie in with the Ad Mech as well? Destruction of the abomination machines known as the Soul Grinder?

[boreas]

Well, the "squishy" part of the dex is not yet announced. Imagine the general suprise if it was Admech Skitarii! I remember some kind of rumor about a techmarine-like guy with some kind of big servitor? Or wasn't that in a codex: BA fake?

 

Phil

[Valerian]

Well, the "squishy" part of the dex is not yet announced. Imagine the general suprise if it was Admech Skitarii! I remember some kind of rumor about a techmarine-like guy with some kind of big servitor? Or wasn't that in a codex: BA fake?

 

Phil

 

Yeah that was from the fake BA Codex that jackass passed off as the real thing last winter. He had a techmarine with a "Frankenstein's Monster" style servitor in it. I think he figured that it would somehow tie in with the Vampiric theme of the Chapter.

 

V

[Gentlemanloser]

Yeah, but I think that the complaints are that it would be across the board, and not limited to an upgrade power, or a psychic power booning a single squad.

 

What I got, reading between the lines, was that this would be a GK 'special rule', as in all GK get it, but it's not an army wide rule (as stated, there are at least a handful of Inquisitorial and possibly other units in the Codex).

 

But it might still be an upgrade/power. There was some confusing wording used on the clarifications.

 

As for the Walker, if we really do get it and it doesn't go the way of Jetbikes (or is just a GK Libby Dread...), maybe we could get a Karamazov style MC based on the 'Throne'. That would be all sorts of awesome. ;) I long felt Karamzov felt kind of lonely, being the only Imperial MC. ;)

[heretic??ME??]

On the exosuits. Really is this a problem?

 

Old style imperial dreadnoughts were essentially this e.g. Deredo, Contemptor, and the Furibundus class dreads.

 

Yes the models do look abit naff these days but the idea is still there. Remodel to fit contemporary designs and away you go.

[Oiad]

I'm not sure about how I feel about the concept yet, but they are definitely for the Grey Knights and not Penitent Engines (I got it from two sources that I trust). I eventually got over the idea of Marines riding Thunderwolves for one of my other armies, so if this bothers me, I'm sure that I'll get over that, too. Blood Angels got Sanguinary Guard for their new codex (not to mention the Stormraven), which was "out of the blue", so I would say for you to not be surprised for the new exo-suits. It seems that every new 5th Edition codex has gotten something new, that had never been in the "fluff" before, but has been "ret-conned" in. Even Codex Space Marines got the Thunderfire Cannon.

Not suprised at all. Just ' :) '

I guess we have very different perpectives as none of the other units you mentioned seemed drastically out of theme, just silly. Thunderwolves suit the crazed 'maddawg', barbarian approach of the SW with a heavy hitting FA unit, and if they had better models the SG, representing the upper echelons of the seraph would have worked well on the BA as their take on 'jetpacking' honour guard. But a double-barrelled, 30ft+ tall mech fit in with small, flexible daemon-slaying army that isn't over reliant on mech? Perhaps the IG but not the GK. Besides as I said, the niche is well covered by another army. It seems silly to want to spoil that just so the certain greedy kids gain some wish-fullfillment by having everything in one army. I feel sorry for the Tau because they loose one of their unique pulling-points if this is true.

 

As for their 'lock-in' within the codex, I'll wait until details are given from the finalised codex to take any news seriously. So far I'm in just intrigued by any news but still take it with salt no matter how positive it seems.

 

Better Invulnerable Saves would be worthless in most cases. If you opponent shoots a full squad of cheap Lasguns at you, an improved Invulnerable Save won't help one bit.

 

A "lowbrow" FnP, however, would, or an improved Shrouding (like I put in my original Fandex) with a "filter" against all shooting attacks.

 

Anyway, so far that idea has only been confirmed to have been used in playtesting. There is no telling what the playtest games may have revealed, and what the end result will be.

Please tell your just being a contraian to my responses? How much survival power do you want? Most armies would love T4+, 2+/6++ save with shrouding against artillery. It sounds spoilt, overcooked and too costly asking for more. Besides, GK's have always been a high risk army that requires plenty of good handling and well thought-out planning. As mystical elites they deserve some kind of extra protection but don't be OTT about it. If GKs get into situations where they get shot up by multiple squad firepower, the approach has obviously been miscalculated and the player should pay for it. We should not be blaming the models for every poor sitauion they get into, then feel they should be able to near-automatically save themselves from it. However, some of you seem like you want an automatic 'win' button from the upcoming codex...

[boreas]

But the reality is that when facing Nids, Orks, no matter how good you are, you will be facing so many squads that you will get either in CC with 4-to-1, 5-to-1 or even 6-to1 odds and a 2+/6++ save won't help you a bit. Same thing with IG: you'll be facing tons of squads that can be very very mobile. You can't assume that every GK player will be good but every other player will be stupid. A good IG general will easily, through Chimeras and Valkyries, get multiple squads inside your optimal shrouding area.

 

Right now, GKs can avoid this with LR-spam, and it's made the GKs the most boring army to play with/against. I'm not saying GKs should have re-rollable AS, but they should have a way to be resilient against "bucket" armies. A 2+/6++ save doesn't cut it unless, by some wierd way, they make the GKs dirth cheap (ie keep them at 25-30 pts even with the improved armor, improved shrouding and improved NFW).

 

Phil

[Gentlemanloser]

Most armies would love T4+, 2+/6++ save with shrouding against artillery. It sounds spoilt, overcooked and too costly asking for more.

 

And you really should try the survivability and mobility of a S Guard/SR BA list. I know Marines can get a FNP Command Squad, but a S Guard list looks very much like the fast, mobile and powerful 'elite' army the GK should be (and seem to be heading towards).

 

Besides, it looks like the GK are being made into a faster and more CC orientated army (12" Hoods, hopefully better DS), which is at odds with The Shrouding.

 

Even if it is increased to Nightfight potency, we're being given Transports (Fast Skimmers and Razorbacks at least), and possibly better DS rules to enable us to get into Range without Shrouding.

 

And even with a beefed up Psycannon, we're not really the Tau type of stand off and shoot army. We just don't have the RoF for that.

[Oiad]

This is definitely a week for antagonising myself. Anyone else wanna take my comments at face value? I'm not telling you all what we should have, on the contrary I agree with many of your comments boreas:

 

- Not supporting Invulnerable save, it was an example. Obviously it doesn't suit every situation, but it's not overly expensive addition either. Place low-grade FNP or any other low-cost ability to make yourself happy. A 2+ rerollable, along with every other proposed rumour will bolster point costs up too high making GKs even more vastly outnumbered.

- I would never assume that other players are 'stupid' and despise such accusations. My point GKs need to be played with subtlty, wittling down their opponents and maximising on their flexibility. This is how we always had to play them regardless of the ever increasing odds. Obviously this makes them less of a starter army than the horde lists suggested, and against such armies these tactics are much harder to realise.

- LR spam maybe boring but let's not forget all the other rumours in relation to this, with dedicated transport likely to become available too. Not that Mech MEQ of all shapes is any less boring. Just cheaper.

 

What really winds me up is that all this proposed increased survivability is going to boost single model costs. There are other ways of doing this without resorting to that. For example, a choice of squad-wide minor psychic powers, rather than a single default power, etc.

 

EDIT - Grammar