[HH1.0] Thousand Sons tactica

[Baluc]

Mathhammer can only account for the % of dice rolls that miss as a factor of the sum adjusted for 100 individual instances. But probablity of a single D6 presents isn't mappable. Its quite possible to roll in a such a limited sample size a majority of 2's as you are 1's, which for example is why Hatred isn't exactly 16% better than Preferred Enemy . Which can result, when looking at a single instance a wild swing in your expected results, math still requires interpretation.

 

Hence why in war games I tend to trend towards units with smaller probability curves since in a 6 turn game your sample size is at most 12 attempts, but more likely between 4-5.

 

This example is a good one. Rotor cannons can expect a 6.6 unsaved wounds, Seekers re-rolling '1s' is 6.49 wounds assuming no cover. But less vulnerable to unfavourable distribution. The distinction is small, but important to note when determining the viability of units and their place in your army. Also remember that Seekers do the same damage against Terminators, and Power armoured models, and have applications against Custodes.

 

Anyway just things to keep in mind.

[Withershadow]

You are focusing on only half of the equation, though, thus tainting your argument.

 

Have you never heard of the principle of dicing your opponent to death? Yes, dice have random distribution, and for every instance of you getting garbage rolls, you get a hot streak, which is enhanced by the ability to re-roll your dice.  Yes, seekers are less likely to get a bad streak where you roll 40 dice with re-rolls and get a bunch of 1s and 2s, but they are equally less likely to get a good streak where you rip through a whole unit.  Have you never seen a unit of BS2 orks kill a whole squad of Terminators?

 

So you prefer more consistent but moderate results, that's fine, but that in no way invalidates the volume approach. Personally I don't like "moderate but consistent" results, because a wounded enemy is still a threat, and in many cases "moderate" is as good as "nothing". I rather have a higher chance to do critical damage/kill everything, which is what the mathhammer number gives you. Over the course of many games, you have better odds to do more significant damage with Rotors than Seekers. And again, that's ONLY against their preferred enemy, which is one unit in the enemy army, that your opponent has to expose to them. Shredding Rotors don't discriminate.

[Baluc]

You have an opportunity to for spike results, the mean remains the same approximately amount of damage against targets in the open. If you value the opportunity for that spike vs more specific tools against enemy unit types, then you take the support squad. Its not a better or worse argument its a situational comparison. I find units with low volatility more useful because you have low opportunity against high value targets usually only 1 turn. This is also why I don't love units like Marksmen Vets for heavy lifting too much volatility. They are however massively better troops than a Tactical squad because they have more all round capacity for damage.

 

Casino, and hot hand fallacies aren't very useful in Warhammer because you generally don't have the ability to pre-construct your hand in gambling. Everyone has had that guy roll a series of 6+ invulns against intant death weapons, but its not likely and building your list to consider that eventuality to seriously will lead to general poor results.

 

Anyway in a rule of cool discussion its basically whatever you like most, both units have pretty similar median results.

[Memento Of Prospero]

In regards to psykers generating VS choosing VS selecting, you have to look for precedents to confirm your case.

 

What is the tipycal text used for psykers that pick their powers rather than roll?

 

From what I can find, it's usually written loosely like so:

 

X can choose his powers from X discipline RATHER than generating them normally.

 

If it doesnt follow a previously established trend, it should be considered suspect.

[Supe robot gangster #1]

In regards to psykers generating VS choosing VS selecting, you have to look for precedents to confirm your case.

 

What is the tipycal text used for psykers that pick their powers rather than roll?

 

From what I can find, it's usually written loosely like so:

 

X can choose his powers from X discipline RATHER than generating them normally.

 

If it doesnt follow a previously established trend, it should be considered suspect.

Unfortunately with FW this isn't always as clear cut as it seems. Zardu Layak simply states "may select powers from pyromancy or malefic daemonology" which according to FW means you get to pick rather than randomly generate, the only difference with the sekhmet is substituting the word select with choose, as opposed to all other units which are generate in place of select or choose. It's a very very very grey area, and one that's hopefully cleared up in a future faq. But until then the precedence with FW is that select means pick, and choose meaning essentially the same thing, therefore if have no problem with an opponent choosing power from the two listed disciplines.

[Charlo]

Yeah, that is a 40k precedent. Not 30k imo.

 

Though that is a great point.

[Bomtek80]

 

In regards to psykers generating VS choosing VS selecting, you have to look for precedents to confirm your case.

What is the tipycal text used for psykers that pick their powers rather than roll?

From what I can find, it's usually written loosely like so:

X can choose his powers from X discipline RATHER than generating them normally.

If it doesnt follow a previously established trend, it should be considered suspect.

Unfortunately with FW this isn't always as clear cut as it seems. Zardu Layak simply states "may select powers from pyromancy or malefic daemonology" which according to FW means you get to pick rather than randomly generate, the only difference with the sekhmet is substituting the word select with choose, as opposed to all other units which are generate in place of select or choose. It's a very very very grey area, and one that's hopefully cleared up in a future faq. But until then the precedence with FW is that select means pick, and choose meaning essentially the same thing, therefore if have no problem with an opponent choosing power from the two listed disciplines.

Adepticon issued their FAQ and errata for all their 30k events a few days ago. They nerfed Sekhmet by substituting the word "generate" instead of the word "choose."

[Baluc]

Dicing your opponent is why 5th edition IG, currently eldar and Tau are so good. You can only make so many saves even with FNP.

 

Those armies take the spike potential of rotor cannons and multiply it by ten, for less points per shot. Its not really a super relevant comparison. Eldar are putting out something like 60 s6 shots a turn across their troops choices.

 

On Sehkmet choosing vs generating? Probably a GotCK nerf rather than a Sehkmet nerf. But even with just primaris powers they have a lot of utility. The most attractive thing about them is actually force and not their powers. 

[Charlo]

 

 

In regards to psykers generating VS choosing VS selecting, you have to look for precedents to confirm your case.

What is the tipycal text used for psykers that pick their powers rather than roll?

From what I can find, it's usually written loosely like so:

X can choose his powers from X discipline RATHER than generating them normally.

If it doesnt follow a previously established trend, it should be considered suspect.

Unfortunately with FW this isn't always as clear cut as it seems. Zardu Layak simply states "may select powers from pyromancy or malefic daemonology" which according to FW means you get to pick rather than randomly generate, the only difference with the sekhmet is substituting the word select with choose, as opposed to all other units which are generate in place of select or choose. It's a very very very grey area, and one that's hopefully cleared up in a future faq. But until then the precedence with FW is that select means pick, and choose meaning essentially the same thing, therefore if have no problem with an opponent choosing power from the two listed disciplines.

Adepticon issued their FAQ and errata for all their 30k events a few days ago. They nerfed Sekhmet by substituting the word "generate" instead of the word "choose."

 

And that is very nice for Adepticon but it is not what the book says.

[Withershadow]

That Adepticon FAQ had too many people involved so there's a lot of dross.

 

They outright changed rules to nerf Thousand Sons but forgot about invisibility. One of the writers clearly plays Word Bearers because they got no less than 4 distinct buffs that also change rules, but this time in their favor. They half answered questions and missed other pressing issues. The FAQ is 90% messy garbage. I am protesting by bringing the most ball-breaking Reductor army I can build. Narrative this.

[Baluc]

That Adepticon FAQ had too many people involved so there's a lot of dross.

 

They outright changed rules to nerf Thousand Sons but forgot about invisibility. One of the writers clearly plays Word Bearers because they got no less than 4 distinct buffs that also change rules, but this time in their favor. They half answered questions and missed other pressing issues. The FAQ is 90% messy garbage. I am protesting by bringing the most ball-breaking Reductor army I can build. Narrative this.

 

I considered bringing the most monstrous abuse of the ruleset, but ultimately decided it would just really be punishing myself. 

[Spiral]

I'm likely betraying my ignorance here...but is the FAQ widely available? I did some significant googling and did not find it. 

[Withershadow]

I considered bringing the most monstrous abuse of the ruleset, but ultimately decided it would just really be punishing myself.

That is why I am going to drink. Heavily. To excess. I hope I get to play a lot of Word Bearers.

[Jarkaira]

Spiral, there you go:

https://goo.gl/gYpm5o

I dropped out after they announced multiple melta bombs. Well atleast there is a lot of other stuff to be done. Like drinking.

[Bomtek80]

That Adepticon FAQ had too many people involved so there's a lot of dross.

They outright changed rules to nerf Thousand Sons but forgot about invisibility. One of the writers clearly plays Word Bearers because they got no less than 4 distinct buffs that also change rules, but this time in their favor. They half answered questions and missed other pressing issues. The FAQ is 90% messy garbage. I am protesting by bringing the most ball-breaking Reductor army I can build. Narrative this.

What do you mean by saying the FAQ had too many people involved and there's lots of dross? Just curious.

 

They also revamped the FAQ right after issuing it. Initially they were not counting dreadnought Talons or Sub-Orbital Strike Wings as one unit of vehicles for the BA armies. Each vehicle in the talon counted as a separate vehicle unit. This concerned the Legion rules for the BA players.

 

Immediately some BA players bitched and whined because now their army lists were illegal and would have to redo or paint something else. So the Adepticon guys changed the rule back in their favor because the BA players cried about it.

 

I tried to argue my case about the Sekhmet (in a respectful manner) but ultimately they said no, the ruling would stand and that the Sekhmet were good enough as is. So we get to randomly generate powers now instead of choosing.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Bomtek80

[Withershadow]

I know some of the people on the "committee", they were basically all polling their friends on what they want to do.

 

Sekhmet with only two crappy disciplines they can randomly roll in are effectively garbage compared to regular legion terminators with ML1. So Sekhmet can't choose their powers, but Zardu can select them. Lorgar can now select Malefic Daemonology powers even though the rules are clear he can only select TK and Divination. Mhara Ghal Dreadnoughts which are corrosive, daemonic entities that warp and destroy realspace around them now can go into drop pods. Null deploy lists are super viable because you keep rolling for reserves until the game ends even if you have zero models on the table. 

 

Oh yeah, and witchfires aren't witchfires. *eyeroll*

Edited March 4, 2017 by Slipstreams
Keep it family friendly.

[Runefyre]

They did nerf Invisible Magnus, which is definitely a good thing.

 

The Sekhmet ruling is puzzling. I thought it was okay that they could choose their powers considering the disciplines they have access to.

 

Even with random psychic powers, they do everything other elite terminators do for the same price (as justaerin, and less than Varagyr).

 

Though Lorgar's ruling is wierd. But I'm not sure it's game-breaking as he still perils on any doubles.

[Bomtek80]

I know some of the people on the "committee", they were basically all polling their friends on what they want to do.

 

Sekhmet with only two crappy disciplines they can randomly roll in are effectively garbage compared to regular legion terminators with ML1. So Sekhmet can't choose their powers, but Zardu can select them. Lorgar can now select Malefic Daemonology powers even though the rules are clear he can only select TK and Divination. Mhara Ghal Dreadnoughts which are corrosive, daemonic entities that warp and destroy realspace around them now can go into drop pods. Null deploy lists are super viable because you keep rolling for reserves until the game ends even if you have zero models on the table. 

 

Oh yeah, and witchfires aren't witchfires. *eyeroll*

I might have to disagree with you there about the Terminators. The Sekhmet, even without the ability to choose their powers are still I'd say a step above the regular Legion Terminators with ML 1. An extra wound, force weapons, Stubborn, BoP Lvl 2, and a very reasonable cost keep the Sekhmet still a bit better than the regular termies. Removing their ability to choose takes them from being a GREAT unit down to merely being a good/decent unit IMHO.

[Bomtek80]

Also, i think people were making out Magnus to be some giant boogeyman who teleports around while invisible, roided out on Biomancy and throwing out D novas left and right ending all games by turn 2.

 

Seriously, there are three novas in all the brb psychic powers. They are all three in different disciplines and none of them are better than ap4. So at worst you would trash some vehicles and maybe some monstrous creatures. Most regular Marine infantry lose a couple guys and shrug it off. You still have to roll randomly to even try to get the powers anyway, then add 2 more WC on top of the spell, and roll another 2d6 and hope you get a 7 or more.

 

Hell, if anything I thought it might help convince people that playing lots of infantry might be a thing again.

[Alpharius164]

Also, i think people were making out Magnus to be some giant boogeyman who teleports around while invisible, roided out on Biomancy and throwing out D novas left and right ending all games by turn 2.

Seriously, there are three novas in all the brb psychic powers. They are all three in different disciplines and none of them are better than ap4. So at worst you would trash some vehicles and maybe some monstrous creatures. Most regular Marine infantry lose a couple guys and shrug it off. You still have to roll randomly to even try to get the powers anyway, then add 2 more WC on top of the spell, and roll another 2d6 and hope you get a 7 or more.

Hell, if anything I thought it might help convince people that playing lots of infantry might be a thing again.

Agree with this. Personally I'm more interested in rolling on biomancy instead of fishing for invis and novas - guaranteed smite is deadly with mind wrath, and buffs for him and his army (especially endurance) as well as life leech for growing back wounds are all pretty appealling... coupled with levitation sekhmet (assuming they do choose their powers) and you've got a lot of power with little left to chance pre-game.

[Runefyre]

You still have a good chance of grabbing invisibility with a Praetor. Just the fact that that combo could (has a decent chance of) happen is terrifying.

 

 

 

I know some of the people on the "committee", they were basically all polling their friends on what they want to do.
 
Sekhmet with only two crappy disciplines they can randomly roll in are effectively garbage compared to regular legion terminators with ML1. So Sekhmet can't choose their powers, but Zardu can select them. Lorgar can now select Malefic Daemonology powers even though the rules are clear he can only select TK and Divination. Mhara Ghal Dreadnoughts which are corrosive, daemonic entities that warp and destroy realspace around them now can go into drop pods. Null deploy lists are super viable because you keep rolling for reserves until the game ends even if you have zero models on the table. 
 
Oh yeah, and witchfires aren't witchfires. *eyeroll*

I might have to disagree with you there about the Terminators. The Sekhmet, even without the ability to choose their powers are still I'd say a step above the regular Legion Terminators with ML 1. An extra wound, force weapons, Stubborn, BoP Lvl 2, and a very reasonable cost keep the Sekhmet still a bit better than the regular termies. Removing their ability to choose takes them from being a GREAT unit down to merely being a good/decent unit IMHO.

 

They're really good for their points even with generate instead of choose (which again I disagree with as those disciplines aren't that terrifying).

 

What sekhmet need is a points hike so they stop making justaerin, varagyr, and deathshroud ineffecient.

[Baluc]

Biomancy Magnus is best Magnus. Fishing for invisibility was never the "best" choice just the most annoying result. Believe me after facing Biomancy Magnus you will wish he had fished for invis.

 

Besides you can still thunderblitz an invisible unit.

 

Maybe 1ksons will be my traitor legion since I got rid of my SoH...

[Mango Polo]

How about sticking to tactics rather than going on again and again on Sekhmet point costs? :P

[Baluc]

How many masterly levels are you guys planning in your armies? In my mind it looks like @2k I'm between 6-8, and @2.5 between 10-13.

[Alpharius164]

How many masterly levels are you guys planning in your armies? In my mind it looks like @2k I'm between 6-8, and @2.5 between 10-13.

I drafted a quick Guard of the Crimson King list and ended up with 15 in just over 2K. Obviously I'll have to drop a couple of things to get to 2K but you're still looking at 12-14.