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Captain Semper

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Eldrick Shadowblade Veteran

Eldrick Shadowblade

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"But my Lord, the warp distorts time and space, how could I know?" Lord Kraven heard enough excuses. He impaled the Magister with a fierce thrust of his lightning claw. He lifted the cultist leader off the ground with ease as blood pooled from the hole he had created.

"I trust you will do better as my chief Magister." Lord Kraven said. It was a statement of fact. He did not tolerate failure. "You have one year to begin the ritual of summoning. I will have my badges."

Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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+++FIFTH WEEKLY UPDATE+++

http://fortressofunforgiven.homestead.com/ETL_2016_Poster_00_Announcement.jpg

So, this week saw the end of the recruitment effort, and the results are dazzling! Total participants reached 470, the second highest participation level of all ETLs. Now the teams are set and the long-term strategy can be discussed!

There are two main approaches here:

1. For the teams with low average vows the key is to turn small vows into an advantage: secure completions and quick re-vowing to get the multiplying effect!

2. For the teams with high average vows, the target should be to achieve high completion rate, especially among first vows, in order to prevent their advantage to wither away.

Interestingly Week 5 had the lower amount of completions of just 9.4k with the sole exception Week 1. I think the inevitable easing of the tension starts to creep in, but all participants should remember that it’s the middle part of the ETL that is the most crucial! Psychologically, the enthusiasm of the recruiting period starts to wane while the end is still too far away to cause an alarm. But the end will come faster than you’d think and those who have utilized late June and July will most certainly will come on top!

Now let’s see the weekly stats in more detail:

E TENEBRAE LUX V – Week 5
Codex 76 91 58,304 11,687 20.0%
Blood Angels 54 72 30,189 6,882 22.8%
Dark Angels 57 66 39,925 4,825 12.1%
Space Wolves 51 59 52,550 7,474 14.2%
Forces of the Imperium 44 54 26,156 2,726 10.4%
Realm of Chaos 81 96 90,762 18,371 20.2%
Horus Heresy 107 130 118,267 22,055 18.6%
TOTAL 470 568 416,153 74,018 17.8%

And let’s see each Faction one by one:

CODEX

The Codex managed to complete 2.1k pts this week that is interesting given how slow Week 5 has been in terms of completions. With a completion rate of 20% (above the ETL average) and a re-vowing rate of 24% they seem to have great momentum. However, the low average vow of 641 (some 100pts lower than the ETL average) leaves little room for respite. With the small vows the only thing that can drive you forward is the multiplier effect of re-vowing and the implied benefit of high completion rate! By the way, 20% completion rate is good but still lower than Chaos that has significantly more resources in its disposal. To counter that you need to keep the pace – and increase it if possible!

BLOOD ANGELS

The highest completion rate in the ETL at this point! I think congratulations are in order. Your participation levels ended up to be a very respectable 54 putting you in the same club as DAs and SWs and comfortably above the IFOR. Also 1/3 of you have re-vowed – an encouraging sign for sure. However, and this is VERY important, you have the lowest average vow in the ETL – which actually dropped further in Week 5 to just 419pts. This is a big obstacle you need to overcome. Unless you increase your completion rate to significantly higher levels, you get a re-vowing rate (in terms of points) to way above current levels of 24% the situation will be grim. Just to point out that the average BA first vow is 450pts while the average second vow is just 286pts… It is very important that the second average vow is raised. Interestingly enough the third vows average is at 475pts – so that’s encouraging.

DARK ANGELS

Participation levels seem to be fine at 57. On the other hand, average vow is lower than the ETL average by more than 100pts but what pains me the most is the persistent low completion rate of only 12%. The ETL is by now a 20% completion rate environment and this lagging, reminds me of last year’s performance that although the DAs managed a respectable completion rate, this came too late depriving them of material second or subsequent vows. The re-vowing rate in terms of points is just 16% - way below the rivals’ levels but at least the second vows come at 50pts higher than the first vows. It’s simple: if we want to prevail, we need to get out completion rate higher – more than double our current rates!

SPACE WOLVES

The Space Wolves have achieved the highest participation levels of all ETLs at 51. Furthermore, their average vow is 891pts stands comfortably above the ETL average of 733 and is among the three higher average vows in the event. Completion rate however is fairly low at 14% which is a pity because this keeps the re-vowing in check at a point when it should be at its peak. Just to drive the point home, there were no completions in Week 5 – an unfortunate fact that one hopes will not have long-lasting effects. I also need to point out that, like the DAs, the relatively low completion rate restricts the re-vowing rate which currently stands at only 18%. The encouraging thing is, that second vows come at ca. 150pts higher than the first vows – this is a recipe for victory!

IMPERIAL FORCES

The IFOR had a huge swing in participation compared to last year’s spike. With 44 participants and the second lowest average vow of the ETL they seem to be is a difficult position. True, the quality that is coming out is very high but the completion rate is the lowest of the ETL at just 10% which doesn’t help either. But the important thing is to get high completion rate in the end of the event and as such there is still time. I think the important thing is to raise the average vow through subsequent vows that would come at significantly higher points! The Guard in particular has a role to play in this with the wealth of the Super-Heavies they have in their disposal! Let’s hope Week 6 will be a productive one!

REALM OF CHAOS

At the end of the recruitment phase the Chaos team is now the second most populous with 81 participants. They also have the highest average vow and the second highest completion rate. They seem strong but in Week 5 there were only ca. 400pts completed! Is that a sign of fatigue? Truth being aid the re-vowing rate of 25% is the highest in the ETL – this is a source of comfort and as such there is no reason to sound the alarm just yet. But another week like that and your metrics will start to slip, an although you have an abundance or resources in absolute terms, you must remember that everything is weighted with completion rates post penalties. So big vows are all good but they also entail a higher risk of failure. Stay true to your cause and you have nothing to fear. Falter and everything will be crumbling down…

HORUS HERESY

The HH has achieved the highest participation levels of any faction in all ETLs! I think this is reflective of the rising popularity of the setting and the support it gets from FW both in terms of rule-set and of course miniatures. So, there is a lot of enthusiasm – but is there a lot of commitment? Completion rate of 19% is high (not the highest) and re-vowing rate at 20% is high (again not the highest) but the sheer amount of resources makes it less important. However, just to keep things in perspective and to prevent you from relaxing, you currently may appear to have a 3,684pts advantage vs. Chaos but if one adjusts for completion rates it drops down to just 400pts! And Chaos had a slow week… So having a big following is fine, vowing big is also fine, but ultimately it’ll be the commitment to be rewarded – not the intention! Keep true to your commitments and given your resources you’ll be securing victory. Lose focus and lose the ETL!

AS A LAST POINT I’D LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT TWO THINGS:

FOR THOSE WHO HAVE NOT YET SUBMITTED “BEFORE” PICS, WHEN YOU DO TAKE THEM, PLEASE EDIT THEM IN YOUR ORIGINAL VOW POST!

PLEASE ALL OF YOU CHECK THE SECOND POST OF YOUR STRATEGIUM TO MAKE SURE YOUR VOW IS CORRECTLY DEPICTED AND LINKED. LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUES.

So until next week, keep those completions coming!!! biggrin.png

Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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I firmly believe that until about Week 11 it's anyone's game. Even then, all it takes is someone to falter and everything changes.

 

Dragonlover

 

Exactly! The completion rate is volatile and can change abruptly from one week to the next. I just want to highlight its importance in determining the final score. Also having high completion rate early on, can translate in higher re-vowing rate - a very important metric especially for the low average vow factions. So keeping track of it is important on relative terms early on and as we approach Week 13 it will also gradually become important in absolute terms.

Jonny Roxtar Veteran

Jonny Roxtar

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74k painted finished ready to play miniatures. Thats the point right there for me. Personally i have finished 1500 points of Marines. A playable army .Something i didnt have before this ETL. I can turn up anywhere with a painted finished army in a little over a month that it took to do . Im already happy and in a months time I will have 3000 points finished , if all goes well.

The encouragement and motivation from everyone involved is amazing and i thank you all and encourage you all to finish what you started. The ETL is a win win situation, no matter who wins in the end we all lower the height of that pile of grey plastic ,resin and metal.

Glad to be part of this.

Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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Exactly so deusmex, the ETL is split between team and personal achievement. The Custos Fidei rewards the personal achievement and is the main driver to motivate people to paint their minis. The team competition is really an add on to spice things up and add to the fun! The real aim though is for people to paint what they want (within reason) to the best of their ability and have fun while doing it! 

Brother Argent Venerable Brother

Brother Argent

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100% agree there deusmex.  If (and its a big if) I manage to complete my vow it will not only be the first space marine I have painted in nearly a year it will also be the first time I have completed an ETL since the start.  Its actually a huge drive for me and it feels great to be part of a team effort.  Last few years I felt like I let my comrades down.  This year hopefully not so much.

Augustus b'Raass Venerable Brother

Augustus b'Raass

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I almost only paint things during this and Auggie's Arena....

Which I will definitely host again coming winter. This year, I couldn't do it because of the house-buy and moving situation. But I have some pretty cool new ideas, if I may say so myself. For now, the ETL is indeed such an awesome driver. I got almost 7K done in the last two, and will get another 4k+ done this one. 

Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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+++SIXTH WEEKLY UPDATE+++

http://fortressofunforgiven.homestead.com/ETL_2016_Poster_00_Announcement.jpg



So we have reached the middle of the event (sort of). Surprisingly the total amount of completions surpassed the previous week and it appears that procrastination was beaten back? But was all this activity evenly distributed between the factions? Some were pretty energetic like Codex, BAs and HH. Others were moderately so like Chaos while DAs, SWs and IFOR seemed to stagnate despite some notable individual efforts.

As a general comment, weeks 6-8 should see a wave of first vow completions as high completion rate among first vows is the key to victory. Obviously some Factions need that more urgently than others but even the most populous Factions cannot afford to ignore that element. To re-vow you need to complete your first vow – and no faction can rely on its first vows exclusively – especially if the completion ratio is not stellar.

Which brings us to the completion ratio. This increased by 4 percentage points in the week an interesting trend given that the denominator (points pledged) increased by some 13k. REMEMBER: The final scores, after deducting any nullifications due to non-completions of subsequent vows, will be weighted by the completion rate. This makes a HUGE difference. And makes it extremely important to complete your vow even if you do not plan on a second one. The consequences will affect your faction – not just you!

Keep in mind, these are the trying times of the mid-period of the ETL, if there is a significant lag in weeks 6-8 then things will become very challenging for the closing part of the event.

Now let’s see the weekly stats in more detail:

E TENEBRAE LUX V – Week 6
FactionParticipantsVows Points pledged Completions RateCodex 76 95 62,024 15,675 25.3% Blood Angels 54 76 32,344 11,192 34.6% Dark Angels 57 70 40,948 4,980 12.2% Space Wolves 51 60 53,390 8,264 15.5% Forces of the Imperium 44 55 26,451 2,826 10.7% Realm of Chaos 81 99 92,602 22,013 23.8% Horus Heresy 107 134 121,502 28,890 23.8% TOTAL 470 589 429,261 93,840 21.9%


And let’s see each Faction one by one:

CODEX
The Codex completed an important 4k pts in the week and did some serious re-vowing with total pts pledged rising by 13k pts! This translated to a re-vowing rate of 32% and a jump of the completion rate by 5 percentage points to 25%. These stats are indicative of the commitment, the momentum and the determination of the Codex lot this year. Question is, is it enough? Well adjusted for the completion rate (and that’s just indicative as completion rates will soar towards the last weeks of the event) they are just 1.2k pts behind Chaos! On the other hand, they are only about 100pts ahead of the Blood Angels… So the short answer is, that given their relatively low average vow (at least compared to Chaos and the HH) you cannot afford any laxity! You need to push your completion rate higher faster than your rivals and keep that re-vowing rate high as well. You are in a position where everything is possible: keep it up and accelerate and you challenge even the first position! Relax and this ship has sailed. For good. Forever. So, will you be winning this or spawn a lifetime of heresy?

BLOOD ANGELS
What can I say here? It has been a marvelous week. The BA completion ratio jumped from 23% to 35% and adjusting for that completion rate, you’re less than 100pts behind the Codex. More importantly you have the highest re-vowing rate of 33% which means you’re really putting up an effort to make up for your major weakness: the lowest average vow in the game. So let’s see where do we go from here. The answer is simple: you need to raise your average vow! It’s all good to say you need to vow and vow again but realistically there is so much one can do on this front. With 33% completion rate, is it feasible to expect to raise it materially higher? Maybe but if the new vows come at small points then it won’t be enough to beat the rival factions that have considerably more resources in their disposal. Remember: completion rates will inevitably converge by the end of the event and although you may score higher on that metric it may not be enough to get you out of the woods. Any new vows need to improve the average – trust me, by Week 12 it will make a huge difference!

DARK ANGELS
Right. Completion rate is woefully low at just 12% - a good 10 percentage points below the ETL average. This is so low that any further advice is just unimportant at this point. The average vow is a bit on the low side (some 200pts below the average) so the re-vowing, such as it is, must come at higher-than-average points to keep the DA competitive. But it doesn’t really matter because the completion rate among first vows is actually lower than the overall completion rate. That means that only a handful of brothers that have completed already and re-vowed are the ones that drive the entire Faction! So let’s see some first vow completions here, they don’t have to be a followed-up, but we need to get some completions under our belt at this point in the game. Or else it will be too little, too late.

SPACE WOLVES
Not very good news here I’m afraid. Your completion rate increased by 1 percentage point over the week and remains really low – although not the lowest. With the average vow at a respectable 890pts all you need to do is keep up with the average completion rate of the ETL and accelerate at the closing weeks of the event. Right now it appears there is a lot of catching up to do. Look, in Week 5 you had no completions while in Week 6 you only had 790 pts completed – that’s below your average vow… You have more resources than the BAs and the DAs and only marginally less than the Codex – a determined effort similar to the BAs could lead to a totally different picture! Interestingly your re-vowing rate, although no very high at 20% has yet to kick in as there are no second vow completions to this point… Could the second vows be the game-changer for the Wolves? We’ll have to see!

IMPERIAL FORCES
The IFOR needs to speed up on all fronts. Firstly, it has the lowest completion rate in the ETL. This comes from a faction that prided itself of high completion rates regardless of the absolute amount. What’s happening now? Secondly the average vow is quite low – the second lowest in fact. That means that the focus this year is on the lower cost infantry rather than the larger Super-Heavies that both the Mechanicum and the Guard have in abundance. Maybe it’s time for the big guns to roll out? The interesting thing is that although 1 in 4 of you have made a second vow or more (quite high), those vows are just 10% of the first vows in terms of points… So, to sum up: complete your first vows ASAP to improve on your first vow completion rate and vow again keeping in mind that your average vow is less than 500pts. So anything above that will be raising your average! And remember, you are the guys who put the completion rate to the core of the ETL!

REALM OF CHAOS
With a completion rate of 23% Chaos appears to be in a good place. More importantly the re-vowing rate is at a respectable 28% which speaks a lot for the commitment in the faction. They retain the highest average vow in the ETL which means that second or subsequent vows may come at smaller and therefore more manageable chunks. The risk here is to lose steam. Just to point out that at the moment you have the same completion rate to the HH team, only they have more resources in their disposal. So you need to be ahead and you must do so relatively early – before the weight of the HH numbers create an irreversible situation. Other than that, Chaos seems to be doing fine.

HORUS HERESY
Will that be the year of HH? I have to say I’m impressed by the effort in this, admittedly, slow week. Your completion rate is a above the ETL average, you completed a strong 6.8k pts and your re-vowing rate of 23% gives you a comfortable lead – especially given the resources under your command. So what’s the downside? Well the downside is to lose momentum. To think that since you have the resources and the lead you can relax. Believe me, the large resources also present a challenge. If the completion rate drops – especially in the closing weeks of the event – then, trust me, it’s a long way to fall. So things may look impressive at this stage but with more than 100 participants the risk of leakage is high. Stay on track and you have nothing to fear. Relax and let the others do the job: disappointment guaranteed!

AS A LAST POINT I’D LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT TWO THINGS:

FOR THOSE WHO HAVE NOT YET SUBMITTED “BEFORE” PICS, WHEN YOU DO TAKE THEM, PLEASE EDIT THEM IN YOUR ORIGINAL VOW POST!
PLEASE ALL OF YOU CHECK THE SECOND POST OF YOUR STRATEGIUM TO MAKE SURE YOUR VOW IS CORRECTLY DEPICTED AND LINKED. LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUES.

So until next week, keep those completions coming!!! biggrin.png

CoffeeGrunt Veteran

CoffeeGrunt

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I think IFOR are really feeling the squeeze in terms of the lack of updates since last year, and it looks like most people gave it their all last year and don't have anything to paint. Don't know about the other factions in IFOR, but IG seems to have taken on very few new faces, and a fair few have moved on. :/

Aias Veteran

Aias

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Question for Captain Semper: I just bought the Renegade box over the weekend to bring my Knight House up to three members, currently none completed. The largest kit of the kind I've built and completely painted is a Riptide (done Baneblades, but they aren't really as complex as walker kits are), so I'm nervous about vowing all three. So, to get to the point, I'm going to try and get them all primed and ready, and then I'm going to undercoat all three with my airbrush this weekend. If I only vow one to be sure I can get it done during the ETL time constraints, is that too much work on the other two if I were to have time to vow them later?

Augustus b'Raass Venerable Brother

Augustus b'Raass

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Question for Captain Semper: I just bought the Renegade box over the weekend to bring my Knight House up to three members, currently none completed. The largest kit of the kind I've built and completely painted is a Riptide (done Baneblades, but they aren't really as complex as walker kits are), so I'm nervous about vowing all three. So, to get to the point, I'm going to try and get them all primed and ready, and then I'm going to undercoat all three with my airbrush this weekend. If I only vow one to be sure I can get it done during the ETL time constraints, is that too much work on the other two if I were to have time to vow them later?

That is a question only you yourself can answer. There are those, like JeffTibbetts, who take a year to complete a single Knight Titan, while others do four (4!) in one vow, next to four other vows in a single ETL. So it all depends on your own painting speed and quality requirements. 

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