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Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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=][= FIFTH WEEKLY UPDATE =][=

 

http://www.fortressoftheunforgiven.com/ETL_2013_Poster_00.jpg

 

So week 5 saw the closing of the doors to new participants with an astounding 349 Frater taking the Oath of Moment (+18% vs. last year)! The total amount of pledged points exceeded 300k. Most importantly, the participants are fairly evenly distributed with the DAs, Codex, BTs and Chaos ranging between 50-60 each (give or take). This makes for a fairly exciting couple of months going forward!


As the doors are now closed to new participants it’s time to form some faction-specific strategies. However, no matter the specifics of each faction, one consideration applies to all: Finish your first vows the earliest possible. That way you secure points for your faction while freeing yourself for additional vows if you feel like it. However if you finish your first vow late you may just run out of time for you second… And remember: IF YOU FAIL IN YOUR SECOND OR ANY SUBSEQUENT VOW THEN ALL PREVIOUS VOWS ARE NULLIFIED AND COUNT FOR NOTHING. So make sure you’ll have adequate time before you up the stakes!


As you can see, the table below is somewhat changed, in that it does not show number of participants in a separate column any more – as this is now a fixed number. It can still be found next to the faction name. However a new stat is making its appearance: Pts/vow or “average vow”. Lastly, I have added another row called “Total” and gives an overview of the entire event.


E TENEBRAE LUX II – Week 5
Faction Vows Points pledged Pts/vow Completions RateBlack Templars [56] 60 50,807 847 2,0334.0% Blood Angels [38] 41 34,812 849 2,447 7.0% Dark Angels [63] 77 54,562 709 7,746 14.2% Codex Chapters [62] 69 51,876 752 3,744 7.2% Space Wolves [39] 40 29,966 749 125 0.4% Chaos Legios [48] 57 42,433 744 3,589 8.5% Vive Imperium [27] 27 26,206 971 0 0% Horus Heresy [16] 17 14,494 853 920 6.3% Total [349] 387 304,942 788 20,026 6.6%


BLACK TEMPLARS
Well, with 56 participants the BTs are certainly one of the favourites again this year. Their slight numerical disadvantage can easily be covered – especially by a determined bunch such as them. However, zeal alone won’t cut it. Remember there is a limit of 5 vows this year – so a wave of last minute single mini entries is not an option. You have to make up for it by making vows somewhat above the ETL average while make sure you get a second vow in because although only 7 participants less than the DAs, you are 18 vows behind! The game for you will be played in the subsequent vows, more than any other faction!
 

BLOOD ANGELS
Hmm… Not a spectacular participation level but by no means a small one. Here apart from aiming for second vows you need to substantially increase the average vow too. Your positioning means that if your average vow is close to that of the BTs their superior resources will just smother you. Also if you look at the DAs it means you need a fair amount of 3rd vows in there too… You have higher average vow compared to DAs but your lack of human resources means more hard work for those who took the Oath of Moment!
 

DARK ANGELS
Clear favourites at this stage not only because of more participants, not only because of most completed points but because of the fairly large amount of subsequent vows made already. Sure their average vow is not very big – but it doesn’t have to be. Their superior numbers mean that with more manageable sized vows (and therefore with a higher probability of completion and re-vowing) are more than enough to give them the lead. Will they last? Remains to be seen!
 

CODEX CHAPTERS
Another faction with huge potential. At this stage they have the numbers, they have the commitment (total points pledged rival the DAs and the BTs) and their average vow is fairly low – a good thing in general as it means higher probability of completion. However they have yet to emulate the DAs in the early completions resulting in some 8 vows less and 50% fewer completions. Not too big a difference mind you, (at least in this stage) so everything is possible still. A weakness (if one really looks for one) is the relatively higher dependency on Mega – Vows compared to the DAs. A failed completion of one of those may change the game to the worse…
 

SPACE WOLVES
SWs are, like last year, fewer in numbers compared to their rivals. However last year they managed an amazing performance coming third overall while retaining second position up until the week before the last. How did they manage that? The only way possible: a lot of repeat vows and most importantly, high value vows! Where other factions were overcome with fatigue the SWs kept going, vowing 1k+ pts, vow after vow securing a position way above what their numbers would suggest. Can they repeat that this year? It’s not an easy way, but it’s the only way!
 

CHAOS LEGIOS
Chaos has managed a seriously impressive performance so far. Their early completions mean that now they are only two vows behind the BTs despite the latter enjoying a numerical advantage of 8 more participants. So the multiplier effect is now in full deployment BUT… the average vow still needs to come up. The hard truth is than with fewer numbers and an average vow below the ETL average the prospects are not looking good in the longer term. So unless some larger vows come along to drive the average vow some 150pts higher, the multiplier effect can only do so much…
 

VIVE IMPERIUM
The fewer numbers of the VI is a problem – no question about it. However they do have the highest average vow and if subsequent vows come in at the same high value range, then their position in the top ranks is guaranteed. But we need to see some completions coming soon – or else the entire Legio Ignatus won’t be enough to save them!
 

HORUS HERESY
Here we enter the realm of the connoisseurs… The deep understanding of the soul of each Legion can be seen in the work of the Great 16 who strive for perfection both in terms of technical quality and capturing the feel of this legendary bygone era! Although extremely difficult to challenge the more numerous factions, they are in a battle with their own souls (which is very appropriate in the HH context). So can they muster a completion rate close to 100%? Alternatively, can they muster the highest completion rate of the entire event? We’ll be closely watching…

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redmapa Veteran

redmapa

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Your over reliance in the old ways is your weakness Templar. The First Legion loughs at your loud statements. Prepare for complete and utter humiliation! 

 

The last legion will surprise you captain, we're not the emperor's champions for nothing!

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Tanhausen Veteran

Tanhausen

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Your over reliance in the old ways is your weakness Templar. The First Legion loughs at your loud statements. Prepare for complete and utter humiliation! 

 

The last legion will surprise you captain, we're not the emperor's champions for nothing!

 

There is nothing wrong with taking early to the chest what will happen to you guys on August 15th...

 

Maybe you do have a bit of sense behind all the FodaEmprah and litanies :P

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Retaliation Veteran

Retaliation

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Your over reliance in the old ways is your weakness Templar. The First Legion loughs at your loud statements. Prepare for complete and utter humiliation! 

 

The last legion will surprise you captain, we're not the emperor's champions for nothing!

Always knew the Black Templar were Alpha Legion in disguise!

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Honda Venerable Brother

Honda

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@ Honda: Your over reliance in the old ways is your weakness Templar. The First Legion loughs at your loud statements. Prepare for complete and utter humiliation!

 

Yes, we still rely on the "old" ways.

 

We did not feel the need to turn in the colors given to us by our father so that we may wear the color of lies. We did not abandon his dream so that we could conspire within a circle of traitors. We did not decide that subverting the truth and hiding acts of heresy was more important than prosecuting the faithless.

 

We...NEVER...attacked a brother legion!

 

The old ways...indeed.

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Captain Semper Venerable Brother

Captain Semper

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=][= SIXTH WEEKLY UPDATE =][=

 

http://www.fortressoftheunforgiven.com/ETL_2013_Poster_00.jpg

 

Week 6 was comparatively speaking a slow week. This was to be expected as it followed the hype of the closing of the doors to new participants in week 5 and the change of focus to completions vs. recruitment.


Now let me re-iterate the basic strategy that applies to all at this stage: Finish your first vows the earliest possible. That way you secure points for your faction while freeing yourself for additional vows if you feel like it. This is addressed especially to those with the more manageable vows of less than 500pts. By completing you also create momentum and transmit a drive to your fellow team mates with the larger vows to keep true to the cause.


However remember: IF YOU FAIL IN YOUR SECOND OR ANY SUBSEQUENT VOW THEN ALL PREVIOUS VOWS ARE NULLIFIED AND COUNT FOR NOTHING. So make sure you’ll have adequate time to finish before you up the stakes!


As a final reminder, we have now entered the most difficult phase of the event where the initial enthusiasm wanes and there is still enough time ahead to get a wrong sense of security. I only say this: the ETL will be won or lost in the next month. No matter the mobilization of the last three weeks, if the distance is too big by late July/early August it will just not be covered.


E TENEBRAE LUX II – Week 6
Black Templars [56] 61 51,497 844 2,824 5.5%
Blood Angels [38] 42 36,887 878 3,837 10.4%
Dark Angels [63] 82 56,520 689 11,790 20.9%
Codex Chapters [62] 69 51,876 752 4,224 8.1%
Space Wolves [39] 43 32,866 764 2,530 7.7%
Chaos Legios [48] 57 42,433 744 3,589 8.5%
Vive Imperium [27] 27 26,206 971 0 0%
Horus Heresy [16] 17 14,519 854 1,431 9.9%
Total [349] 398 312,804 786 30,225 9.7%


BLACK TEMPLARS
If zeal is to make a difference, now is the time to display it. Last year you won the event because of your consistent performance in July where the rest were catching the sun. This week you only increased your completions by less than 800pts – that is less than your average vow. More importantly your completion rate of just 5.5% (vs. a 10% average of the ETL) means you’re still largely immobile and deprive yourselves of the multiplying effect. Remember in order to take advantage of this your first vows must be completed as early as possible. So will you capture the lost ground in week 7? The DAs (as you may already know) are not in the business of forgiving…

BLOOD ANGELS
Although starting with a numerical disadvantage, the BAs are now third in terms of completed points and less than half an average vow to become second. WELL DONE!!! Yes it’s way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions but the important thing is, the BAs deliver results and with a completion rate of more than 10% it means that gradually second vows are being made, thus utilising their resources fairly efficiently. Keep it up guys, I want to see the BAs really showing that they are worthy of their painting legacy and put to shame their more arrogant rivals!

DARK ANGELS
This is a truly great performance! With a completion rate of almost 21% and a good 11.8k pts already under their belt, the DAs are gradually building a safe distance between them and their rivals. Furthermore 12 of their numbers (19%) already vowed twice and half of them completed and went for a third vow and one of them is now on his fourth! KEEP THE MOMENTUM GOING GUYS!!! July would be a difficult period – do not lose focus! Do not underestimate your rivals!

CODEX CHAPTERS
Right. I have to ring the alarm bell here. Your completion rate is below the ETL average which means you are not utilising your resources to the same degree as your rivals... Look you have what it takes to win this – do not let it slip through your hands. True you have a higher reliance to some mega vows but seriously, you need to get some of the smaller vows completed soon. This will secure some points and allow you to re-vow. Wait to the last minute and the mega-vows will just not be enough to save you. So regroup and counter attack while you still can shift the balance. July is unforgiving and so are the DAs!!!

SPACE WOLVES
Well, with 2.5k worth of completions you’re breathing down the neck of your immediate rivals. That means that you’re very much in the game, and the sluggishness displayed by other more populous factions allows you room to build up your presence and become, once again, a very clear threat to everyone. Now to do that, you have to make some more completions soon and increase both your vow-count (by pledging higher-than-average second vows) and your completion rate which currently lags the ETL average. July is a month of procrastination. Beat it and you’ll come out on top!

CHAOS LEGIOS
No completions this week. None, nada, zilch… Guys, no completions in a week can put you out of contesting the top positions for good. You’re now fourth but close to third position and even second position and with a completion rate below the ETL average it means you still have plenty of room to improve – you’re far from overstretched. So mobilise your considerable resources, finish up the smaller vows for some quick wins and move to second or subsequent vows to make up for whatever numerical disadvantage you suffer from… And guys? DEATH TO THE FALSE EMPEROR!!!

VIVE IMPERIUM
I think it’s high time for the big guns to make an appearance. Seriously. You, more than any other faction need the early completions. Your significant numerical disadvantage can only be mitigated by re-vowing (and with big vows at that). On the plus side, the Vive has the largest average vow which means it’s natural to take a bit longer for a wave of first vow completions to make an appearance – and when it does, the impact will be profound! Be that as it may, you are the only faction so far with no completions. So we wait. But don’t take too long!

HORUS HERESY
Connoisseur galore continues! The Great 16 continue walking into the valley of death and scoring quite well too! With almost 1.5k pts completed and a (slightly above average) completion rate of 10% this looks promising… however the same dangers exist for them like everybody else… July is a tough month as participants get a feeling of false security that the deadline is still far in the future while the initial enthusiasm wanes… So remain focused because you have to fight procrastination in this battle for your soul. We still expect the highest completion rate of the ETL coming from you guys!
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Hasdrubal Battle-Brother

Hasdrubal

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Titans are big projects to complete, and paint jobs better not rushed. I might get my Crusader to tabletop-ready status to declare it complete before going all out on weathering, we'll see. Still, I wouldn't expect a completion in the coming weeks due to the amount of time required, and family taking precedence over hobby in the little spare time I have at the moment.

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